WallStreetWeather.net Gemini New Moon Cycle Forecast Part I: June 19 – July 2, 2012

The union of the Moon (sentiment) and Sun (speculation) at the New Moon represents a new beginning each month. This is a time to begin new endeavors and work with the planetary energies of the New Moon which influences the entire lunar cycle (June 19 – July 18).

The New Moon of June 19, 2012 is in Gemini which facilitates the circulation of ideas, information, products, and services. The Gemini New Moon is the time to develop new ideas, get your message out, learn new things, and explore locally. Gemini energy is fueled by variety and constant activity which will be more than amply fulfilled now with the convergence of challenging alignments between Uranus and Pluto, Jupiter and Neptune.

Symbolized by the twins, Gemini energy often manifests in pairs. This is the second New Moon in Gemini.(1) The New Moon on May 20 was a Solar Eclipse that occurred at the beginning of Gemini while this second New Moon occurs at the end of Gemini. This second Gemini New Moon cycle represents a time to tie up loose ends. Gemini represents the transition phase that comes with the change of seasons. In the northern hemisphere, spring is ending as summer begins.   With the exception of the Moon changing from Gemini to Cancer at the Summer Solstice, the energies of the Gemini New Moon remain influential June 20 - September 22.

Gemini New Moon #1 formed a frictional relationship to Neptune in Pisces (May 23). Exactly one month later (June 23), Gemini New Moon #2 is in a harmonious relationship to Neptune. This energy makes it easier to access intuition, especially with Mercury in Cancer. Mercury in Cancer the sign of the Moon is about going with what your gut instinct is telling you.

Gemini is ruled by Mercury which squared Neptune at Gemini New Moon #1. Now Jupiter is in Gemini squaring Neptune, creating an overflow of information that can create confusion over what to believe. Gemini rules the lungs and the nervous system. Taking a moment periodically to slowly inhale and exhale a few times can help to calm and focus.

Mercury: What’s On the Market’s Mind
Mercury favorably aspects Mars in Virgo (the other sign ruled by Mercury). This is an opportunity to act on new ideas, especially as Mars is moving into a new phase of its long journey it began in Virgo on November 10, 2011.(2) Thoughts are focused on creating greater financial security with Mercury squaring Saturn in Libra. Saturn’s energies are strong now as the planetary energy that rules government, corporations, and all types of structures, stations direct June 25 after being retrograde since February 7.

Trading is ruled by Mercury. The New Moon and Mercury with Mars increases enthusiasm for risk taking. But with Mercury’s square to Saturn, there are fears that are likely to be confirmed by reports that economic growth is stalling or slowing down throughout the world. Without strong fundamentals supporting further growth, there’s a reluctance for the market to move beyond its recent range unless monetary and fiscal policies appear to be supportive of additional risk taking.

Venus: Money, Assets, Banking
Libra is ruled by Venus, the planetary energy of money, assets, and banking. Venus favorably aspecting Uranus in Aries can potentially describe an unexpected second chance financial opportunity. Venus has been in Gemini since April 3 and retrograde since May 15. Retrograde periods return back to past events and issues that have not been fully resolved.

Retrograde planets tend to bring market reversals; Venus retrograde seeks equilibrium. The stock market continued its downward trend after Venus stationed retrograde, with the Dow and S&P500 declining to their lowest levels of 2012 at the June 4 Lunar Eclipse in Sagittarius. This was the day before Venus conjoined the Sun which marked the midpoint of the Venus retrograde cycle and the start of a new Venus cycle. 29 days after Venus retrograde (on the day the Moon was in Venus-ruled Taurus) the value of the Dow and S&P returned to pre-retrograde levels. As described in my post on the Venus in Gemini cycle, the market’s performance now is strongly correlated to policies proposed or enacted by leaders – especially central bankers.

During the Venus retrograde cycle there is a tendency for the market to move higher around the time Venus stations direct (June 27). Such a move or peak at the time of Venus direct tends to be followed by a decline. Venus and Libra rule relationships. During this time Venus is engaged in relationships with Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto at the same time Jupiter and Neptune and Uranus and Pluto are engaged in challenging alignments. Venus appears to be playing the mediator by stationing direct right in the middle of a jam-packed week of planetary events that ends the month of June and the second quarter.

What is notable about the Venus direct station is that it occurs 12 hours after the First Quarter Moon in Libra. The Moon/Venus/Saturn in Libra is about paying attention to financial fundamentals and the structural issues that need to be resolved. Yet it can also indicate that leaders and financial regulators are still trying to buy more time.

