WallStreetWeather.net New Moon Stock Market Forecast: July 19 – August 1, 2012

The union of the Moon (sentiment) and Sun (speculation) at the New Moon represents a new beginning each month. The planetary energies present at the New Moon influence the entire lunar cycle (July 19 – August 16, 2012).

The Moon symbolizes what we need to feel physically and emotionally secure. Food/water, home, and family are the essentials needed to survive and feel nurtured. Domestic security is the central focus with the New Moon in its home sign Cancer.

Food and water supplies, real estate, farming, and the environment are ruled by the Moon and Cancer. But with the New Moon squaring Saturn in Libra, food and water supplies can be tight due to harsh weather conditions and other environmental factors. Saturn restricts and limits supplies in some way which raises prices. The fires and extreme heat in most parts of the U.S. have resulted in historically severe drought which has necessitated some parts of the country to place restrictions on water usage. Strained relationships, collaborations, and alliances could lead to breakups.

Because Mercury the planetary energy of communication, movement, and commerce is retrograde until August 8, the Cancer New Moon is the time to initiate action using new ways to handle existing and past issues that need to be resolved. Mercury in Leo’s favorable aspects to Mars in Libra (July 22), Jupiter (July 24), and Uranus in Aries (July 25) occur as Jupiter favorably interacts with Uranus (July 22).

These energies bring the excitement of new discoveries and technological innovations. Due to Mercury retrograde, July 25 is the second harmonious alignment between Mercury and Uranus. The first one occurred on July 4 when CERN announced there was a 99.999% chance they discovered the Higgs boson, the particle that gives mass to the universe. The Economist wrote:

 “Without the Higgs there would be no mass. And without mass, there would be no stars, no planets and no atoms. And certainly no human beings. Indeed, there would be no history.”
And since we are made from the universe, it is only natural that we are affected the cycles of the planets! :-)

The final Mercury/Uranus alignment occurs on August 18, the day after the Leo New Moon which is the time to really get going on projects that promote your personal goals and professional objectives.

Cancer is symbolized by the crab that carries its home on its back and moves sideways, ready to claw its way out of a threatening situation to protect its turf. Snails also carry their home on their back but move slowly forward. With the Cancer New Moon squaring Saturn and Mercury retrograde, the stock market likely moves sideways to slowly upward with the upside gains moderate in balance.

Full Moon over the Federal Reserve
The Cancer New Moon conjoining the Federal Reserve’s natal Neptune indicates market sentiment has become too addicted to its Fed fix. In the Gemini New Moon Cycle Forecast (see entry for Wednesday, June 20), I described why I believe the Bernanke “Put” has expired.

Saturn’s square to the New Moon reflects that monetary policy has reached its limit because the Fed is exerting too much pressure on the Treasury and mortgage markets which risks throwing the structure of the financial system dangerously out of balance.

Once the Fed reduces its purchases, there will be less support for capital gains in the bond markets. Without an incentive for capital gains, long term interest rates at their current level cannot be sustained. For example, CALPERS reported a 1% investment return for the past year which exemplifies the breaking point under the current conditions.

Just because the Fed never wants the market to believe its toolkit is empty, Chairman Bernanke has clearly stated the limits (Saturn!) of the Fed’s market support while not acquiescing to his critics that the Fed’s toolkit is empty. The Chairman is simply stating that under the current conditions, the risks of additional quantitative easing outweigh the diminishing returns.

Full Moons bring full awareness as the Moon shines like a spotlight on issues that need our attention. The August 1 FOMC announcement at 2:15 PM occurs hours before the August 1 Full Moon in Aquarius which can bring unexpected shocks and reversals.

Biggest Market Moving Days: July 20, 23-24, 30.

All times listed are EDT.

Thursday, July 19
The Moon enters Leo at 6:13 AM until entering Virgo Saturday at 1:24 PM. The Moon in the sign of the Sun and the Sun in the sign ruled by the Moon as the Moon begins a new monthly cycle can increase confidence to speculate.

Positive.

Friday, July 20 (Options expiration)
The Moon occults Mercury at 3:34 AM. (The Moon will also occult Mercury October 16, November 14, and December 11.) By “blocking” Mercury, the Moon is bringing the themes symbolized by Mercury into public consciousness. Since Mercury is retrograde in Leo, it’s important to pay particular attention to what current and former leaders are saying at this time; new information could contradict what had previously been communicated. New developments could be reported connected to insider trading and/or trading activity (such as JPMorgan Chase’s CIU “whale” trade, for example).

There could be a push/pull between positive and negative sentiment that at a minimum keeps losses less than they would otherwise be. A tense alignment between Jupiter in Gemini and Saturn in Libra could increase volatility today as expectations might need to be dialed down.

Negative bias, but potential for conditions to improve or even reverse in the late morning.

Monday, July 23
The Moon is in Void-of-Course in Virgo since 8:44 PM Sunday evening until entering Libra at 6:38 PM.(1) The Moon in Mercury’s sign combined with the Void Moon could increase some of the communication, schedule and travel snafus associated with Mercury retrograde.