As Venus stations direct June 27, it will be at its closest approach to conjoining Jupiter in Gemini and squaring Neptune. Although Venus conjoining Jupiter can expand financial optimism, spending, and therefore inflate stock prices, what these energies definitely do is expand the magnitude of market direction. Venus exactly squared Neptune April 5, the day of the Libra Full Moon. This tends to be a bearish energy as it can dissolve financial illusions. There could be credit-related issues.

Planetary Pairs Pileup: Uranus square Pluto and Jupiter square Neptune
In keeping with the dualistic theme of the double Gemini New Moon cycle, there are two major planetary events that occur two days in a row.

June 24 marks the first of a series of seven exact squares between Uranus in Aries and Pluto in Capricorn unfolding during the next three years.(3) As I have described in several posts, these two planets are in the “crisis in action” phase of their cycle that began at their conjunction in Virgo during 1965-66. These energies have been growing stronger for the past two years now. (The alignment reached its closest point in early August during the debt ceiling debacle and S&P’s subsequent downgrade of the USA’s long term credit rating.)

Uranus in Aries creates extreme and unexpected events in order to shock individuals into action. This energy describes revolutionary changes that lead to much needed reforms and technological breakthroughs. At the other extreme, this energy can be dictatorial and snatch civil freedoms under the guise that such actions are meant to uphold individual freedoms.

Pluto in Capricorn exposes all the corruption and cronyism that’s been kept under the surface in government, corporate, and societal structures so that it can be transformed. Pluto in Capricorn describes the plutocrats who comprise the smallest segment of society, using their wealth and power to gain more for themselves at the expense of the nation’s wellbeing. The plutocrats know that revolutionary change and innovation is upon us so they frantically seek to cement the status quo and old line industries using extremists and religious groups to do their bidding.

Challenging relationships between planets describe situations that motivate action. Uranus and Pluto actually have much in common. Both planetary energies work to shake things up so that what is corrupt and outmoded can die to be transformed and reborn into something new (and hopefully) improved. This is how civilization evolves.

Uranus brings high volatility, sudden reversals, and sharp moves that break through support and resistance levels. Uranus runs fast anyway, and Aries accelerates the speed. The extreme nature of Uranus brings unexpected and shocking events that occur out of the blue, such as the “flash crash” or a “black swan.”

Pluto describes extreme financial conditions, from enormous wealth to bankruptcy and poverty. Pluto makes money using other people’s money. Contrary to all the free market b.s., Pluto in Capricorn describes “capitalists” leveraging the government to their own advantage. Any financial product that lacks transparency such as bond and derivatives trading comes under Pluto’s dark and secretive domain. Pluto rules debt which has come back to haunt individuals and governments around the globe since Pluto entered Capricorn in 2008. Delevering takes time.

Even though each point in time is unique, looking at past cycles with a similar planetary pattern can provide clues. The last time Uranus in Aries squared Pluto (then in Capricorn’s opposite sign Cancer), was 1932-34 when Uranus and Pluto were in the waning rather than the growth phase of their cycle that ended with the birth of their current cycle that began on October 9, 1965.

The Dow sharply declined and hit its historic low on July 8, 1932 in between the first (April 21) and second (September 2) Uranus/Pluto squares, and then began its recovery. The Dow declined into the third alignment on March 8, 1933, followed by a sharp rise, decline and rise again into their fourth alignment (November 5, 1933), and continued to rise into their final one on January 18, 1934.(4)

The Uranus/Pluto squares influence a long period of time that extends well beyond their exact alignments. Their energies can be more influential when other planets interact with them.

The Sun in Cancer squares Uranus and opposes Pluto June 29. Pluto’s energies are especially emphasized as it is at its closest distance to Earth this year, having reached the midpoint of its retrograde cycle. And the Moon will be in Pluto-ruled Scorpio. How these energies play out in the market depends whether leaders can reach agreement over debt-related issues. (June 29 is the conclusion of a two day EU summit.) Geopolitically, these energies can describe power struggles for leadership and dictatorial actions by leaders that can lead to uprisings.

The action really heats up July 17-18 as Mars in Libra opposes Uranus and squares Pluto as Mars harmonizes with Jupiter and Jupiter makes a stressful alignment to Pluto. Additionally, the Moon in Cancer interacts with Pluto, Uranus, and Saturn. The erratic energies of Uranus are strong now as Uranus appears motionless in the sky having stationed retrograde July 13.

Geopolitical tensions could be running high as nations and warring factions fiercely protect their turf. There is greater potential for property damage now which could be the result of extreme geophysical and weather conditions such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, hurricanes/monsoons, and extreme weather conditions such as heat waves/droughts that spark wildfires and severe storms that cause flooding. The potential for travel and mining accidents is also higher now.

This could be a time of market instability and rapid reversals. Positive developments can bring sharp turnarounds. On the negative side, the market could be concerned about borrowing costs, bank runs, and counterparty risks in the Eurozone.

Financials are likely to be in focus August 15-16 as Venus in Cancer opposes Pluto and squares Uranus as Mars conjoins Saturn in Libra. The downward pressure on asset value on the 15th could be reversed the following day.

Jupiter is growth and expansion; Saturn is stalled, slow, and contracting conditions. Mere moments after Jupiter squares Neptune June 25, Saturn in Libra turns direct. Large scale events unfolding now are globally inteconnected in some way as Neptune dissolves boundaries, distance and time. (See the section on Jupiter square Neptune within my post on Jupiter in Gemini.)

Largest potential market moving days: June 20, 25, 27, 29, July 2.

NOTE: Even though this post is being published as the New Moon cycle unfolds, I have kept the forecasts and added additional commentary in italics for June 19-22 to understand the planetary energies that were in play.

Tuesday, June 19
The New Moon in Gemini at 11:02 AM shifts into its home sign Cancer at 1:34 PM until late Thursday evening. The Moon in Cancer seeks safety and security.

Positive bias.

Although the New Moon can be the start of a buying cycle, I didn’t think the influences today would be as bullish as they turned out to be on the market’s high expectation for the Fed to do something big.

Wednesday, June 20
The combination of Venus in a stressful alignment to Pluto, Mercury square Saturn, and Venus favorably aspecting Uranus today creates a mixture of positive and negative market indicators. In my Venus retrograde post I stated that Mercury square Saturn tends to be a negative influence on the market. Summer officially begins at 7:09 PM EDT when the Sun enters Cancer until July 22. Cancer rules real estate, consumables, and seeks domestic security.

Positive and strongest early before turning mixed and then selling off.

In light of the market’s disappointment of no QE3 and what Chairman Bernanke said during his press conference, it was surprising the market held up (the Dow declined 92 points during the press conference before recovering to close positive).

Federal Reserve:
In my Venus post I wrote that the Fed would not be announcing QE3, but stated that “Venus retrograde could indicate the Fed renews Operation Twist.”

Mercury in Cancer squaring Saturn in Libra certainly describes the changes in communication in the FOMC statement and Committee members downgrading their projections to reflect slower economic growth.

Operation Twist was renewed through year end to the tune of an additional $267 billion which was smaller than the first $400 billion Twist. Mercury square Saturn reflects that today was the first time Chairman Bernanke alluded to the limitations the Fed is struggling with. Along with that announcement, Chairman Bernanke admitted during the press conference that he does not have any more short term Treasuries to Twist, while at the same time alluding to the difficulties in acquiring the long term Treasuries. Chairman Bernanke also spent a great deal of time discussing the increased weight of risks in further expanding the Fed’s balance sheet do not outweigh the potential rewards. The Chairman made it clear that no substantial policy actions will be taken unless there is a real threat of deflation.

In other words, the “Bernanke Put” has expired.

Thursday, June 21
Positive and strongest early before weakening and turning negative in the afternoon.

After briefly being positive and strongest early, the market turned negative and the declines accelerated as the day progressed. The Dow closed down 251 points, its second largest decline since June 1. I had expected the drop that occurred today to have happened yesterday.

The seasonal turning points of the year when the Sun enters Aries, Cancer, Libra, and Capricorn, tend to increase volatility and can create a reversal as planets entering these signs initiate action. Due to the stronger confluence of planetary aspects together with the Fed meeting, I thought the market would react ahead of when the Sun actually entered Cancer.

Saturn describes delays and delayed reactions. The Moon describes the market’s mood, and the Moon in Cancer squared Saturn and conjoined Mercury, accentuating the energies of Wednesday’s Mercury/Saturn square.

A plethora of downbeat commentary and worse than expected economic reports that began with China and Eurozone manufacturing was followed up with weaker U.S. data. (This energy is accentuated in the USA chart as Mercury is conjoining natal Mercury now as Saturn closely squares it.) Saturn rules the elderly and authority figures. Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan commented that the economy remains “very sluggish.” Then word got out that Goldman Sachs in a note to clients recommended shorting the S&P500 with a 1285 target. Two independent auditors determined Spain’s banks need an additional €51-62 billion extra capital to weather a serious economic downturn.

And for the grand finale, news leaked that Moody’s would announce downgrades to the credit ratings of 15 of the world’s biggest banks after the market closed. The two key takeaways from Moody’s announcement were:

1. All 5 U.S. banks that got downgraded (Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley) are still rated investment grade.