The Sun entered its home sign Leo yesterday morning until August 22. Other planetary influences aside, the Sun in Leo is confident taking risks. The Sun and Leo rule creative and leisure pursuits, and the Sun’s transit in Leo correspond to the most popular time of the year for vacation. (With the Sun and Mercury retrograde in Leo, the next couple weeks are in sync for visiting a favorite vacation spot and engaging in more “play time” before the action starts to heat up again.)

Favorable aspects between Jupiter and Uranus as well as Mercury and Mars could see the market experience its first positive Monday in several weeks, providing that potential geopolitical shocks especially related to Iran and Syria can be contained. (Mars in Libra opposes Iran’s natal Sun in Aries and conjoins the Assad regime’s natal Uranus which conjoins Mars in Libra and squares progressed Mercury retrograde in Capricorn.) Crude oil could experience larger moves during the next two days. (The potential for an outbreak of violence in Nigeria could affect its oil flow.) Anytime the energy of Uranus is involved, there’s a potential for unexpected moves and an intraday reversal.

Positive.

Tuesday, July 24:
With the Moon in Libra, the focus could be on financial agreements and whether the parties are living up to them. A sextile between Mercury and Jupiter offers an opportunity to renegotiate previous agreements or those that previously failed to reach fruition. The Mercury/Jupiter influence could indicate upward revisions; however, the market’s high expectations could indicate that any disappointment reported could be overdone. An awkward alignment between the Sun and Neptune in Pisces enhances the market’s reaction of hope vs. contagion concerns. (The Moon in Libra could reflect that market sentiment vacillates between the two.)

Negative bias, but potential for improvement or even a late day turnaround.

Wednesday, July 25
The Nasdaq could be the best performer today with Mercury in a harmonious alignment to Uranus. The Libra Moon becomes Void at 11:22 AM; Moon enters Scorpio at 10:29 PM until shifting into Sagittarius Saturday at 1:18 AM for the weekend.

Choppy/mixed to positive.

Thursday, July 26
The First Quarter Moon in Scorpio (4:56 AM) and Mercury’s awkward alignment to Pluto in Capricorn could indicate the market is obsessed about debt, interest rates, and Fed easing talk. Previously secret information could be revealed.

Mixed to negative.

Friday, July 27
Seesaws back and forth between negative and positive; ends mixed.

Monday, July 30
Mercury’s conjunction to the Sun on Saturday marked the halfway point of its retrograde cycle. The midpoint of Mercury’s retrograde cycle can signal a shift in sentiment; or the market maintains its current pattern or lack thereof until after Mercury stations direct August 8.

It’s back to business after the Moon enters Capricorn at 3:29 AM until Wednesday. M&A activity, speculation about developments in the Eurozone debt crisis are two possible potentials indicated with the Sun in an awkward alignment to Pluto the same day the Moon occults Pluto for the second time since the July 3 Capricorn Full Moon. What the market might view as favorable might be viewed differently by the public.

Positive.

Tuesday, July 31
The Leo Sun harmonizing with Uranus in Aries can increase confidence in the future. Venus in Gemini has now moved past the degree it stationed retrograde on May 15. Venus harmonizing with Saturn can increase the desire to spend and invest albeit selectively.

Positive.

Wednesday, August 1
Expect the unexpected with the Moon in Aquarius at 5:56 AM until Friday morning. Especially with the Full Moon at 11:27 PM tonight in this wild, crazy, and zany sign. All the gazillion times that super annoying word “uncertainty” is uttered describes Aquarius and its planetary ruler Uranus.

Whatever you think the market is going to do, it probably won’t because this energy likes to shock (or disappoint if you expected to be shocked). The Moon opposing Mercury at midday could reverse sentiment leading up to the Full Moon.

As described earlier, the FOMC announcement is scheduled to be released at 2:15 PM.

Part II of this Forecast will cover the period from the Aquarius Full Moon through August 16.

(1)The period of time about every 2.5 days between when the Moon has finished making major aspects to the planets before the Moon enters the next sign is when the Moon is considered to be “Void-of-Course.” There’s a greater tendency for things to go nowhere or unfold in unexpected ways. These time periods are best suited for routine matters and “going with the flow” rather than making major decisions, purchases, or initiating action where a specific outcome is desired.

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2 comments:

vickv said...

Deborah, i guess everytime markets run out of steam they look for free printing from Helicopter Ben and want to get Bailout # 3, i read your previous posts and you seem to indicate that chairman Bernanke will possibly NOT do QE# 3 this time and will disappoint the traders on Aug 1st.
are you still of the same opinion even after rumors of serious intervention in wallstreet journal yesterday on july 24th.
thanks for taking time to do such great reports.
vickv

SethD said...

It appears the market is continuing the wildly bullish moves, instigated by the continued promise of $$ printing by our Fed, the ECB, China, Japan... its pretty hard to beat...

It seems Jupiter in Gemini is staying true to wild swings both ways, but it does not seem to be leading to a breakdown in the near future, more likely retest of year highs soon, maybe a sharp correction into 2nd pluto/uranus square coming up, then a run to retest all time highs, crazy as it seems

some big commodity sectors are also looking like theyre bottoming/have bottomed, and present some opportunities into this fall/winter