2. The only reason why these 5 banks are still rated investment grade is due to their implied guarantee that the U.S. government would not let them go under because they are still too big to fail. Dodd-Frank did not go far enough. Once again, U.S. taxpayers remain at risk when the next financial crisis comes. Saturn is all about learning life’s lessons. The combination of Venus retrograde and Saturn in Venus-ruled Libra, together with the Uranus/Pluto square should remind us that rectifying the causes of the financial crisis are far from being resolved. The problem is that there are too many people on Wall Street and in Washington who adhere to the Greenspan doctrine that we should run the economy full speed ahead and clean up after the bubble bursts.

Friday, June 22
The Moon in Leo today until Sunday at 7:43 AM puts people more in the mood to speculate.
Choppy/mixed conditions turn positive; strongest going into the close.

The indices were positive all day, with the Dow peaking shortly before the close. Markets were relieved that the Moody’s downgrades weren’t as bad as the market feared. The ECB expanded the types of collateral it would accept (car loans and certain MBS), while the leaders of the Eurozone proposed a €130 billion growth package to help to offset the adverse impact of austerity measures.

Monday, June 25
The Moon in Virgo can be helpful in analyzing the effects of all the planetary influences converging now. There are multiple pieces of data to digest. Employment, healthcare (SCOTUS ruling on Obamacare expected today), armed services are in focus. And Mars (action; military) is in the final stretch of its long cycle in Virgo.

Grab your calculator:

Uranus in Aries square Pluto in Capricorn: Unexpected shocks and actions can create volatility, reversals, and breakouts/breakthroughs. These reactions could relate to surprise mergers, debt, insurance, derivatives, secrets exposed, corporate and government corruption, and/or nuclear issues.
Capricorn’s planetary ruler Saturn stations direct: Contraction, limits, fear and flight to safety (unless government authorities are doing something the market views as supportive). When Saturn energy is strong, even positive market moves tend to be moderate or seem like conditions are peaking.
Jupiter in Gemini square Neptune in Pisces: Rumors, news, and events that generate large market moves because Jupiter tends to overdo everything. Either markets are in euphoria or concerned about global contagion.

The combination of all of the above raises the potential for natural disasters and geopolitical turmoil that can also weigh on the market.

= Draw your own conclusions today. :-) (Hint: I think there’s a greater bias for the market to be negative rather than positive.)

Mercury enters Leo tonight until August 31 due to Mercury turning retrograde July 14 – August 8. This is the first time there have been any planets in a fixed sign since June 11. Fixed signs can help to bring a bit of stability in an atmosphere dominated by transition and upheaval. Mercury in Leo can instill greater confidence in deciding upon a course of action.(5)

Tuesday, June 26
The Moon enters Libra at 1:15 PM until later Thursday afternoon, putting the focus on financials, partnerships, and diplomatic matters. The First Quarter Moon in Libra at 11:30 PM squares the USA’s natal Jupiter, an indication of big market moves that at least initially favor the market moving higher.

Reverses from yesterday. Positive.

Wednesday, June 27
Venus stations direct at 11:07 AM. Money, banking, relationships, collectibles, works of art, jewelry, and luxury goods are emphasized now. And Love - priceless! This is a good time for all types of socializing and forming alliances.


Thursday, June 28
Choppy/mixed to negative. The Moon shifts into Scorpio at 4:32 PM until Saturday at 6:04 PM.

Friday, June 29
In addition to the energies I described for today in the section on Uranus square Pluto, Mercury in Leo aspecting Jupiter could generate optimism in global markets. A lofty statement issued by the leaders at the EU summit could be the catalyst. Or there could be surprise M&A activity.

Positive, but could weaken or reverse late in session.

Monday, July 2
The first day of the new month and quarter begins with the Moon in Jupiter-ruled Sagittarius which has the potential for creating large moves.

Positive bias.

To be continued with the July 3 Capricorn Full Moon…

(1)The second New Moon in one month is called the “Black Moon,” reflecting that the New Moon is not initially visible.

(2)Mars has been in Virgo since November 10, 2011 due to being retrograde from January 23 to April 13, 2012.

(3)The other exact dates of the Uranus/Pluto square occur on September 19, 2012, May 20 and November 1, 2013, April 21 and December 15, 2014, and March 16, 2015.

(4)The Uranus/Pluto cycle is also described in my Venus, Mars, and Jupiter posts which are linked to in this post.

(5)The other fixed signs are Taurus, Scorpio, and Aquarius.

No comments: