“…more extreme weather conditions with high winds and severe storms that cause power outages and extensive property damage. There is also increased potential for stronger earthquakes in the U.S., particularly in parts of the country not normally considered earthquake prone. Although the combination of the Sun and Mercury to Saturn/Uranus/Pluto can bring extremes in temperature and conditions that swing from severe drought to flooding, the emphasis on the water element at the Summer Solstice can bring an increase in moisture and precipitation. The eastern seaboard especially the Northeast and New England states such as New York City/Long Island, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Vermont appears to be more vulnerable to storms and hurricanes than the southern states.” – from my 2011 Summer Solstice Forecast
Summary Of Last Week’s Influences:
True to its dualistic nature, Mercury completed its retrograde cycle with a 5.8 earthquake in Virginia on Tuesday followed by Hurricane Irene making landfall in two states (North Carolina and New Jersey). The Northeast has experienced record flooding and record precipitation for August in New York City.
I had written that this Mercury retrograde cycle (August 2-26) was about “lifting the veil of illusion.” Hopefully at this point people have awakened to the realization that earthquakes can occur almost anywhere in the U.S. and hurricanes are not confined to Florida and the southern states which are better equipped to handle it. This is why it’s important to keep a supply of basic essentials on hand at all times. The East Coast could face more earthquakes and storms in September, and there is always the possibility that the Sun could knock out power and satellite communications.
Now it will be interesting to see if House Majority Leader Eric Cantor who said earlier this year that people in the Midwest who suffered through numerous tornadoes and flooding should not receive any federal aid, grabs government assistance for Virginia. We’ll see if New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is willing to walk the talk by not taking federal aid since the Garden State under his leadership is supposed to be completely self-sufficient. Perhaps these two events will help people to understand how everything is interconnected and there is a reason why this country is called the United States of America.
Neither the earthquake or an impending hurricane stopped the stock market from running up its biggest weekly gain in two months with all 10 S&P sectors in the green. Thursday was the only exception amongst the enthusiasm as the Moon and Mars in Cancer squared Saturn in Libra. Fears of sovereign debt concerns prompted investors to seek shelter in U.S. Treasuries.
As the Sun and Venus opposed Neptune at the beginning of last week before both planets entered Mercury-ruled Virgo, the markets reversed their downward slide. “Market Bets on Fed Miracle”
aptly describes the market’s eternal hope the Fed is always ready to revive it when it starts to sink.
After being up and then down as much as 229 points, the major indices sharply reversed Friday after fully digesting Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech on “The Near-and Longer-Term Prospects for the U.S. Economy.”
The markets welcomed Bernanke’s “read my lips” type of implication which intended to remove any doubts that the time frame of zero interest rates is “at least through mid-2013.”(1) What got the market really psyched is that the Fed Chairman has extended the next FOMC meeting from 1 to 2 days (September 20-21 with the FOMC statement scheduled for release on the 21st at 2:15 PM). The market interprets the change to imply that Bernanke intends to strong arm the other FOMC members to agree to some form of monetary stimulus.
What the market chose to ignore was Bernanke’s message as the USA experiences its Saturn return. He reinforced S&P’s contention that the hostile political environment during the debt ceiling debate hampered the economy. Bernanke clearly warned that if the 2012 fiscal year budget and appropriations and the Super Committee’s deliberations are not civil, the economy would be unable to recover. There is no uncertainty out there that business views as greater than the political uncertainty in the Congressional budget and appropriations processes. Rulemaking in healthcare reform and FINREG pale in comparison to funding uncertainties for any business that engages in commerce with the federal government.
Summary Of This Week’s Influences:
With Mercury turning direct and slowly moving forward again under the auspices of the New Moon in Mercury-ruled Virgo which harmonizes with Jupiter and Pluto as Jupiter prepares to turn retrograde Tuesday. (See my post on the Virgo New Moon cycle for additional info.)
The New Moon’s energies occurring the week before the Virgo Labor Day holiday weekend as institutional investors engage in end of month window dressing and new month buying can exaggerate the market’s moves which is further emphasized by Jupiter’s energies being more pronounced now as it turns retrograde until December 25.
The Moon in Virgo until Tuesday afternoon looks to evaluate the health of the economy. Monday’s report on personal income and spending could show that consumers are saving more than projected and doing less consumer discretionary spending due to the cost of staple goods that Chairman Bernanke claims is “transitory.”
Tuesday’s report on August consumer confidence could be steady to stronger with Venus in Virgo harmonizing with Jupiter in Taurus. The Minutes of the August 9 FOMC meeting Tuesday afternoon could provide added insight into how much work Bernanke would have to do to get consensus for additional monetary stimulus.
The Moon enters Venus-ruled Libra at 2:25 PM until Thursday afternoon, further reinforces the energies of Venus harmonizing with Jupiter in Venus-ruled Taurus. This is a “double Venus” with Jupiter in Taurus and the Moon moving into Libra in afternoon
Revised second quarter productivity Thursday and the August employment report could show an increase in labor costs.
Monday, August 29, 2011
Positive and likely strongest in the morning before weakening into the afternoon. This could take the indices into negative territory before gaining/reversing into the close.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Positive and strongest in the morning before weakening in the afternoon.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Negative. News related to sovereign debt and/or economic reports could exert downward pressure on the market.
Thursday, September 1, 2011
Positive bias.
Friday, September 2, 2011
Choppy/mixed to positive.
(1) “Read my lips; no new taxes” is a phrase that President Bush Sr. probably regrets. Bernanke’s “at least until mid-2013” remark reminded me of it and leads me to think that he could come to regret what he said as well.
Virgo New Moon Cycle: August 28 – September 26, 2011
Published by WallStreetWeather.net
The word month is derived from the Moon. The new month actually begins when the Sun and Moon conjoin at the New Moon, a time of new beginnings. This month’s New Moon occurs on August 28, 2011 at 11:04 PM EDT in Virgo. Schedules/daily routines, health, and employment, are in focus during the next month as Virgo rules the labor force, the armed services and healthcare. The Virgo New Moon is the time to analyze all the details to determine what’s essential in order to operate more effectively and efficiently.
Virgo is portrayed as a virgin holding a shaft of wheat, representing the fruits of one’s labor. Just as Virgo is a dualistic sign, there are two layers to this symbolism. Billionaire Sir Richard Branson made his fortune launching businesses in industries that he had no prior experience in, naming every endeavor “Virgin.” (1) The New Moon is the “virgin” time of the month to start something completely new. Sometimes Virgo energy can get so hung up achieving nothing short of perfection that nothing happens! The true archetype of Virgo is to be of service by living life doing your absolute best.
The Virgo archetype symbolizes wholeness and the purity contained within. The Virgo New Moon is about having pride and emotional satisfaction in your work and in taking care of your body. The body is a temple and is nourished by food that is grown from the Earth, not concocted in a chemistry lab. Like Gemini, Virgo is also ruled by Mercury and is a mutable (flexible) sign. The human body was designed to be in motion, not sitting for hours on end.
Virgo is part of the earth element which is concerned with practical matters and core economic issues. The New Moon conjoining Venus in Virgo enhances the desire to improve physical appearance, particularly lifestyle changes that improve health and physical wellbeing. These energies also represent organizing/sprucing up your work environment to enhance creativity and productivity. Having something “earthy” and attractive such as a plant, fresh flowers, a rock or nature scene, i.e. anything that “grounds” you in your work environment can be beneficial.
The other signs that comprise the earth element are also strong now as the New Moon and Venus in Virgo harmonize with Jupiter in Venus-ruled Taurus and Pluto in Capricorn. These are confident energies that can enhance finances, employment, health, and positively transform one’s professional reputation – IF the effort is made as these influences can easily lull one into complacency and avoidance. With this “grand earth trine” and half of the planets in earth signs at the New Moon, the potential for increased earthquake activity throughout the world is enhanced.
Virgo is the bookkeeper and the analyst that calculates if the numbers add up and the data computes to determine true value. Just in time for the New Moon, Mercury is slowly starting to move forward again to process what we learned during August 2-26 when Mercury was retrograde.
These energies combined with the fact that Mercury is in Leo the sign of the Sun, signifies that leaders of all stripes are trying to project a high level of confidence in the global economy and financial system to keep the stock market propped up to enhance the wealth effect. News/talk of M&A activity and optimism for additional monetary stimulus is helping to sustain the market and has thus far been the only impetus for companies to spend money. But since Mercury is in a challenging relationship to Uranus and Pluto, the potential for sudden and sharp reversals related to sovereign debt and U.S. political uncertainties is always lurking under the surface. Mercury will complete its opposition to Neptune on September 8 which began on July 29 and repeated on August 8. Mercury re-enters its home sign Virgo September 9, ending up where it turned retrograde August 2. Now the information is clearer to choose which way to go.
Jupiter in Taurus describes the enormous amount of cash sitting on corporate balance sheets and companies reluctance to invest that cash to expand their business. The stock market is being kept propped up for now as investors are reluctant to take profits on stocks that are either driven by momentum or pay a decent dividend. Jupiter’s energies are extra strong August 28 – September 1 as it appears to turn retrograde from Earth’s vantage point until December 25.
Jupiter’s prominence during the New Moon cycle and this week in particular indicates that market moves can be exaggerated by how confident investors feel now about the global banking system. Optimism that Greece and the other countries that comprise the PIIGS can repay their debt is overinflated as the debt is too massive (Pluto). Ultimately foreign and U.S. banks will have to write down the debt, but European and U.S. financial regulators would like to delay that day as long as possible so banks are not faced with payouts on credit default swaps. When the too big to fail U.S. banks proclaim their exposure to Europe is minimal because it is hedged, none of the banking analysts ever ask the banks what their gross exposure is. You can hedge all you want, but let’s not forget that the 2008 financial crisis taught us that your bets are only as good as your counterparty being able to fulfill their end of the contract. And as we know, counterparty risk has a chain reaction effect of bringing down the entire system. This is why the AIG bailout was paramount to preventing a systemic financial collapse.
With Saturn in Libra the sign representing counterparties to a transaction until October 2012, it is unlikely that financial regulators will be able to keep this situation contained (Saturn) as they increase their demand for banks to raise more capital (Jupiter in Taurus). As I have previously written, Jupiter (expansion) and Saturn (contraction) in signs ruled by Venus as Venus appears in the evening sky September 23 to May 30, 2012 makes it unlikely that major indices can exceed their multiyear closing highs made on April 29.
Virgo and Saturn represent accountability and responsibility. The New Moon occurs on the day the USA experiences its eighth Saturn return as a nation, marking the start of a new cycle between now and October 5, 2040. The U.S. has some very critical structural decisions to make now that can no longer be delayed. But ultimately success or failure is predicated on those in the highest positions of authority taking the lead by cultivating civility.
USA Hotspots prominently featured due to natural or manmade influences during the New Moon cycle include New York City, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, TEXAS. World Hotspots: MEXICO, Italy, Libya, SYRIA, western Saudi Arabia. Africa: Morocco, Mauritania, Senegal, Guinea, Ivory Coast; Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Madagascar. Northeastern Afghanistan at the border with Pakistan (Islamabad), India (Ahmadabad), east coast of N/S Korea, southern Japan, central and eastern Australia, New Zealand.
The Moon growing from New to Full is the time to develop and implement new ideas and projects. The first half of the Moon’s cycle can coincide with rising share prices, and the Virgo New Moon cycle looks to be one of those months. The period between the September 12 Full Moon and the next New Moon is the time to complete projects and eliminate what is no longer efficient or effective. This coincides with a declining market going into the Libra New Moon on September 27.
The September 4 First Quarter Moon (1:40 PM EDT) in Sagittarius brings global issues home. Nuclear issues could become prominent and covert government actions could see the light of day with Pluto stationary as it turns direct September 16 after being retrograde since April 9. Prominent global hotspots now include Brazil, Italy, Greece, Libya, Egypt, Israel, Koreas, CHINA (Beijing). The situation in Greece could reach crisis level by the Libra New Moon which conjoins Greece’s natal Moon/Pluto. This comes at a time when Germany could also be rocked by unexpected internal events.
Since I will be writing more frequently, I will go into more detail about the Quarter Moons and Full Moon in separate posts, as well as a post on the September 23 Autumnal Equinox. The Weekly Forecast features a more detailed look at current and upcoming influences.
Related Post: 2011 Summer Solstice Forecast
(1) Born July 18, 1950 at 7:00 AM in Blackheath, England, Branson’s Sun in Cancer is ruled by the Moon in Virgo. Branson feels there isn’t anything he can’t do. And the more he feels people doubt his ability to succeed in an endeavor, the more determined he is to do it! (This is reflected by his natal Moon in Virgo opposite optimistic and expansive Jupiter in visionary Pisces.)
The word month is derived from the Moon. The new month actually begins when the Sun and Moon conjoin at the New Moon, a time of new beginnings. This month’s New Moon occurs on August 28, 2011 at 11:04 PM EDT in Virgo. Schedules/daily routines, health, and employment, are in focus during the next month as Virgo rules the labor force, the armed services and healthcare. The Virgo New Moon is the time to analyze all the details to determine what’s essential in order to operate more effectively and efficiently.
Virgo is portrayed as a virgin holding a shaft of wheat, representing the fruits of one’s labor. Just as Virgo is a dualistic sign, there are two layers to this symbolism. Billionaire Sir Richard Branson made his fortune launching businesses in industries that he had no prior experience in, naming every endeavor “Virgin.” (1) The New Moon is the “virgin” time of the month to start something completely new. Sometimes Virgo energy can get so hung up achieving nothing short of perfection that nothing happens! The true archetype of Virgo is to be of service by living life doing your absolute best.
The Virgo archetype symbolizes wholeness and the purity contained within. The Virgo New Moon is about having pride and emotional satisfaction in your work and in taking care of your body. The body is a temple and is nourished by food that is grown from the Earth, not concocted in a chemistry lab. Like Gemini, Virgo is also ruled by Mercury and is a mutable (flexible) sign. The human body was designed to be in motion, not sitting for hours on end.
Virgo is part of the earth element which is concerned with practical matters and core economic issues. The New Moon conjoining Venus in Virgo enhances the desire to improve physical appearance, particularly lifestyle changes that improve health and physical wellbeing. These energies also represent organizing/sprucing up your work environment to enhance creativity and productivity. Having something “earthy” and attractive such as a plant, fresh flowers, a rock or nature scene, i.e. anything that “grounds” you in your work environment can be beneficial.
The other signs that comprise the earth element are also strong now as the New Moon and Venus in Virgo harmonize with Jupiter in Venus-ruled Taurus and Pluto in Capricorn. These are confident energies that can enhance finances, employment, health, and positively transform one’s professional reputation – IF the effort is made as these influences can easily lull one into complacency and avoidance. With this “grand earth trine” and half of the planets in earth signs at the New Moon, the potential for increased earthquake activity throughout the world is enhanced.
Virgo is the bookkeeper and the analyst that calculates if the numbers add up and the data computes to determine true value. Just in time for the New Moon, Mercury is slowly starting to move forward again to process what we learned during August 2-26 when Mercury was retrograde.
These energies combined with the fact that Mercury is in Leo the sign of the Sun, signifies that leaders of all stripes are trying to project a high level of confidence in the global economy and financial system to keep the stock market propped up to enhance the wealth effect. News/talk of M&A activity and optimism for additional monetary stimulus is helping to sustain the market and has thus far been the only impetus for companies to spend money. But since Mercury is in a challenging relationship to Uranus and Pluto, the potential for sudden and sharp reversals related to sovereign debt and U.S. political uncertainties is always lurking under the surface. Mercury will complete its opposition to Neptune on September 8 which began on July 29 and repeated on August 8. Mercury re-enters its home sign Virgo September 9, ending up where it turned retrograde August 2. Now the information is clearer to choose which way to go.
Jupiter in Taurus describes the enormous amount of cash sitting on corporate balance sheets and companies reluctance to invest that cash to expand their business. The stock market is being kept propped up for now as investors are reluctant to take profits on stocks that are either driven by momentum or pay a decent dividend. Jupiter’s energies are extra strong August 28 – September 1 as it appears to turn retrograde from Earth’s vantage point until December 25.
Jupiter’s prominence during the New Moon cycle and this week in particular indicates that market moves can be exaggerated by how confident investors feel now about the global banking system. Optimism that Greece and the other countries that comprise the PIIGS can repay their debt is overinflated as the debt is too massive (Pluto). Ultimately foreign and U.S. banks will have to write down the debt, but European and U.S. financial regulators would like to delay that day as long as possible so banks are not faced with payouts on credit default swaps. When the too big to fail U.S. banks proclaim their exposure to Europe is minimal because it is hedged, none of the banking analysts ever ask the banks what their gross exposure is. You can hedge all you want, but let’s not forget that the 2008 financial crisis taught us that your bets are only as good as your counterparty being able to fulfill their end of the contract. And as we know, counterparty risk has a chain reaction effect of bringing down the entire system. This is why the AIG bailout was paramount to preventing a systemic financial collapse.
With Saturn in Libra the sign representing counterparties to a transaction until October 2012, it is unlikely that financial regulators will be able to keep this situation contained (Saturn) as they increase their demand for banks to raise more capital (Jupiter in Taurus). As I have previously written, Jupiter (expansion) and Saturn (contraction) in signs ruled by Venus as Venus appears in the evening sky September 23 to May 30, 2012 makes it unlikely that major indices can exceed their multiyear closing highs made on April 29.
Virgo and Saturn represent accountability and responsibility. The New Moon occurs on the day the USA experiences its eighth Saturn return as a nation, marking the start of a new cycle between now and October 5, 2040. The U.S. has some very critical structural decisions to make now that can no longer be delayed. But ultimately success or failure is predicated on those in the highest positions of authority taking the lead by cultivating civility.
USA Hotspots prominently featured due to natural or manmade influences during the New Moon cycle include New York City, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, TEXAS. World Hotspots: MEXICO, Italy, Libya, SYRIA, western Saudi Arabia. Africa: Morocco, Mauritania, Senegal, Guinea, Ivory Coast; Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Madagascar. Northeastern Afghanistan at the border with Pakistan (Islamabad), India (Ahmadabad), east coast of N/S Korea, southern Japan, central and eastern Australia, New Zealand.
The Moon growing from New to Full is the time to develop and implement new ideas and projects. The first half of the Moon’s cycle can coincide with rising share prices, and the Virgo New Moon cycle looks to be one of those months. The period between the September 12 Full Moon and the next New Moon is the time to complete projects and eliminate what is no longer efficient or effective. This coincides with a declining market going into the Libra New Moon on September 27.
The September 4 First Quarter Moon (1:40 PM EDT) in Sagittarius brings global issues home. Nuclear issues could become prominent and covert government actions could see the light of day with Pluto stationary as it turns direct September 16 after being retrograde since April 9. Prominent global hotspots now include Brazil, Italy, Greece, Libya, Egypt, Israel, Koreas, CHINA (Beijing). The situation in Greece could reach crisis level by the Libra New Moon which conjoins Greece’s natal Moon/Pluto. This comes at a time when Germany could also be rocked by unexpected internal events.
Since I will be writing more frequently, I will go into more detail about the Quarter Moons and Full Moon in separate posts, as well as a post on the September 23 Autumnal Equinox. The Weekly Forecast features a more detailed look at current and upcoming influences.
Related Post: 2011 Summer Solstice Forecast
(1) Born July 18, 1950 at 7:00 AM in Blackheath, England, Branson’s Sun in Cancer is ruled by the Moon in Virgo. Branson feels there isn’t anything he can’t do. And the more he feels people doubt his ability to succeed in an endeavor, the more determined he is to do it! (This is reflected by his natal Moon in Virgo opposite optimistic and expansive Jupiter in visionary Pisces.)
WallStreetWeather.net Forecast For Week Of August 21, 2011: “Economic Growth Under Pressure Edition”
Summary Of Last Week’s Influences:
Far from being a less volatile week, last week’s market actions propelled the major indices to experience their biggest declines over a four week period since their “Jupiter cycle” lows of early March 2009. In the last four weeks, the DJIA has erased 1,863.51 points, while the S&P has declined 17.6% from its multiyear closing high of 1,363.61 on April 29, 2011.
Since Mercury turned retrograde August 2, current circumstances tend to remind us of incidences and people from the past. As Mercury reached the midpoint of its retrograde cycle last week, several correlations have been made linking the market’s current behavior to events from the most tumultuous times of the financial crisis. Concerns that European banks operating in the U.S. lack sufficient capital to adequately conduct their daily operations here has created fears of contagion and talk of a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis. Thursday’s Wall Street Journal story on the subject resulted in comparisons to the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
Before continuing any further, I think it’s important to put the market’s performance in its proper perspective. After closing at a 12 year low of 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009, the Dow gained 6,263.49 points or 96% to its 12,810.54 closing high on April 29. The S&P gained an astounding 102%/688.03 points, from 676.53 to its April 29 close at 1,364.56. Even investors who entered the market halfway through this rocket ride rally who bought shares in the ETFs of the DJIA (DIA) or the S&P500 (SPY) would have had gains nothing short of spectacular over such a short period of time (in addition to collecting a decent dividend).
At 12,810.54 and 1,364.56 respectively, the Dow and S&P had regained close to 90% of their all-time record highs (14,164.53/1,565.15) of October 9, 2007.(1) But as this Mercury retrograde cycle “lifts the veil of illusion” (click Mercury retrograde link above), the market is waking up to the realization that trying to justify current share prices based on current interest rates is like attempting to compare apples to oranges.
The 2007 record high was based on the foundation of a robust economy (even though hairline cracks were beginning to show through a supposedly solid foundation). This year’s market high is based on the foundation of artificially low interest rates and a poor economy. Zero interest rates combined with fiscal belt tightening as the economy is weakening does not bode well for financial markets.
The only catalyst for the market now is the dream of a brighter future. Although the Fed’s ultra loose policy accommodation is helping to maintain a “floor” for the market by pushing investors into stocks and other risky assets, the Fed is simultaneously destroying the dream of a brighter future. By keeping interest rates at zero since December 2008 and announcing August 9 it is “likely” rates could remain at their current level until at least mid-2013, monetary policy is actually destroying the dream of a brighter future.
The Fed is sending a negative message that economic conditions haven’t improved one iota since the depths of the financial crisis and are not about to anytime soon. Instead of the Fed’s “pledge” providing what the Committee believes to be economic comfort, is having the exact opposite effect as businesses and consumers will only further delay hiring and making major purchases if they believe these rock bottom rates will be around for an “extended extended period.” Rather than talking about needing a further rescue by the Fed, the market needs to be rescued from the Fed! If the economy is not as bad as it was during the darkest days of the financial crisis, the improvement should be reflected by a gradual increase in interest rates and reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet as securities mature.
On the fiscal side, the debt ceiling debacle has damaged the economy by eroding confidence.
There is so much resentment toward Standard & Poor’s for downgrading the USA’s long-term credit rating. Yet just because the messenger was one of the cast of characters contributing to the financial crisis does not justify ignoring the message. It just shows that the USA is resisting Saturn’s lessons which become more difficult the longer they are ignored. (See “Debt Deal and Debt Downgrade Highlights the USA’s Fiscal Imbalances at its Saturn Return” for more information.) More messengers have emerged with warnings. Moody’s Analytics (a Moody’s subsidiary), downgraded its near-term growth outlook for the U.S. which it primarily attributed to the debt ceiling debacle. Chief Economist Mark Zandi said lawmakers must “get it together” to avoid recession. Fitch is waiting in the wings to lower the USA’s outlook from stable to negative if the new debt deal “super committee” fails to reach agreement on how they will cut $1.5 trillion from the deficit.
The USA was born with Saturn in Libra. As the nation undergoes its eighth Saturn return now (exact August 28), the government (Saturn) must cooperate (Libra) to put the nation’s fiscal house in order in a balanced way to benefit the good of the nation as a whole. The nation is waking up to the realization of the limits of fiscal and monetary policy. Saturn rules time and therefore history; past economic recoveries have depended on construction together with the lifting of asset prices to drag us out of the dumps. Having run out of every piece of ammunition to boost the economy following the burst of the Nasdaq bubble and the 9/11terrorist attacks, the Fed resorted to the nuclear option, using the power of collateral through housing to expand credit to dangerous levels.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke views Japan’s lost decade as the result of policies that were not fast and aggressive enough. As I have described many times, with his Sun in Jupiter-ruled Sagittarius opposing Jupiter in Mercury-ruled Gemini, together with Mercury and Venus in Sagittarius, Chairman Bernanke views the danger of under reacting to be greater than Jupiter's overreacting to the point of excess. Bernanke is considered to be a scholar of the Great Depression, and it appears the U.S. is paralleling the 1930s rather than Japan in the 1990s. He believes the Fed tightened too soon then; now economic conditions could retrench as the Fed keeps policy too low for too long.
The stock market collapse in October 1929 was followed by a rapid reversal on the hope the country could enter into a period of austerity while the economy recovered. By July 1932, the economy and the stock market had relapsed. Now the market could be repeating the same timeline. Uranus is in Aries for the first time since the 1930s, bringing a return to the extreme heat and drought. Pluto in Cancer only accentuated the geophysical and economic extreme from boom to bust. Pluto has been in Cancer’s opposite sign Capricorn since 2008 and now is the first time since the 1930s that Uranus and Pluto are making a challenging alignment to each other which will be exact during 2012-2015.
What makes this period worse than the 1930s is that we cannot count on construction bailing us out. The nation’s debt level (Pluto) wasn’t what it is now, and none of this was happening as the nation undergoes a Saturn return. Saturn in its home sign Capricorn was squaring Uranus in Aries and opposing Pluto in Cancer during the early 1930s. The nation literally dug itself out of the depths of the economic crisis through structural (Saturn) endeavors sponsored by the government (Saturn/Capricorn). New endeavors (Uranus in Aries) such as Social Security, FDIC insurance on bank deposits, and investor protections were enacted to create a basic social safety net for the general public (Pluto in nurturing Cancer).
While monetary policy has reached its limits, the lesson learned from the 1930s is that public works projects put people back to work while improving the nation’s infrastructure which benefitted the economy and the entire nation.
The return of “merger Monday” brought an overreaction to the upside on the news that Google (GOOG) will buy Motorola Mobility (MMI) for $12.5 billion. I interpret the excitement over acquiring patents and “patent wars” as a signal that innovation is slowing and the market is saturated. Increased M&A activity is a sign that companies must acquire as they’re having trouble growing fast enough organically. Zero interest rates fuels M&A activity which in turn reduces innovation while increasing unemployment. To further elaborate on footnote (1), telecom comprised part of the 1990s tech bubble which resulted from the breakup of the MaBell during the 1980s. Now telecom’s consolidation of power is working against economic growth!
The market had already reversed back to negative Tuesday by the time the Sun in Leo exactly conjoined Mercury and Venus as the two planets conjoined each other. Not only did evidence point to growth in the Eurozone slowing down, but Germany’s GDP at 0.1% in the second quarter came in lower than the Eurozone overall. No country is exempt from economic contraction when Saturn impacts a country’s natal Sun (the heart and life force). As Saturn recently conjoined Germany’s (and China’s) natal Suns in Libra and impact natal Uranus (shocks/surprises; upheavals), Uranus and Pluto are making challenging alignments to other key planets in their charts. And since China and Germany are not exempt from economic contraction, that puts additional pressure on the U.S. economy.
At the same time growth is slowing, higher costs are exerting additional pressures on growth. U.S. producer prices in July were up 7.6% year/year. At 2.5%, Core PPI was the highest since June 2009. Mars in Cancer aspecting Jupiter in Taurus at the time PPI and CPI for July was released last week reflected an increase in the cost of goods and services. Consumer prices increased 0.5% or 3.6% year/year. Core CPI is running at 1.8% year over year near the upper end of the Fed’s target range. Indeed, core CPI is double what it was when Bernanke gave his speech in Jackson Hole last August. Mars in Cancer reflects the cost of food and shelter remains elevated and is not “transitory.” Mortgage rates are at record lows, yet the cost to maintain a home or to rent continues to rise.
Mars in Cancer conjoined the degree of the July 1 Solar Eclipse Tuesday, sparking a rapid selloff after the meeting between President Sarkozy and PM Merkel failed to meet the market’s hopes for a “big bang.” The market had hoped the two leaders would announce a plan to create Eurobonds, but with Mercury retrograde, they reintroduced a financial transaction tax which was rejected in 2010.
The Sun conjoining Mercury and Venus in Leo describes what leaders (Sun/Leo) say (Mercury) about fiscal and monetary matters (Venus). Mercury conjoining Venus tends to indicate that communications are pleasant and upbeat. Like the market, I had high hopes these energies could tone down the discord. At its highest potential these energies indicate that people – especially leaders – need to communicate with words that can heal rather than hurt.
The Sun/Mercury/Venus influence reflects comments made about or by central bankers. But there was nothing pleasant about Texas Governor and Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry’s remarks about Chairman Bernanke:
“If this guy prints more money between now and the election, I don’t know what y’all would do to him in Iowa, but we would treat him pretty ugly down in Texas. I mean printing more money to play politics at this particular time in American history is almost treacherous er treasonous in my opinion.”
Long time readers of this blog know how much I intensly disagree with monetary policy and the reappointment of Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman. But to say I found it deeply disturbing that the leader of a state thought nothing of making a veiled threat against the Fed Chairman would be an understatement. And the fact that Gov. Perry is not publicly apologizing that his “treasonous” remarks were a mistake was even more disturbing. Disagreements over policy and ideology must be expressed in a respectful manner and not as a personal attack/threat. Saturn in Libra can present difficulties in relating to one another, but it also reflects that those in positions of authority must adhere to a higher standard of decorum and civility.
And if Perry’s remarks about Chairman Bernanke were not enough to digest, Dallas FRB president Richard Fisher who was one of three dissenters at the August 9 FOMC meeting clearly crossed the boundaries (Saturn again!) in an interview with CNBC’s Larry Kudlow Thursday. Although the Fed is supposed to be independent, they are political. But Fisher’s remarks that “so much regulatory uncertainty” is one of the factors holding the economy back is the first time I have publicly heard a member of the Fed take a partisan political stance. Rules and regulations (Saturn) have existed for as long as governments have existed, yet somehow companies have always found ways to make a profit.
Although the indices were briefly positive on Friday, the indices closed the week at the session’s lows.
Summary Of This Week’s Influences:
Mars in Cancer squaring Saturn in Libra this week as the USA experiences its Saturn return is likely to exert more selling pressure on the market and accelerate fears that growth is slowing down.
The Last Quarter Moon in Venus-ruled Taurus occurred Sunday at 5:54 PM EDT shortly before Venus completed its sojourn in Leo and moved into Virgo until September 14. Venus switching signs can correspond to currency reversals, especially with Venus’ ruler Mercury being retrograde. Venus in Virgo together with the Sun entering Virgo Tuesday morning and next Sunday’s Virgo New Moon, can be beneficial for people looking for employment and can indicate wage increases. The Sun and Venus in Virgo is likely to increase scrutiny of asset price valuations as this sign loves to crunch the numbers.
Venus in Leo opposed Neptune in Aquarius Sunday and on Monday the Sun will oppose Neptune as the planet makes its closest approach to Earth this year. Full Moons mark a culmination point, and this is the “Full Moon” phase of the Sun/Neptune cycle that began on February 17 when the planets were conjoined in revolutionary and freedom loving Aquarius. Reflecting those energies, a “day of rage” was declared by protesters in Libya that day following the arrest of a human rights activist involved in freeing political prisoners (Neptune).
After reaching new highs at the Full Moon on February 18, the market turned bearish February 22 and Neptune-ruled oil spiked after protests erupted throughout Libya after Col. Gadhafi’s mercenaries fired on demonstrators in Tripoli. In a post written in late January I noted that “tensions could be rising in Libya” and that Gadhafi would be defeated during the three month timeframe the Summer Solstice forecast is in effect.
Mercury turned retrograde squaring Gadhafi’s Uranus/Saturn conjunction in Gemini, reversing the inroads he had made in keeping rebel forces out of Tripoli. As Mars in Cancer conjoins his progressed Jupiter as Saturn in Libra squares it this week, Gadhafi could have one brief final hurrah of freedom before his authority is curtailed. The Last Quarter Moon in Taurus rising over Tripoli reflects the public taking charge from a dictator who has stubbornly refused to accede to their wishes. Saturn conjoining Libra’s progressed Sun in October reflects the fall of the dictator who has ruled Libya since 1969.
The influence of the Sun and Venus opposing Neptune reinforces the energies of Mercury’s oppositions to Neptune (July 29 and August 8) which color the entire Mercury retrograde cycle. Rumors, false information, contagion concerns – these are the types of things that the market is reacting to now. The Moon in Mercury-ruled Gemini Monday and Tuesday only accentuates the energies of Mercury retrograde. Although I think the market will be to the downside Monday, any piece of news has the potential to cause market fluctuations in either direction amongst an atmosphere of illusion, delusion, and confusion.
The Moon enters its home sign Cancer Wednesday until midday Friday, conjoining Mars and squaring Saturn as Mars squares Saturn. This can bring selling pressure along with public anger over the cost of consumer staples and continuing contraction in home values. It also reflects the frustration banks are experiencing in cutting a deal with the government to settle claims of foreclosure fraud.
Venus in Virgo harmonizing with Pluto in Capricorn Thursday evening could bring M&A news. This together with the anticipation that the Treasury market will be a beneficiary when Fed Chairman Bernanke gives his speech at the Fed’s symposium in Jackson Hole Friday at 10:00 AM (ET), could find the market feeling more upbeat early Friday. However, the Moon in a stressful alignment to Neptune later Friday morning indicates the market might need to adjust its expectations concerning what the Fed can do at this point to make a difference beyond ensuring the financial system has adequate liquidity and is structurally sound. Here are projections of what the Golden One thinks Bernanke will say in his speech which if correct would confirm what I wrote in the Mercury retrograde post that Bernanke would not announce a QE3. As mentioned in my Fed post last week, reviving “Operation Twist” is the only potential possibility because as Goldman writes, the Fed is not going to embark on anything “unconventional.” I’ve previously written that Uranus in Aries squaring the Fed’s natal Sun and Pluto this year is one factor which indicates a reversal of policy is beginning despite what the FOMC statement said.
The Moon enters Leo at 12:09 PM Friday which could improve sentiment. Mercury turns direct at 6:03 PM EDT, just in time for the weekend and Sunday evening’s New Moon in Virgo. Any market gains made between the end of August and early September are likely to be temporary as a lot more market turbulence looks to be in store for the Autumnal Equinox and the September 27 Libra New Moon.
Monday, August 22, 2011
Negative (but potential setup for fluctuating conditions in either direction).
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Negative.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Choppy/mixed conditions deteriorate to negative.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Negative; improves as the day progresses.
Friday, August 26, 2011
Positive conditions could reverse in the late morning before starting to improve again as the afternoon progresses.
(1) After closing at 2,873.65 on April 29, 2011, the Nasdaq Composite had regained 57% of its March 10, 2000 record high of 5,048.62. Uranus is the planetary ruler of technology; Saturn conjoining the Nasdaq’s natal Uranus in Libra has recently been exerting downward pressure on the tech-heavy index. Mercury turning retrograde in Virgo squaring the Nasdaq’s natal Jupiter and Neptune in Sagittarius indicates rethinking a sector that has experienced such outsized gains. Jupiter in Taurus demands tangible evidence that growth is real and not just hype. Companies that fail to deliver either dividends or tangible growth will have lower valuations in the current economic environment.
Far from being a less volatile week, last week’s market actions propelled the major indices to experience their biggest declines over a four week period since their “Jupiter cycle” lows of early March 2009. In the last four weeks, the DJIA has erased 1,863.51 points, while the S&P has declined 17.6% from its multiyear closing high of 1,363.61 on April 29, 2011.
Since Mercury turned retrograde August 2, current circumstances tend to remind us of incidences and people from the past. As Mercury reached the midpoint of its retrograde cycle last week, several correlations have been made linking the market’s current behavior to events from the most tumultuous times of the financial crisis. Concerns that European banks operating in the U.S. lack sufficient capital to adequately conduct their daily operations here has created fears of contagion and talk of a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis. Thursday’s Wall Street Journal story on the subject resulted in comparisons to the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
Before continuing any further, I think it’s important to put the market’s performance in its proper perspective. After closing at a 12 year low of 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009, the Dow gained 6,263.49 points or 96% to its 12,810.54 closing high on April 29. The S&P gained an astounding 102%/688.03 points, from 676.53 to its April 29 close at 1,364.56. Even investors who entered the market halfway through this rocket ride rally who bought shares in the ETFs of the DJIA (DIA) or the S&P500 (SPY) would have had gains nothing short of spectacular over such a short period of time (in addition to collecting a decent dividend).
At 12,810.54 and 1,364.56 respectively, the Dow and S&P had regained close to 90% of their all-time record highs (14,164.53/1,565.15) of October 9, 2007.(1) But as this Mercury retrograde cycle “lifts the veil of illusion” (click Mercury retrograde link above), the market is waking up to the realization that trying to justify current share prices based on current interest rates is like attempting to compare apples to oranges.
The 2007 record high was based on the foundation of a robust economy (even though hairline cracks were beginning to show through a supposedly solid foundation). This year’s market high is based on the foundation of artificially low interest rates and a poor economy. Zero interest rates combined with fiscal belt tightening as the economy is weakening does not bode well for financial markets.
The only catalyst for the market now is the dream of a brighter future. Although the Fed’s ultra loose policy accommodation is helping to maintain a “floor” for the market by pushing investors into stocks and other risky assets, the Fed is simultaneously destroying the dream of a brighter future. By keeping interest rates at zero since December 2008 and announcing August 9 it is “likely” rates could remain at their current level until at least mid-2013, monetary policy is actually destroying the dream of a brighter future.
The Fed is sending a negative message that economic conditions haven’t improved one iota since the depths of the financial crisis and are not about to anytime soon. Instead of the Fed’s “pledge” providing what the Committee believes to be economic comfort, is having the exact opposite effect as businesses and consumers will only further delay hiring and making major purchases if they believe these rock bottom rates will be around for an “extended extended period.” Rather than talking about needing a further rescue by the Fed, the market needs to be rescued from the Fed! If the economy is not as bad as it was during the darkest days of the financial crisis, the improvement should be reflected by a gradual increase in interest rates and reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet as securities mature.
On the fiscal side, the debt ceiling debacle has damaged the economy by eroding confidence.
There is so much resentment toward Standard & Poor’s for downgrading the USA’s long-term credit rating. Yet just because the messenger was one of the cast of characters contributing to the financial crisis does not justify ignoring the message. It just shows that the USA is resisting Saturn’s lessons which become more difficult the longer they are ignored. (See “Debt Deal and Debt Downgrade Highlights the USA’s Fiscal Imbalances at its Saturn Return” for more information.) More messengers have emerged with warnings. Moody’s Analytics (a Moody’s subsidiary), downgraded its near-term growth outlook for the U.S. which it primarily attributed to the debt ceiling debacle. Chief Economist Mark Zandi said lawmakers must “get it together” to avoid recession. Fitch is waiting in the wings to lower the USA’s outlook from stable to negative if the new debt deal “super committee” fails to reach agreement on how they will cut $1.5 trillion from the deficit.
The USA was born with Saturn in Libra. As the nation undergoes its eighth Saturn return now (exact August 28), the government (Saturn) must cooperate (Libra) to put the nation’s fiscal house in order in a balanced way to benefit the good of the nation as a whole. The nation is waking up to the realization of the limits of fiscal and monetary policy. Saturn rules time and therefore history; past economic recoveries have depended on construction together with the lifting of asset prices to drag us out of the dumps. Having run out of every piece of ammunition to boost the economy following the burst of the Nasdaq bubble and the 9/11terrorist attacks, the Fed resorted to the nuclear option, using the power of collateral through housing to expand credit to dangerous levels.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke views Japan’s lost decade as the result of policies that were not fast and aggressive enough. As I have described many times, with his Sun in Jupiter-ruled Sagittarius opposing Jupiter in Mercury-ruled Gemini, together with Mercury and Venus in Sagittarius, Chairman Bernanke views the danger of under reacting to be greater than Jupiter's overreacting to the point of excess. Bernanke is considered to be a scholar of the Great Depression, and it appears the U.S. is paralleling the 1930s rather than Japan in the 1990s. He believes the Fed tightened too soon then; now economic conditions could retrench as the Fed keeps policy too low for too long.
The stock market collapse in October 1929 was followed by a rapid reversal on the hope the country could enter into a period of austerity while the economy recovered. By July 1932, the economy and the stock market had relapsed. Now the market could be repeating the same timeline. Uranus is in Aries for the first time since the 1930s, bringing a return to the extreme heat and drought. Pluto in Cancer only accentuated the geophysical and economic extreme from boom to bust. Pluto has been in Cancer’s opposite sign Capricorn since 2008 and now is the first time since the 1930s that Uranus and Pluto are making a challenging alignment to each other which will be exact during 2012-2015.
What makes this period worse than the 1930s is that we cannot count on construction bailing us out. The nation’s debt level (Pluto) wasn’t what it is now, and none of this was happening as the nation undergoes a Saturn return. Saturn in its home sign Capricorn was squaring Uranus in Aries and opposing Pluto in Cancer during the early 1930s. The nation literally dug itself out of the depths of the economic crisis through structural (Saturn) endeavors sponsored by the government (Saturn/Capricorn). New endeavors (Uranus in Aries) such as Social Security, FDIC insurance on bank deposits, and investor protections were enacted to create a basic social safety net for the general public (Pluto in nurturing Cancer).
While monetary policy has reached its limits, the lesson learned from the 1930s is that public works projects put people back to work while improving the nation’s infrastructure which benefitted the economy and the entire nation.
The return of “merger Monday” brought an overreaction to the upside on the news that Google (GOOG) will buy Motorola Mobility (MMI) for $12.5 billion. I interpret the excitement over acquiring patents and “patent wars” as a signal that innovation is slowing and the market is saturated. Increased M&A activity is a sign that companies must acquire as they’re having trouble growing fast enough organically. Zero interest rates fuels M&A activity which in turn reduces innovation while increasing unemployment. To further elaborate on footnote (1), telecom comprised part of the 1990s tech bubble which resulted from the breakup of the MaBell during the 1980s. Now telecom’s consolidation of power is working against economic growth!
The market had already reversed back to negative Tuesday by the time the Sun in Leo exactly conjoined Mercury and Venus as the two planets conjoined each other. Not only did evidence point to growth in the Eurozone slowing down, but Germany’s GDP at 0.1% in the second quarter came in lower than the Eurozone overall. No country is exempt from economic contraction when Saturn impacts a country’s natal Sun (the heart and life force). As Saturn recently conjoined Germany’s (and China’s) natal Suns in Libra and impact natal Uranus (shocks/surprises; upheavals), Uranus and Pluto are making challenging alignments to other key planets in their charts. And since China and Germany are not exempt from economic contraction, that puts additional pressure on the U.S. economy.
At the same time growth is slowing, higher costs are exerting additional pressures on growth. U.S. producer prices in July were up 7.6% year/year. At 2.5%, Core PPI was the highest since June 2009. Mars in Cancer aspecting Jupiter in Taurus at the time PPI and CPI for July was released last week reflected an increase in the cost of goods and services. Consumer prices increased 0.5% or 3.6% year/year. Core CPI is running at 1.8% year over year near the upper end of the Fed’s target range. Indeed, core CPI is double what it was when Bernanke gave his speech in Jackson Hole last August. Mars in Cancer reflects the cost of food and shelter remains elevated and is not “transitory.” Mortgage rates are at record lows, yet the cost to maintain a home or to rent continues to rise.
Mars in Cancer conjoined the degree of the July 1 Solar Eclipse Tuesday, sparking a rapid selloff after the meeting between President Sarkozy and PM Merkel failed to meet the market’s hopes for a “big bang.” The market had hoped the two leaders would announce a plan to create Eurobonds, but with Mercury retrograde, they reintroduced a financial transaction tax which was rejected in 2010.
The Sun conjoining Mercury and Venus in Leo describes what leaders (Sun/Leo) say (Mercury) about fiscal and monetary matters (Venus). Mercury conjoining Venus tends to indicate that communications are pleasant and upbeat. Like the market, I had high hopes these energies could tone down the discord. At its highest potential these energies indicate that people – especially leaders – need to communicate with words that can heal rather than hurt.
The Sun/Mercury/Venus influence reflects comments made about or by central bankers. But there was nothing pleasant about Texas Governor and Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry’s remarks about Chairman Bernanke:
“If this guy prints more money between now and the election, I don’t know what y’all would do to him in Iowa, but we would treat him pretty ugly down in Texas. I mean printing more money to play politics at this particular time in American history is almost treacherous er treasonous in my opinion.”
Long time readers of this blog know how much I intensly disagree with monetary policy and the reappointment of Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman. But to say I found it deeply disturbing that the leader of a state thought nothing of making a veiled threat against the Fed Chairman would be an understatement. And the fact that Gov. Perry is not publicly apologizing that his “treasonous” remarks were a mistake was even more disturbing. Disagreements over policy and ideology must be expressed in a respectful manner and not as a personal attack/threat. Saturn in Libra can present difficulties in relating to one another, but it also reflects that those in positions of authority must adhere to a higher standard of decorum and civility.
And if Perry’s remarks about Chairman Bernanke were not enough to digest, Dallas FRB president Richard Fisher who was one of three dissenters at the August 9 FOMC meeting clearly crossed the boundaries (Saturn again!) in an interview with CNBC’s Larry Kudlow Thursday. Although the Fed is supposed to be independent, they are political. But Fisher’s remarks that “so much regulatory uncertainty” is one of the factors holding the economy back is the first time I have publicly heard a member of the Fed take a partisan political stance. Rules and regulations (Saturn) have existed for as long as governments have existed, yet somehow companies have always found ways to make a profit.
Although the indices were briefly positive on Friday, the indices closed the week at the session’s lows.
Summary Of This Week’s Influences:
Mars in Cancer squaring Saturn in Libra this week as the USA experiences its Saturn return is likely to exert more selling pressure on the market and accelerate fears that growth is slowing down.
The Last Quarter Moon in Venus-ruled Taurus occurred Sunday at 5:54 PM EDT shortly before Venus completed its sojourn in Leo and moved into Virgo until September 14. Venus switching signs can correspond to currency reversals, especially with Venus’ ruler Mercury being retrograde. Venus in Virgo together with the Sun entering Virgo Tuesday morning and next Sunday’s Virgo New Moon, can be beneficial for people looking for employment and can indicate wage increases. The Sun and Venus in Virgo is likely to increase scrutiny of asset price valuations as this sign loves to crunch the numbers.
Venus in Leo opposed Neptune in Aquarius Sunday and on Monday the Sun will oppose Neptune as the planet makes its closest approach to Earth this year. Full Moons mark a culmination point, and this is the “Full Moon” phase of the Sun/Neptune cycle that began on February 17 when the planets were conjoined in revolutionary and freedom loving Aquarius. Reflecting those energies, a “day of rage” was declared by protesters in Libya that day following the arrest of a human rights activist involved in freeing political prisoners (Neptune).
After reaching new highs at the Full Moon on February 18, the market turned bearish February 22 and Neptune-ruled oil spiked after protests erupted throughout Libya after Col. Gadhafi’s mercenaries fired on demonstrators in Tripoli. In a post written in late January I noted that “tensions could be rising in Libya” and that Gadhafi would be defeated during the three month timeframe the Summer Solstice forecast is in effect.
Mercury turned retrograde squaring Gadhafi’s Uranus/Saturn conjunction in Gemini, reversing the inroads he had made in keeping rebel forces out of Tripoli. As Mars in Cancer conjoins his progressed Jupiter as Saturn in Libra squares it this week, Gadhafi could have one brief final hurrah of freedom before his authority is curtailed. The Last Quarter Moon in Taurus rising over Tripoli reflects the public taking charge from a dictator who has stubbornly refused to accede to their wishes. Saturn conjoining Libra’s progressed Sun in October reflects the fall of the dictator who has ruled Libya since 1969.
The influence of the Sun and Venus opposing Neptune reinforces the energies of Mercury’s oppositions to Neptune (July 29 and August 8) which color the entire Mercury retrograde cycle. Rumors, false information, contagion concerns – these are the types of things that the market is reacting to now. The Moon in Mercury-ruled Gemini Monday and Tuesday only accentuates the energies of Mercury retrograde. Although I think the market will be to the downside Monday, any piece of news has the potential to cause market fluctuations in either direction amongst an atmosphere of illusion, delusion, and confusion.
The Moon enters its home sign Cancer Wednesday until midday Friday, conjoining Mars and squaring Saturn as Mars squares Saturn. This can bring selling pressure along with public anger over the cost of consumer staples and continuing contraction in home values. It also reflects the frustration banks are experiencing in cutting a deal with the government to settle claims of foreclosure fraud.
Venus in Virgo harmonizing with Pluto in Capricorn Thursday evening could bring M&A news. This together with the anticipation that the Treasury market will be a beneficiary when Fed Chairman Bernanke gives his speech at the Fed’s symposium in Jackson Hole Friday at 10:00 AM (ET), could find the market feeling more upbeat early Friday. However, the Moon in a stressful alignment to Neptune later Friday morning indicates the market might need to adjust its expectations concerning what the Fed can do at this point to make a difference beyond ensuring the financial system has adequate liquidity and is structurally sound. Here are projections of what the Golden One thinks Bernanke will say in his speech which if correct would confirm what I wrote in the Mercury retrograde post that Bernanke would not announce a QE3. As mentioned in my Fed post last week, reviving “Operation Twist” is the only potential possibility because as Goldman writes, the Fed is not going to embark on anything “unconventional.” I’ve previously written that Uranus in Aries squaring the Fed’s natal Sun and Pluto this year is one factor which indicates a reversal of policy is beginning despite what the FOMC statement said.
The Moon enters Leo at 12:09 PM Friday which could improve sentiment. Mercury turns direct at 6:03 PM EDT, just in time for the weekend and Sunday evening’s New Moon in Virgo. Any market gains made between the end of August and early September are likely to be temporary as a lot more market turbulence looks to be in store for the Autumnal Equinox and the September 27 Libra New Moon.
Monday, August 22, 2011
Negative (but potential setup for fluctuating conditions in either direction).
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Negative.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Choppy/mixed conditions deteriorate to negative.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Negative; improves as the day progresses.
Friday, August 26, 2011
Positive conditions could reverse in the late morning before starting to improve again as the afternoon progresses.
(1) After closing at 2,873.65 on April 29, 2011, the Nasdaq Composite had regained 57% of its March 10, 2000 record high of 5,048.62. Uranus is the planetary ruler of technology; Saturn conjoining the Nasdaq’s natal Uranus in Libra has recently been exerting downward pressure on the tech-heavy index. Mercury turning retrograde in Virgo squaring the Nasdaq’s natal Jupiter and Neptune in Sagittarius indicates rethinking a sector that has experienced such outsized gains. Jupiter in Taurus demands tangible evidence that growth is real and not just hype. Companies that fail to deliver either dividends or tangible growth will have lower valuations in the current economic environment.
WallStreetWeather.net Forecast For Week Of August 15, 2011
Summary Of Last Week’s Influences:
Last week the market experienced a volatile rollercoaster ride that saw the Dow make four consecutive moves of 400+ point moves in 4 days in a week of triple digit Dow moves. The wildest moves took place on Tuesday which saw the Dow trade in a 640 point range as the Federal Reserve announced it was extending its extended period of near zero interest rates until at least mid-2013.
As described in my post about the Federal Reserve’s actions last week, Mars in Cancer squaring Uranus in Aries and opposing Pluto in Capricorn while operating outside the normal boundaries of planetary declination was responsible for generating wild and crazy market moves not experienced since October 2008 when Mercury was retrograde. Despite the market’s huge intraday moves, the major indices finished down the week by only around 1.5%.
Mercury retrograde is providing a replay that reminds us again of the financial crisis as the indices haven't been this volatile since October 2008 when Mercury was also retrograde . Last week was the first time since that time that I heard people reprise the question “who’s next?” Mercury retrograde opposing Neptune describes the rumors and contagion concerns that French banks could be downgraded on the sovereign debt they’re holding. Worries about how much U.S. money market assets have invested in French banks coupled with concerns that Bank of America (BAC) might not have enough capital greatly contributed to the banks being the weakest performing sector last week.
Banks are ruled by Venus and with Jupiter in Taurus and Saturn in Libra both in signs ruled by Venus, growth is slow and steady at best as banks must make many adjustments as they transition back to basic banking. As mentioned in a post last November when Venus became a morning star (which tends to correspond to the market's best performance of the year), Venus has disappeared from the morning sky since mid-July as it transitions to appearing in the evening sky around the time of the Autumnal Equinox. Even if the stock market does not decline for the rest of the year it is unlikely the market will return to its late April highs. At best, the market will stagnate and trade in a range.
Summary Of This Week’s Influences:
Thursday and Friday’s market moves were largely attributed to the news that German PM Angela Merkel will visit French president Nicholas Sarkozy Tuesday in Paris to discuss proposals to increase economic governance of the Eurozone. France, Italy, Spain, and Belgium announced a ban on shorting financial stocks – something that did not work when it was instituted in the U.S. during September/October 2008.
The Moon is Void-of-Course in Pisces Monday and Tuesday. Combined with Mercury retrograde, the early part of the week is far more suitable for reflection and relaxation, especially with the Sun, Mercury and Venus conjoined in fun loving Leo. Creative self-expression and engaging in pleasurable activities are more suited to these influences than accomplishing anything important. People tend to be more cooperative and leaders are more apt to reach agreement now but anything agreed to might not be clear and is likely to be temporary in some way with Mercury retrograde.
August 17, 2007 was the last time the Sun conjoined Venus in Leo and Mercury and Venus conjoined in Leo. Markets tend to be positive to bullish under these influences, and that day was when the Fed cut the discount rate 0.50% to 5.75%. The difference then was that Venus was retrograde vs. now it is Mercury that is retrograde. Mercury is at the midpoint of its retrograde cycle now which can correspond to change in trend at this time.
The atmosphere abruptly shifts Wednesday when the Moon enters Aries and squares Aries’ ruler Mars as Mars conjoins the July 1 Solar Eclipse, and then aspects Jupiter in Taurus the next day. Expectations that are not met could start a sell off.
Financials are in focus Friday as the Moon is in Venus-ruled Taurus on a Venus-ruled day! The Sun and Venus squaring the NYSE natal Sun in Taurus tends to be positive for the market.
This week is likely to be much less volatile than last week which could help the indices to temporarily regain their footing.
Monday, August 15, 2011
Positive early but could reverse and become choppy to negative intraday before turning positive again.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Positive.
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Negative.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Negative conditions improve as the day progresses.
Friday, August 19, 2011 (Options expiration)
Positive.
Last week the market experienced a volatile rollercoaster ride that saw the Dow make four consecutive moves of 400+ point moves in 4 days in a week of triple digit Dow moves. The wildest moves took place on Tuesday which saw the Dow trade in a 640 point range as the Federal Reserve announced it was extending its extended period of near zero interest rates until at least mid-2013.
As described in my post about the Federal Reserve’s actions last week, Mars in Cancer squaring Uranus in Aries and opposing Pluto in Capricorn while operating outside the normal boundaries of planetary declination was responsible for generating wild and crazy market moves not experienced since October 2008 when Mercury was retrograde. Despite the market’s huge intraday moves, the major indices finished down the week by only around 1.5%.
Mercury retrograde is providing a replay that reminds us again of the financial crisis as the indices haven't been this volatile since October 2008 when Mercury was also retrograde . Last week was the first time since that time that I heard people reprise the question “who’s next?” Mercury retrograde opposing Neptune describes the rumors and contagion concerns that French banks could be downgraded on the sovereign debt they’re holding. Worries about how much U.S. money market assets have invested in French banks coupled with concerns that Bank of America (BAC) might not have enough capital greatly contributed to the banks being the weakest performing sector last week.
Banks are ruled by Venus and with Jupiter in Taurus and Saturn in Libra both in signs ruled by Venus, growth is slow and steady at best as banks must make many adjustments as they transition back to basic banking. As mentioned in a post last November when Venus became a morning star (which tends to correspond to the market's best performance of the year), Venus has disappeared from the morning sky since mid-July as it transitions to appearing in the evening sky around the time of the Autumnal Equinox. Even if the stock market does not decline for the rest of the year it is unlikely the market will return to its late April highs. At best, the market will stagnate and trade in a range.
Summary Of This Week’s Influences:
Thursday and Friday’s market moves were largely attributed to the news that German PM Angela Merkel will visit French president Nicholas Sarkozy Tuesday in Paris to discuss proposals to increase economic governance of the Eurozone. France, Italy, Spain, and Belgium announced a ban on shorting financial stocks – something that did not work when it was instituted in the U.S. during September/October 2008.
The Moon is Void-of-Course in Pisces Monday and Tuesday. Combined with Mercury retrograde, the early part of the week is far more suitable for reflection and relaxation, especially with the Sun, Mercury and Venus conjoined in fun loving Leo. Creative self-expression and engaging in pleasurable activities are more suited to these influences than accomplishing anything important. People tend to be more cooperative and leaders are more apt to reach agreement now but anything agreed to might not be clear and is likely to be temporary in some way with Mercury retrograde.
August 17, 2007 was the last time the Sun conjoined Venus in Leo and Mercury and Venus conjoined in Leo. Markets tend to be positive to bullish under these influences, and that day was when the Fed cut the discount rate 0.50% to 5.75%. The difference then was that Venus was retrograde vs. now it is Mercury that is retrograde. Mercury is at the midpoint of its retrograde cycle now which can correspond to change in trend at this time.
The atmosphere abruptly shifts Wednesday when the Moon enters Aries and squares Aries’ ruler Mars as Mars conjoins the July 1 Solar Eclipse, and then aspects Jupiter in Taurus the next day. Expectations that are not met could start a sell off.
Financials are in focus Friday as the Moon is in Venus-ruled Taurus on a Venus-ruled day! The Sun and Venus squaring the NYSE natal Sun in Taurus tends to be positive for the market.
This week is likely to be much less volatile than last week which could help the indices to temporarily regain their footing.
Monday, August 15, 2011
Positive early but could reverse and become choppy to negative intraday before turning positive again.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Positive.
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Negative.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Negative conditions improve as the day progresses.
Friday, August 19, 2011 (Options expiration)
Positive.
Federal Reserve Surprises as Mars squares Uranus
Published by WallStreetWeather.net
Wild, volatile, sharp reversal; confusing message. These were a few of the most frequently cited words to describe the market’s reaction following the release of the statement from the Federal Reserve’s August 9 meeting.
These words succinctly express the “as above, so below” principle in action! Whenever the energy of Uranus is strong, volatility is elevated as the market tends to behave wildly and in unexpected ways. Uranus energy likes to shock and is prone to breaking through support and resistance levels. Reversals are common when Uranus forms a challenging alignment to another planet.(1)
Mars is action and when it is strong, there is an overwhelming drive to do something NOW! Mars in Cancer triggers the shocking and intense energies of Uranus and Pluto as they form their closest square to each other this year. Their energies are a harbinger of the shocks and unexpected events that bring massive transformation as Uranus and Pluto make seven exact squares between June 2012 and March 2015.
Mars in Cancer squaring Uranus in Aries describes unexpected and impulsive action resulting from the instinctual need to create greater security. The need to protect is so strong it necessitates an urgency to break new ground and do what has never been done before. (Since Aries is ruled by Mars, aspects between Mars and Uranus in Aries become even more feverish.) Mars in Cancer about to exactly oppose Pluto in Capricorn increased the demand for action affecting interest rates and government debt. Mars operating “out-of-bounds” beyond the normal degree of planetary declination July 24 – August 22 only accentuates the rapid wild and crazy behavior of Uranus.(2)
Even before the Fed’s second round of $600 billion in Treasury purchases (“QE2”) concluded on June 30, Wall Street was already behaving like an addict who knows their fix is about to run out. Those “market participants” who know about Mercury’s retrograde cycle thought that Mercury turning retrograde August 2 would bring the return of quantitative easing.(3)
Mars moving into Cancer and harmonizing with Neptune in Pisces August 3 was another indication the market was seeking a return of their Fed-fix as a security blanket to cling to as the stock market continued its downward descent. Part of the water element, Cancer and Pisces rule the world of feelings. Surely a shot of something from the Fed would make the market feel better!
Planets entering initiating (cardinal) signs in the past have often corresponded to the Fed taking action, especially transiting Venus (monetary policy) and Mars. As Mars in Cancer conjoined the Fed’s natal Pluto, opposed its natal Sun (the Chairman), and squared the Fed’s Aries Midheaven (its reputation), the market’s demand for the Fed to act became even more aggressive.
As Mercury re-entered Leo (the sign ruling speculation) and opposed Neptune which had re-entered Aquarius (the sign ruled by Uranus) the day before the FOMC meeting, news article titles (“Fed Has Some Tricks Left, but None Are Magic” and “The Fed’s Uninspiring Options”), accurately described the opposition between Mercury retrograde and Neptune. Addictions, magic, inspiration, and illusion are part of Neptune’s domain. Interest rates at virtually zero, more than ample liquidity, and two rounds of QE have done nothing to spur economic growth and reduce unemployment, but monetary policy can take credit for two things:
1. Cheap money and QE has inflated asset prices by pushing investors into stocks and other risky assets to recreate the “wealth effect.” When people feel wealthier, they’re more likely to spend money.
2. Cheap money and QE has kept Treasury yields abnormally low which keeps the federal deficit much lower than it otherwise would have been.
After the Dow dropped 635 points August 8, the indices reversed to positive before the market opened the following day. The combination of Mars exactly squaring Uranus on the day of the FOMC meeting combined with Mars opposing Pluto together with Mercury retrograde opposing Neptune, generated rumors the Fed wouldn’t even wait until 2:15 PM to announce “QE3.”
Another factor contributing to the volatility of Mars in Cancer is that Cancer is ruled by the Moon. The Moon represents market sentiment which is always in flux as the Moon frequently aspects other planets and changes signs every 2.5 days. As described in the Weekly Forecast, the Moon was in Sagittarius. Ruled by Jupiter the largest planet in our solar system, the Moon in Sagittarius tends to correspond to big market moves to the point of excess in either direction.(4)
Having the energies of Uranus prominent increased the likelihood the market would reverse more than once in the same day. And so would the chance of the Fed doing something surprising and shocking that had never been done before. Sagittarius is symbolized by the Archer. Born with his Sun (self-identity) in Sagittarius opposing Jupiter in Gemini, Chairman Bernanke never wants to give the appearance the Fed is out of arrows.
Although the Fed’s forecasts (and mine) attempt to gauge the future, both are formulated under the planetary influences and conditions in effect at the time. While I can only speak for myself, I would say that neither forecast methodology adequately took into account the intense determination of corporate interests to destroy government regulation by providing support and funding to the most extreme conservative elements of the Republican Party to be their puppets. If it means turning a downturn/correction into a full blown bear market and the economy into a double dip recession for political gain, so be it. While both political parties have always had members advocating their party’s ideological extremes, the GOP has become a party controlled by the far out fringes who have thrown compromise, reason, and facts out the window.
Bernanke and the other dovish members of the FOMC such as Vice Chair Janet Yellen and NY FRB president William (let them eat iPads) Dudley have probably become concerned that after the debt ceiling debacle which led to the S&P downgrade, the Fed needs to act to counter the damage inflicted on the fiscal side.
After being up close to 250 points at midday Tuesday, the Dow was up just over 100 points when the FOMC statement was released. Immediately the market reversed to negative and then became choppy, before the Dow declined 200 points less than a half hour later. With Mercury retrograde opposite Neptune and the Moon Void-of-Course in Sagittarius, the market was confused and initially unable to decide what to make of the statement.
The Sun and Leo represent confidence which is needed to spur speculation. “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that economic growth so far this year has been considerably slower than the Committee expected” is not a statement to inspire confidence. (But then again, leaving rates at virtually zero since December 2008 during the heart of the financial crisis doesn’t either.)
And it doesn’t get any better:
“The Committee now expects a somewhat slower pace of recovery over coming quarters than it did at the time of the previous meeting and anticipates the unemployment rate will decline only gradually…” “Moreover, downside risks to the economic outlook have increased.” (bold emphasis mine)
Which led to the Fed’s unexpected surprise to boldly go where no FOMC has gone before (Uranus in Aries together with everything else I’ve explained!):
“The Committee currently anticipates that economic conditions—including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run—are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.”
I continue to remind myself never to underestimate the Fed’s ability to create more ways to keep monetary policy fast and loose (especially as long as the Fed is under the leadership of Mr. Jupiter who thus far has never deviated from his archetype), “market participants” should also keep in the back of their minds what I have emboldened in the extract from the FOMC statement.
The Fed is telling us that their projection of keeping rock bottom rates until “at least mid-2013” is “likely” if economic conditions continue to unfold as the Fed “currently anticipates.” “Likely” is not a guarantee. In keeping with what we’re supposed to be doing when Mercury is retrograde, let’s return to mid-March 2008 when the NY Fed told Bear Stearns they had a reprieve of up to 28 days. While Bear Stearns and its shareholders interpreted that to mean a 28 day lifeline, then NY FRB president Timothy Geithner quickly reminded everyone that “up to” was not 28 days as the investment bank was sold off two days later to JPMorgan Chase. The Fed’s forecasts are subject to change and so is monetary policy.
Beyond the Fed stating it “will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings,” the Fed’s balance sheet is not subject to the same extended period “commitment” that interest rates are. The market then sharply reversed sharply to the upside after deciding it not only liked that the Fed had extended the extended period beyond two to three meetings, but also that the Fed “discussed the range of policy tools to promote a stronger economic recovery…” and is “prepared to employ these tools as appropriate.”
PIMCO’s Bill Gross has said if you want to know what’s left in the Fed’s toolbox, re-read Bernanke’s infamous “helicopter” speech entitled “Deflation: Making Sure ‘It’ Doesn’t Happen Here” that Bernanke gave on November 21, 2002 as a member of the Fed Board of Governors. The market is fixated on a third round of QE but like any addiction, the dosage has to be higher than the previous fix in order to generate even a temporary market high. QE2 created somewhat of a political firestorm when it was formally announced last November and it is likely a QE3 would fare the same since QE2 has only increased costs for consumers.
With other potential options out of the question in the current political climate, the only other things left in the toolbox would be to purchase 10 and even 30 year Treasuries. Beyond helping speculators who have been buying these Treasuries in the hopes of “front running” the Fed for a capital gain, such a move would have virtually no economic benefit. But should demand for Fannie and Freddie mortgage bonds and securities should dry up, it is likely the Fed will pick up the slack. Maintaining low mortgage rates is a tool the Fed is unlikely to abandon.
In a post written last November I predicted that “one of the unexpected shockwaves could be a rebellion coming from within the Fed.” Three Committee members – Richard Fisher (Dallas FRB), Charles Plosser (Philadelphia FRB), and Narayana Kocherlakota (Minneapolis FRB) disagreed with extending the “extended period.” In keeping with Mercury retrograde, this was the first time there were multiple dissenters since the November 17, 1992 FOMC meeting when Mercury was …. retrograde. Mars was in Cancer then too, having made an opposition to Uranus (and Neptune) the previous month.
Since the market had such high expectations the Fed would announce QE3 at the meeting, I thought that Mars squaring Uranus together with all the other influences would give the market something unexpected – no action. That’s why I didn’t write anything beyond commenting in the Mercury retrograde post that the market shouldn’t expect Bernanke to announce QE3 at Jackson Hole on August 26. The only thing that appeared more plausible under these influences was if the Fed revived and updated the twist. (“Operation Twist” was named after the dance craze made famous by Chubby Checker in the song “The Twist.” )
Announced by JFK February 2, 1961 (six months before President Obama was born), Operation Twist sought to lower long term interest rates while keeping short term interest rates unchanged to stimulate the economy which was in a recession. (It didn’t work then either.) Venus was in Aries and Mars was in Cancer and OOB like now as both planets impacted the Fed’s natal Sun/Pluto/Midheaven then. (The Fed was experiencing a Jupiter return then which reflected intervention due to foreign exchange rate discrepancy.)
With Mercury retrogradeand the Moon Void-of-Course at the time of the Fed’s announcement, the market shouldn’t be surprised if monetary policy, economic, and market conditions turn out differently than the FOMC statement anticipated.(5)
The Fed needs to think outside the toolbox. Instead of buying bonds, Bernanke needs to buy bridges to lower unemployment and help grow the economy! The Fed would only be able to have to set up a lending facility to support the largest infrastructure projects such as interstate highway construction or the electrical grid. Even under the guise of monetary rather than fiscal policy, I am sure a policy would not be politically palatable.
As the USA experiences its Saturn return (and Bernanke starts to experience his Saturn return in November 2012), the market and the Fed must come to terms with the fact that monetary policy is unable to help the economy at this point in time.
(1)This also includes the Sun and Moon even though they are luminaries and not planets.
(2)As mentioned in my post on Mercury retrograde (see above link), declination represents the celestial latitude of a planet (including the luminaries) north or south of the celestial equator. Any planet moving past 23 degrees 27 minutes (north or south) of its declination is considered to be “out-of-bounds” (OOB) which brings out the most extreme and eccentric behavior of that planet’s energy. For example, Venus (money/banking) was OOB May 6 – June 8, 2010. Venus going OOB reflects the planetary energy acting “Uranus-like” at that time. The May 6 “flash crash” precipitated by the European sovereign debt crisis saw the market suddenly and shockingly break through the boundaries which led the SEC to first test a new circuit breaker system June 7 in response to the flash crash to keep trading within “acceptable” boundaries.
Note that Mercury was also retrograde at the time of the May 6 flash crash (until May 11, 2010). And just as Mars began being OOB in Mercury-ruled Gemini before entering Moon-ruled Cancer August 3, Venus was transiting Mercury-ruled Gemini until May 19 when Venus entered Moon-ruled Cancer until June 14, 2010. Clearly the examples of Venus and Mars OOB in Gemini (especially when Mercury is retrograde) and Cancer further accentuates their unpredictable and fluctuating nature when operating OOB.
(3) Fed-speak for stock market participants.
(4)The USA is a Jupiter-ruled nation since Sagittarius is the sign on the Ascendant of the USA chart. The Ascendant or first sector of the chart represents the nation’s physical appearance (physical terrain as well as its people) and outlook. Jupiter conjoining Venus as well as the Sun in Cancer in the USA chart describes a nation that is eternally optimistic and far too focused on the short term.
(5) The Moon is VOC when it has finished making any major relationships to the Sun or other planets before entering the next zodiac sign. These times are best for doing routine things where no specific outcome is needed.
NOTE:Striked correction made September 23, 2011.
Wild, volatile, sharp reversal; confusing message. These were a few of the most frequently cited words to describe the market’s reaction following the release of the statement from the Federal Reserve’s August 9 meeting.
These words succinctly express the “as above, so below” principle in action! Whenever the energy of Uranus is strong, volatility is elevated as the market tends to behave wildly and in unexpected ways. Uranus energy likes to shock and is prone to breaking through support and resistance levels. Reversals are common when Uranus forms a challenging alignment to another planet.(1)
Mars is action and when it is strong, there is an overwhelming drive to do something NOW! Mars in Cancer triggers the shocking and intense energies of Uranus and Pluto as they form their closest square to each other this year. Their energies are a harbinger of the shocks and unexpected events that bring massive transformation as Uranus and Pluto make seven exact squares between June 2012 and March 2015.
Mars in Cancer squaring Uranus in Aries describes unexpected and impulsive action resulting from the instinctual need to create greater security. The need to protect is so strong it necessitates an urgency to break new ground and do what has never been done before. (Since Aries is ruled by Mars, aspects between Mars and Uranus in Aries become even more feverish.) Mars in Cancer about to exactly oppose Pluto in Capricorn increased the demand for action affecting interest rates and government debt. Mars operating “out-of-bounds” beyond the normal degree of planetary declination July 24 – August 22 only accentuates the rapid wild and crazy behavior of Uranus.(2)
Even before the Fed’s second round of $600 billion in Treasury purchases (“QE2”) concluded on June 30, Wall Street was already behaving like an addict who knows their fix is about to run out. Those “market participants” who know about Mercury’s retrograde cycle thought that Mercury turning retrograde August 2 would bring the return of quantitative easing.(3)
Mars moving into Cancer and harmonizing with Neptune in Pisces August 3 was another indication the market was seeking a return of their Fed-fix as a security blanket to cling to as the stock market continued its downward descent. Part of the water element, Cancer and Pisces rule the world of feelings. Surely a shot of something from the Fed would make the market feel better!
Planets entering initiating (cardinal) signs in the past have often corresponded to the Fed taking action, especially transiting Venus (monetary policy) and Mars. As Mars in Cancer conjoined the Fed’s natal Pluto, opposed its natal Sun (the Chairman), and squared the Fed’s Aries Midheaven (its reputation), the market’s demand for the Fed to act became even more aggressive.
As Mercury re-entered Leo (the sign ruling speculation) and opposed Neptune which had re-entered Aquarius (the sign ruled by Uranus) the day before the FOMC meeting, news article titles (“Fed Has Some Tricks Left, but None Are Magic” and “The Fed’s Uninspiring Options”), accurately described the opposition between Mercury retrograde and Neptune. Addictions, magic, inspiration, and illusion are part of Neptune’s domain. Interest rates at virtually zero, more than ample liquidity, and two rounds of QE have done nothing to spur economic growth and reduce unemployment, but monetary policy can take credit for two things:
1. Cheap money and QE has inflated asset prices by pushing investors into stocks and other risky assets to recreate the “wealth effect.” When people feel wealthier, they’re more likely to spend money.
2. Cheap money and QE has kept Treasury yields abnormally low which keeps the federal deficit much lower than it otherwise would have been.
After the Dow dropped 635 points August 8, the indices reversed to positive before the market opened the following day. The combination of Mars exactly squaring Uranus on the day of the FOMC meeting combined with Mars opposing Pluto together with Mercury retrograde opposing Neptune, generated rumors the Fed wouldn’t even wait until 2:15 PM to announce “QE3.”
Another factor contributing to the volatility of Mars in Cancer is that Cancer is ruled by the Moon. The Moon represents market sentiment which is always in flux as the Moon frequently aspects other planets and changes signs every 2.5 days. As described in the Weekly Forecast, the Moon was in Sagittarius. Ruled by Jupiter the largest planet in our solar system, the Moon in Sagittarius tends to correspond to big market moves to the point of excess in either direction.(4)
Having the energies of Uranus prominent increased the likelihood the market would reverse more than once in the same day. And so would the chance of the Fed doing something surprising and shocking that had never been done before. Sagittarius is symbolized by the Archer. Born with his Sun (self-identity) in Sagittarius opposing Jupiter in Gemini, Chairman Bernanke never wants to give the appearance the Fed is out of arrows.
Although the Fed’s forecasts (and mine) attempt to gauge the future, both are formulated under the planetary influences and conditions in effect at the time. While I can only speak for myself, I would say that neither forecast methodology adequately took into account the intense determination of corporate interests to destroy government regulation by providing support and funding to the most extreme conservative elements of the Republican Party to be their puppets. If it means turning a downturn/correction into a full blown bear market and the economy into a double dip recession for political gain, so be it. While both political parties have always had members advocating their party’s ideological extremes, the GOP has become a party controlled by the far out fringes who have thrown compromise, reason, and facts out the window.
Bernanke and the other dovish members of the FOMC such as Vice Chair Janet Yellen and NY FRB president William (let them eat iPads) Dudley have probably become concerned that after the debt ceiling debacle which led to the S&P downgrade, the Fed needs to act to counter the damage inflicted on the fiscal side.
After being up close to 250 points at midday Tuesday, the Dow was up just over 100 points when the FOMC statement was released. Immediately the market reversed to negative and then became choppy, before the Dow declined 200 points less than a half hour later. With Mercury retrograde opposite Neptune and the Moon Void-of-Course in Sagittarius, the market was confused and initially unable to decide what to make of the statement.
The Sun and Leo represent confidence which is needed to spur speculation. “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that economic growth so far this year has been considerably slower than the Committee expected” is not a statement to inspire confidence. (But then again, leaving rates at virtually zero since December 2008 during the heart of the financial crisis doesn’t either.)
And it doesn’t get any better:
“The Committee now expects a somewhat slower pace of recovery over coming quarters than it did at the time of the previous meeting and anticipates the unemployment rate will decline only gradually…” “Moreover, downside risks to the economic outlook have increased.” (bold emphasis mine)
Which led to the Fed’s unexpected surprise to boldly go where no FOMC has gone before (Uranus in Aries together with everything else I’ve explained!):
“The Committee currently anticipates that economic conditions—including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run—are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.”
I continue to remind myself never to underestimate the Fed’s ability to create more ways to keep monetary policy fast and loose (especially as long as the Fed is under the leadership of Mr. Jupiter who thus far has never deviated from his archetype), “market participants” should also keep in the back of their minds what I have emboldened in the extract from the FOMC statement.
The Fed is telling us that their projection of keeping rock bottom rates until “at least mid-2013” is “likely” if economic conditions continue to unfold as the Fed “currently anticipates.” “Likely” is not a guarantee. In keeping with what we’re supposed to be doing when Mercury is retrograde, let’s return to mid-March 2008 when the NY Fed told Bear Stearns they had a reprieve of up to 28 days. While Bear Stearns and its shareholders interpreted that to mean a 28 day lifeline, then NY FRB president Timothy Geithner quickly reminded everyone that “up to” was not 28 days as the investment bank was sold off two days later to JPMorgan Chase. The Fed’s forecasts are subject to change and so is monetary policy.
Beyond the Fed stating it “will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings,” the Fed’s balance sheet is not subject to the same extended period “commitment” that interest rates are. The market then sharply reversed sharply to the upside after deciding it not only liked that the Fed had extended the extended period beyond two to three meetings, but also that the Fed “discussed the range of policy tools to promote a stronger economic recovery…” and is “prepared to employ these tools as appropriate.”
PIMCO’s Bill Gross has said if you want to know what’s left in the Fed’s toolbox, re-read Bernanke’s infamous “helicopter” speech entitled “Deflation: Making Sure ‘It’ Doesn’t Happen Here” that Bernanke gave on November 21, 2002 as a member of the Fed Board of Governors. The market is fixated on a third round of QE but like any addiction, the dosage has to be higher than the previous fix in order to generate even a temporary market high. QE2 created somewhat of a political firestorm when it was formally announced last November and it is likely a QE3 would fare the same since QE2 has only increased costs for consumers.
With other potential options out of the question in the current political climate, the only other things left in the toolbox would be to purchase 10 and even 30 year Treasuries. Beyond helping speculators who have been buying these Treasuries in the hopes of “front running” the Fed for a capital gain, such a move would have virtually no economic benefit. But should demand for Fannie and Freddie mortgage bonds and securities should dry up, it is likely the Fed will pick up the slack. Maintaining low mortgage rates is a tool the Fed is unlikely to abandon.
In a post written last November I predicted that “one of the unexpected shockwaves could be a rebellion coming from within the Fed.” Three Committee members – Richard Fisher (Dallas FRB), Charles Plosser (Philadelphia FRB), and Narayana Kocherlakota (Minneapolis FRB) disagreed with extending the “extended period.” In keeping with Mercury retrograde, this was the first time there were multiple dissenters since the November 17, 1992 FOMC meeting when Mercury was …. retrograde. Mars was in Cancer then too, having made an opposition to Uranus (and Neptune) the previous month.
Since the market had such high expectations the Fed would announce QE3 at the meeting, I thought that Mars squaring Uranus together with all the other influences would give the market something unexpected – no action. That’s why I didn’t write anything beyond commenting in the Mercury retrograde post that the market shouldn’t expect Bernanke to announce QE3 at Jackson Hole on August 26. The only thing that appeared more plausible under these influences was if the Fed revived and updated the twist. (“Operation Twist” was named after the dance craze made famous by Chubby Checker in the song “The Twist.” )
Announced by JFK February 2, 1961 (six months before President Obama was born), Operation Twist sought to lower long term interest rates while keeping short term interest rates unchanged to stimulate the economy which was in a recession. (It didn’t work then either.) Venus was in Aries and Mars was in Cancer and OOB like now as both planets impacted the Fed’s natal Sun/Pluto/Midheaven then. (The Fed was experiencing a Jupiter return then which reflected intervention due to foreign exchange rate discrepancy.)
With Mercury retrograde
The Fed needs to think outside the toolbox. Instead of buying bonds, Bernanke needs to buy bridges to lower unemployment and help grow the economy! The Fed would only be able to have to set up a lending facility to support the largest infrastructure projects such as interstate highway construction or the electrical grid. Even under the guise of monetary rather than fiscal policy, I am sure a policy would not be politically palatable.
As the USA experiences its Saturn return (and Bernanke starts to experience his Saturn return in November 2012), the market and the Fed must come to terms with the fact that monetary policy is unable to help the economy at this point in time.
(1)This also includes the Sun and Moon even though they are luminaries and not planets.
(2)As mentioned in my post on Mercury retrograde (see above link), declination represents the celestial latitude of a planet (including the luminaries) north or south of the celestial equator. Any planet moving past 23 degrees 27 minutes (north or south) of its declination is considered to be “out-of-bounds” (OOB) which brings out the most extreme and eccentric behavior of that planet’s energy. For example, Venus (money/banking) was OOB May 6 – June 8, 2010. Venus going OOB reflects the planetary energy acting “Uranus-like” at that time. The May 6 “flash crash” precipitated by the European sovereign debt crisis saw the market suddenly and shockingly break through the boundaries which led the SEC to first test a new circuit breaker system June 7 in response to the flash crash to keep trading within “acceptable” boundaries.
Note that Mercury was also retrograde at the time of the May 6 flash crash (until May 11, 2010). And just as Mars began being OOB in Mercury-ruled Gemini before entering Moon-ruled Cancer August 3, Venus was transiting Mercury-ruled Gemini until May 19 when Venus entered Moon-ruled Cancer until June 14, 2010. Clearly the examples of Venus and Mars OOB in Gemini (especially when Mercury is retrograde) and Cancer further accentuates their unpredictable and fluctuating nature when operating OOB.
(3) Fed-speak for stock market participants.
(4)The USA is a Jupiter-ruled nation since Sagittarius is the sign on the Ascendant of the USA chart. The Ascendant or first sector of the chart represents the nation’s physical appearance (physical terrain as well as its people) and outlook. Jupiter conjoining Venus as well as the Sun in Cancer in the USA chart describes a nation that is eternally optimistic and far too focused on the short term.
NOTE:
WallStreetWeather.net Forecast for Week Of August 8, 2011
Summary Of Last Week’s Influences:
Last week began with an agreement to raise the debt ceiling and cut spending, and ended with S&P downgrading the USA’s long-term credit rating Friday evening. (See my post, “Debt Deal and Debt Downgrade Highlights the USA’s Fiscal Imbalances at its Saturn Return”.)
In between these two “bookends,” the indices became extremely volatile, making moves not seen since the height of the financial crisis. By week’s end, the indices had fallen into corrective territory and are now negative for the year.
Mercury turning retrograde as it opposes Neptune signifies the “veil of illusion” is being lifted as the market begins wakes up to the fact that fiscal and monetary stimulus is limited as fears arise the global economy is slowing down.
Summary Of This Week’s Influences:
As indicated in last week’s Forecast, volatility continues to increase as Mars squares Uranus and opposes Pluto. As noted in the Summer Solstice forecast, the largest moves this week could occur on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday.
The Moon in the global sign Sagittarius Monday and Tuesday tends to draw Wall Street’s attention to events occurring overseas. Ruled by Jupiter, the Moon in Sagittarius exaggerates sentiment positively or negatively.
Mercury retrograde re-enters Leo and opposes Neptune in Aquarius Monday morning. (Mercury opposed Neptune for the first time July 29 when Mercury was in Virgo and Neptune was in Pisces.) The market’s direction is dependent upon how confident investors feel about the message being conveyed by leaders at this time. What is being communicated now can be confusing, unclear, or even untrue which does not help to boost confidence. The Mercury/Neptune opposition can increase contagion concerns as Neptune’s energies usually do not stay within the confines of set boundaries. These energies can signal currency reversals.
Mars in Cancer squaring Uranus in Aries Tuesday can increase the potential for sharp and sudden moves that break through support and resistance levels while Uranus indicates the potential for reversals. Geopolitically, this combination can increase the tendency for violent and rebellious uprisings, shootings, explosions, tribal warfare, and kidnapping. The potential for violent thunderstorms, hail storms, hurricanes, volcanic eruptions, and earthquakes is elevated now.
The Moon in Capricorn Wednesday and Thursday and Mars opposing Pluto keeps the focus on sovereign debt. Mars opposing Pluto raises the potential for power grabs and action involving nuclear issues. Although the energies described can reflect multiple intraday reversals, market sentiment is likely to reverse on Thursday. The Moon in Uranus-ruled Aquarius Friday keeps volatility elevated.
Monday, August 8, 2011
Negative.
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Negative conditions but strong reversal potential in the afternoon.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Negative.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Positive.
Friday, August 12, 2011
Choppy/mixed to negative.
Last week began with an agreement to raise the debt ceiling and cut spending, and ended with S&P downgrading the USA’s long-term credit rating Friday evening. (See my post, “Debt Deal and Debt Downgrade Highlights the USA’s Fiscal Imbalances at its Saturn Return”.)
In between these two “bookends,” the indices became extremely volatile, making moves not seen since the height of the financial crisis. By week’s end, the indices had fallen into corrective territory and are now negative for the year.
Mercury turning retrograde as it opposes Neptune signifies the “veil of illusion” is being lifted as the market begins wakes up to the fact that fiscal and monetary stimulus is limited as fears arise the global economy is slowing down.
Summary Of This Week’s Influences:
As indicated in last week’s Forecast, volatility continues to increase as Mars squares Uranus and opposes Pluto. As noted in the Summer Solstice forecast, the largest moves this week could occur on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday.
The Moon in the global sign Sagittarius Monday and Tuesday tends to draw Wall Street’s attention to events occurring overseas. Ruled by Jupiter, the Moon in Sagittarius exaggerates sentiment positively or negatively.
Mercury retrograde re-enters Leo and opposes Neptune in Aquarius Monday morning. (Mercury opposed Neptune for the first time July 29 when Mercury was in Virgo and Neptune was in Pisces.) The market’s direction is dependent upon how confident investors feel about the message being conveyed by leaders at this time. What is being communicated now can be confusing, unclear, or even untrue which does not help to boost confidence. The Mercury/Neptune opposition can increase contagion concerns as Neptune’s energies usually do not stay within the confines of set boundaries. These energies can signal currency reversals.
Mars in Cancer squaring Uranus in Aries Tuesday can increase the potential for sharp and sudden moves that break through support and resistance levels while Uranus indicates the potential for reversals. Geopolitically, this combination can increase the tendency for violent and rebellious uprisings, shootings, explosions, tribal warfare, and kidnapping. The potential for violent thunderstorms, hail storms, hurricanes, volcanic eruptions, and earthquakes is elevated now.
The Moon in Capricorn Wednesday and Thursday and Mars opposing Pluto keeps the focus on sovereign debt. Mars opposing Pluto raises the potential for power grabs and action involving nuclear issues. Although the energies described can reflect multiple intraday reversals, market sentiment is likely to reverse on Thursday. The Moon in Uranus-ruled Aquarius Friday keeps volatility elevated.
Monday, August 8, 2011
Negative.
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Negative conditions but strong reversal potential in the afternoon.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Negative.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Positive.
Friday, August 12, 2011
Choppy/mixed to negative.
Debt Deal and Debt Downgrade Highlights the USA’s Fiscal Imbalances at its Saturn Return
Published by WallStreetWeather.net
“The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America’s governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy. Despite this year’s wide-ranging debate, in our view, the differences between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily difficult to bridge, and, as we see it, the resulting agreement fell well short of the comprehensive fiscal consolidation program that some proponents have envisaged until quite recently.” – Standard & Poor’s rationale for downgrading the USA’s long-term credit rating from AAA to AA+, August 5, 2011
Contrary to descriptions in the financial and popular press, S&P is focusing on the long term viability of the political process. Shorter term Treasury bills and notes are remain top-rated.
Far from “removing the cloud of uncertainty” that President Obama proclaimed after Congress passed the Budget Control Act of 2011 on August 2, the debt deal’s two step process creates increased fiscal uncertainty which is contributing to turmoil in the markets and has resulted in the loss of the USA’s long term triple-A credit rating.
The agreement to raise the debt ceiling and gradually reduce the deficit by an estimated $2.1-$2.4 trillion over 10 years was far less than the $4 trillion “grand bargain” the President had sought. Despite Republicans insistence that the debt ceiling could not be raised unless accompanied by massive spending cuts, House Speaker John Boehner said “I got 98% of what I wanted.”
Even though the Budget Control Act was the first major bipartisan piece of legislation passed by Congress, S&P is right to recognize that “the difficulty in framing a consensus on fiscal policy weakens the government’s ability to manage public finances and diverts attention from the debate over how to achieve more balanced and dynamic economic growth in an era of fiscal stringency and private-sector deleveraging.”
Pluto rules debt, taxes/subsidies, and entitlement spending. Since Pluto entered Capricorn in 2008, the world is experiencing a massive debt deleveraging during Pluto’s sojourn in Saturn’s sign until 2024. Capricorn is ruled by Saturn. These energies rule structural and long term issues. Saturn and Capricorn describe economic conditions that range from contracting to stagnant, to slow and steady growth.
Since Capricorn and Saturn rule government, big business, and the plutocrats, global governments’ initial response to the financial crisis has been to implement policies that have largely benefitted corporate interests and the nation’s most wealthy and powerful. Spending on stimulus measures intended to quickly juice the economy together with government taking on private debt piled onto an already sizeable mountain of sovereign debt has increased the urgency to implement austerity measures that if too harsh, threaten to reverse the tepid recovery.
Challenging transits by Saturn indicate limitations and the need to work within the boundaries of existing structures to implement change from the ground up. Naming the legislation the Budget Control Act reflects Washington’s hope that the deficit can be contained within the boundaries of Saturn’s giant rings. As the ruler of time, Saturn describes how the past reflects the present. Short term solutions do not work with Saturn; one must be prepared to dig in for the long haul.
Saturn in Libra (October 2009-October 2012) represents the limits of fiscal and monetary policy to stimulate economic growth unless policies address structural imbalances and are targeted to achieving long term growth. Building a solid and secure economic foundation takes time and effort but can reap tangible benefits. The problem is that the political cycle demands quick results; no politician wants to be voted out of office only to see their successor reap the rewards of their labor.
Saturn in Libra is a time when government can no longer delay making some very difficult decisions and adjustments which will affect the nation for many years to come. Ruled by Venus the planetary energy of love and money, Libra values civility and seeks to create balance by striving to bridge the gap between two parties. Yet since Saturn entered Libra, the relationship between the two political parties has been more frigid and discordant than ever.
Saturn describes what we fear and the lessons we must learn. Saturn returns to its natal position every 29.5 years, serving as a “reality check.” The Saturn return is a time of being held accountable for one’s actions as Saturn operates on the “as you sow so shall you reap” principle. And Saturn in Libra is the ultimate arbiter of karmic justice. Born with the Sun (self identity) in Cancer in a challenging alignment to Saturn in Libra, the USA is experiencing its Saturn return this month (exact August 28).
The USA’s previous Saturn return occurred on October 22, 1981. This was a time of high unemployment, a depressed housing market, tight credit and record high interest rates. But this is the first time since its founding that the U.S. has experienced a Saturn return under such an enormous mountain of public and private debt. Since its last Saturn return, the USA’s transition from a manufacturing to a consumer-based economy dependent on financial alchemy and wealth creation through boosting asset prices has generated frequent booms and busts. The recovery from the real estate bubble will be long and arduous since real estate is the primary form of collateral in consumer and small business lending. This loss of collateral will prevent businesses from expanding and consumers from making major purchases until their balance sheets are repaired. Unlike large businesses that can borrow based upon their revenues and credit, small businesses and consumers can only borrow based on collateral. It is not until small business and consumers repair their balance sheets that the economy will once again become an engine of job growth. This time is really different!
And what’s really different this time as the USA undergoes its eighth Saturn return is that Uranus in Aries and Pluto in Capricorn are closely squaring each other now before they exactly square each other 7 times between June 2012 and March 2015. At the same time Uranus and Pluto square off, both planets are making challenging alignments to the USA’s natal Venus and Jupiter in Cancer. Uranus describes shocks and unexpected events, and extreme conditions and behavior. Uranus in Aries signifies the need to implement a bold and new plan; Pluto in Capricorn indicates that nothing short of a massive transformation of the nation’s economic and societal structures will do.
The USA Saturn return reflects that maintaining the fiscal status quo is not sustainable as the Treasury is not taking in enough revenue to pay its obligations which cannot be done solely on cuts in discretionary spending or raising more tax revenue. The energies of Saturn, Uranus, and Pluto indicate that nothing short of a radical transformation of the military, the tax code, and Medicare and Medicaid costs must take place to shore up the nation’s finances. As painful as this may be (for the status quo anyway), inaction is likely to bring more severe shocks that will be even more difficult to recover from. The more the public gets financially squeezed, the more likely rebellion and revolution will arrive on the streets of America.
“Our opinion is that elected officials remain wary of tackling the structural issues required to effectively address the rising U.S. public debt burden in a manner consistent with a ‘AAA’ rating and with ‘AAA’ rated sovereign peers.” – S&P
The USA’s Saturn return reflects the reputational fallout and diminished status from failing to deal with the nation’s fiscal situation in a civilized and mature manner. Saturn and Capricorn represent the pinnacle of achievement. What S&P is saying here is that countries with triple-A credit ratings do not behave like this, and certainly not the U.S. who considers itself to be the #1 superpower and the leader of the free world!
And it’s not as if Saturn/S&P didn’t give Washington ample opportunity to get their act together as Saturn has already made two test runs that showcased Washington’s failure to agree to anything of substance.
The USA’s first Saturn return occurred on December 3, 2010. That was the day President Obama’s bipartisan National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform (how Saturn sounding is that!) voted 11-7 in favor of the recommendations in its report, short of the 14 votes needed for their recommendations to be voted on by Congress. (The energies of Uranus and Pluto were accentuated then as Uranus turned stationary direct from Earth’s vantage point and the Moon was in Pluto-ruled Scorpio.) Instead of raising revenue, President Obama agreed to the Republicans demands to extend the Bush tax cuts until the end of 2012 in exchange for employee payroll tax cuts until the end of 2011.
As I described in “S&P Downgrades U.S. Outlook to Negative For Not Learning Saturn’s Lessons,” around the time when the USA experienced its second Saturn return (due to Saturn being retrograde) on March 22, Washington had narrowly averted a government shutdown over passing the current fiscal year budget.
As the planetary ruler of communication, Mercury represents legislation and ratings agency analysis. S&P downgraded the USA’s long term credit rating to Negative April 18 when Mercury was retrograde. Mercury is retrograde once again when S&P issued the downgrade on August 5 it had originally warned about back in January.
As described in the post above and many others, the USA was born with Mercury retrograde in Cancer in the sector of the USA chart represented by Pluto. The USA’s natal Mercury opposes Pluto in Capricorn in the sector representing the nation’s wealth. This is why during Mercury retrograde periods that Washington has a penchant for passing legislation related to Pluto-ruled issues such as debt/deficits, taxes/subsidies, entitlements.
With his progressed Sun, Mercury, and Mars in Libra, President Obama asserted that reducing the deficit must be done with a “balanced approach.” Reflecting Mercury’s dualistic nature and that the legislation was signed by the President August 2 as Mercury stationed retrograde with Mars in the final degree of Mercury-ruled Gemini, the Budget Control Act is a multi-step process. Mercury’s opposition to Neptune in Pisces reflects that the legislation could turn out much different than what it appears to be. This is reinforced by the Moon (sentiment) Void-of-Course in Mercury-ruled Virgo, an indication that the legislation is unlikely to turn out as expected. Speaker Boehner might end up regretting his remark that he got 98% of what he wanted.
Market sentiment sensed that rather than providing the clarity the President claims, the legislation is creating more uncertainty (Uranus) as half of the legislation has yet to be resolved! Although the debt ceiling will not need to be raised until 2013 and the legislation authorizes $917 billion in spending cuts over 10 years beginning in 2013 (with $350 billion coming from defense spending), the additional $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction will be left to the new “Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction.” The committee will be comprised of 6 Democrats and 6 Republicans (3 from each party and house) selected by the party leaders by August 16.
The Committee must hold their first meeting by September 16. (Pluto’s energy is extra powerful then as it stations direct while the Moon in Venus-ruled Taurus on a Venus-ruled day emphasizes increasing revenue through closing tax loopholes and subsidies.) The legislation requires the Committee to vote on their recommendations by November 23 (when the Moon is in Pluto-ruled Scorpio) which is the day before Thanksgiving and the start of the next Mercury retrograde! The committee must issue their report to Congress by December 2, and Congress must hold a straight up or down vote by December 23 on the committee’s recommendations. What has Wall Street and corporate America worried is that the debate over where the additional $1.5 trillion in cuts will come from will take place between Thanksgiving and Christmas!
If the committee fails to make recommendations or Congress rejects them, “triggers” will be activated dividing the $1.5 trillion equally between cuts in defense and non-defense programs. (Under this scenario, everything would be on the table except for Social Security, Medicaid, and unemployment benefits. Medicare benefits would not be cut, but cuts to providers would be.) The Bush tax cuts would expire January 1, 2013 – the same day the triggers or the committee’s approved recommendations will begin to go into effect.
Additionally, Congress still has to vote on approving the federal budget for the new fiscal year that begins October 1. And Congress has between September 30 and December 31 to vote on a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution. We have yet to be told how powerful the balanced budget amendment will be and what loopholes will be provided to skirt its provisions.
I have previously remarked that budgetary constraints could be the quickest way to curtail America’s addiction to war and maintaining its dominant military presence around the globe. As Saturn returns to its natal position in the USA chart as Mars in Cancer squares Saturn, the public is unlikely now to be willing to sacrifice their basic security needs to pour more money into defense spending. Perhaps the public has finally reached the point where “butter” triumphs over “guns” in the age old spending argument.
Another factor pointing to America’s massive military deleveraging is Saturn in Libra conjoining the USA’s progressed Mars on September 30 at the same time the USA progressed Ascendant (the nation’s outlook) moves from imperialistic Leo to budget conscious Virgo until 2047. Combined with Saturn’s need for restructuring, Uranus’ shocks that initiate new innovations in manufacturing and technology, combined with Pluto’s push for death and economic rebirth, America is moving back to making things as it innovates new technologies and breakthroughs. Much of the military spending will need to be diverted to worker retraining and building/repairing the nation’s neglected infrastructure.
S&P notes America’s graying population reflected by Pluto in Capricorn (the elderly) which increases government entitlement payouts. Yet politicians and S&P are concealing the facts (Uranus square Pluto; Mercury opposite Neptune) by convincing people that Social Security benefits must be cut when the fact is Congress has been stealing from the trust fund since LBJ began poaching it to fund the Vietnam War!
The only way to raise enough revenue without raising tax rates is to radically overhaul the tax code (Uranus/Pluto) in a completely fair and equitable way (Saturn in Libra) by completely eliminating ALL loopholes, corporate and individual tax deductions. Consider this: every tax deduction, subsidy and loophole for one individual or company amounts to a tax increase for everyone else! Saturn will be in Scorpio on January 1, 2013 when the deficit cuts must begin to be implemented. Saturn in Pluto-ruled Scorpio and Pluto in Saturn-ruled Capricorn (called “mutual reception” as the planets are transiting in each other’s signs), indicates that such a radical tax overhaul undertaken now is likely to quickly reap rewards.
S&P cited AAA sovereigns Canada, France, Germany, and the U.K. as America’s “relevant peers,” noting that “in contrast with the U.S., we project that the net public debt burdens of these other sovereigns will begin to decline, either before or by 2015.” (Which just so happens to be when the 7 time frictional square between Uranus and Pluto ends.)
What’s sooo interesting about S&P’s remark is that each one of America’s “relevant peers” provides its citizens with universal healthcare and yet is projected to reduce their level of public debt! Unlike the wars, Medicare Part D, and the Bush tax cuts, the Affordable Care Act has been “paid for.” Yet the U.S. could reap far greater cost savings if it wasn’t paying almost 15% above traditional Medicare for Medicare Advantage (which provides a hefty chunk of Humana’s profits in particular), and cut out the “middle men” (i.e. health insurance companies) altogether. The irony is that Republicans claim to want spending cuts, but won’t allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices. And they are trying their hardest to eliminate the medical commission established under the healthcare law that will determine the most cost effective treatments.
As Uranus and Pluto square off with each other while simultaneously impacting the USA’s natal Sun and Saturn in the spring of 2014, the U.S. can be on the way to transforming its reputation anew. A tax overhaul, shoring up infrastructure, and improving the health and wellbeing of the nation’s general welfare would truly revitalize the economy and make the U.S. a very attractive place for foreign investment. But if no progress is made by then, the U.S. could be even further behind its relevant peers than S&P’s projected downside scenario.
Mercury retrograde in Virgo opposing Neptune in Pisces describes the dispute between the Treasury’s mathematical calculations and S&P’s. But even if S&P’s numbers are too pessimistic, the point is that in donning the costume of Saturn the grim reaper, S&P is warning that Washington must start the structural changes now as it will take at least a decade of diligence before the U.S. can hope to regain the former status of its triple-A credit rating. Which means S&P might not restore the triple A-rating until 2021-2022 when Pluto in Capricorn opposes the USA’s natal Mercury in Cancer prior to the USA’s Pluto return for the first time in the nation’s history.
“The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America’s governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy. Despite this year’s wide-ranging debate, in our view, the differences between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily difficult to bridge, and, as we see it, the resulting agreement fell well short of the comprehensive fiscal consolidation program that some proponents have envisaged until quite recently.” – Standard & Poor’s rationale for downgrading the USA’s long-term credit rating from AAA to AA+, August 5, 2011
Contrary to descriptions in the financial and popular press, S&P is focusing on the long term viability of the political process. Shorter term Treasury bills and notes are remain top-rated.
Far from “removing the cloud of uncertainty” that President Obama proclaimed after Congress passed the Budget Control Act of 2011 on August 2, the debt deal’s two step process creates increased fiscal uncertainty which is contributing to turmoil in the markets and has resulted in the loss of the USA’s long term triple-A credit rating.
The agreement to raise the debt ceiling and gradually reduce the deficit by an estimated $2.1-$2.4 trillion over 10 years was far less than the $4 trillion “grand bargain” the President had sought. Despite Republicans insistence that the debt ceiling could not be raised unless accompanied by massive spending cuts, House Speaker John Boehner said “I got 98% of what I wanted.”
Even though the Budget Control Act was the first major bipartisan piece of legislation passed by Congress, S&P is right to recognize that “the difficulty in framing a consensus on fiscal policy weakens the government’s ability to manage public finances and diverts attention from the debate over how to achieve more balanced and dynamic economic growth in an era of fiscal stringency and private-sector deleveraging.”
Pluto rules debt, taxes/subsidies, and entitlement spending. Since Pluto entered Capricorn in 2008, the world is experiencing a massive debt deleveraging during Pluto’s sojourn in Saturn’s sign until 2024. Capricorn is ruled by Saturn. These energies rule structural and long term issues. Saturn and Capricorn describe economic conditions that range from contracting to stagnant, to slow and steady growth.
Since Capricorn and Saturn rule government, big business, and the plutocrats, global governments’ initial response to the financial crisis has been to implement policies that have largely benefitted corporate interests and the nation’s most wealthy and powerful. Spending on stimulus measures intended to quickly juice the economy together with government taking on private debt piled onto an already sizeable mountain of sovereign debt has increased the urgency to implement austerity measures that if too harsh, threaten to reverse the tepid recovery.
Challenging transits by Saturn indicate limitations and the need to work within the boundaries of existing structures to implement change from the ground up. Naming the legislation the Budget Control Act reflects Washington’s hope that the deficit can be contained within the boundaries of Saturn’s giant rings. As the ruler of time, Saturn describes how the past reflects the present. Short term solutions do not work with Saturn; one must be prepared to dig in for the long haul.
Saturn in Libra (October 2009-October 2012) represents the limits of fiscal and monetary policy to stimulate economic growth unless policies address structural imbalances and are targeted to achieving long term growth. Building a solid and secure economic foundation takes time and effort but can reap tangible benefits. The problem is that the political cycle demands quick results; no politician wants to be voted out of office only to see their successor reap the rewards of their labor.
Saturn in Libra is a time when government can no longer delay making some very difficult decisions and adjustments which will affect the nation for many years to come. Ruled by Venus the planetary energy of love and money, Libra values civility and seeks to create balance by striving to bridge the gap between two parties. Yet since Saturn entered Libra, the relationship between the two political parties has been more frigid and discordant than ever.
Saturn describes what we fear and the lessons we must learn. Saturn returns to its natal position every 29.5 years, serving as a “reality check.” The Saturn return is a time of being held accountable for one’s actions as Saturn operates on the “as you sow so shall you reap” principle. And Saturn in Libra is the ultimate arbiter of karmic justice. Born with the Sun (self identity) in Cancer in a challenging alignment to Saturn in Libra, the USA is experiencing its Saturn return this month (exact August 28).
The USA’s previous Saturn return occurred on October 22, 1981. This was a time of high unemployment, a depressed housing market, tight credit and record high interest rates. But this is the first time since its founding that the U.S. has experienced a Saturn return under such an enormous mountain of public and private debt. Since its last Saturn return, the USA’s transition from a manufacturing to a consumer-based economy dependent on financial alchemy and wealth creation through boosting asset prices has generated frequent booms and busts. The recovery from the real estate bubble will be long and arduous since real estate is the primary form of collateral in consumer and small business lending. This loss of collateral will prevent businesses from expanding and consumers from making major purchases until their balance sheets are repaired. Unlike large businesses that can borrow based upon their revenues and credit, small businesses and consumers can only borrow based on collateral. It is not until small business and consumers repair their balance sheets that the economy will once again become an engine of job growth. This time is really different!
And what’s really different this time as the USA undergoes its eighth Saturn return is that Uranus in Aries and Pluto in Capricorn are closely squaring each other now before they exactly square each other 7 times between June 2012 and March 2015. At the same time Uranus and Pluto square off, both planets are making challenging alignments to the USA’s natal Venus and Jupiter in Cancer. Uranus describes shocks and unexpected events, and extreme conditions and behavior. Uranus in Aries signifies the need to implement a bold and new plan; Pluto in Capricorn indicates that nothing short of a massive transformation of the nation’s economic and societal structures will do.
The USA Saturn return reflects that maintaining the fiscal status quo is not sustainable as the Treasury is not taking in enough revenue to pay its obligations which cannot be done solely on cuts in discretionary spending or raising more tax revenue. The energies of Saturn, Uranus, and Pluto indicate that nothing short of a radical transformation of the military, the tax code, and Medicare and Medicaid costs must take place to shore up the nation’s finances. As painful as this may be (for the status quo anyway), inaction is likely to bring more severe shocks that will be even more difficult to recover from. The more the public gets financially squeezed, the more likely rebellion and revolution will arrive on the streets of America.
“Our opinion is that elected officials remain wary of tackling the structural issues required to effectively address the rising U.S. public debt burden in a manner consistent with a ‘AAA’ rating and with ‘AAA’ rated sovereign peers.” – S&P
The USA’s Saturn return reflects the reputational fallout and diminished status from failing to deal with the nation’s fiscal situation in a civilized and mature manner. Saturn and Capricorn represent the pinnacle of achievement. What S&P is saying here is that countries with triple-A credit ratings do not behave like this, and certainly not the U.S. who considers itself to be the #1 superpower and the leader of the free world!
And it’s not as if Saturn/S&P didn’t give Washington ample opportunity to get their act together as Saturn has already made two test runs that showcased Washington’s failure to agree to anything of substance.
The USA’s first Saturn return occurred on December 3, 2010. That was the day President Obama’s bipartisan National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform (how Saturn sounding is that!) voted 11-7 in favor of the recommendations in its report, short of the 14 votes needed for their recommendations to be voted on by Congress. (The energies of Uranus and Pluto were accentuated then as Uranus turned stationary direct from Earth’s vantage point and the Moon was in Pluto-ruled Scorpio.) Instead of raising revenue, President Obama agreed to the Republicans demands to extend the Bush tax cuts until the end of 2012 in exchange for employee payroll tax cuts until the end of 2011.
As I described in “S&P Downgrades U.S. Outlook to Negative For Not Learning Saturn’s Lessons,” around the time when the USA experienced its second Saturn return (due to Saturn being retrograde) on March 22, Washington had narrowly averted a government shutdown over passing the current fiscal year budget.
As the planetary ruler of communication, Mercury represents legislation and ratings agency analysis. S&P downgraded the USA’s long term credit rating to Negative April 18 when Mercury was retrograde. Mercury is retrograde once again when S&P issued the downgrade on August 5 it had originally warned about back in January.
As described in the post above and many others, the USA was born with Mercury retrograde in Cancer in the sector of the USA chart represented by Pluto. The USA’s natal Mercury opposes Pluto in Capricorn in the sector representing the nation’s wealth. This is why during Mercury retrograde periods that Washington has a penchant for passing legislation related to Pluto-ruled issues such as debt/deficits, taxes/subsidies, entitlements.
With his progressed Sun, Mercury, and Mars in Libra, President Obama asserted that reducing the deficit must be done with a “balanced approach.” Reflecting Mercury’s dualistic nature and that the legislation was signed by the President August 2 as Mercury stationed retrograde with Mars in the final degree of Mercury-ruled Gemini, the Budget Control Act is a multi-step process. Mercury’s opposition to Neptune in Pisces reflects that the legislation could turn out much different than what it appears to be. This is reinforced by the Moon (sentiment) Void-of-Course in Mercury-ruled Virgo, an indication that the legislation is unlikely to turn out as expected. Speaker Boehner might end up regretting his remark that he got 98% of what he wanted.
Market sentiment sensed that rather than providing the clarity the President claims, the legislation is creating more uncertainty (Uranus) as half of the legislation has yet to be resolved! Although the debt ceiling will not need to be raised until 2013 and the legislation authorizes $917 billion in spending cuts over 10 years beginning in 2013 (with $350 billion coming from defense spending), the additional $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction will be left to the new “Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction.” The committee will be comprised of 6 Democrats and 6 Republicans (3 from each party and house) selected by the party leaders by August 16.
The Committee must hold their first meeting by September 16. (Pluto’s energy is extra powerful then as it stations direct while the Moon in Venus-ruled Taurus on a Venus-ruled day emphasizes increasing revenue through closing tax loopholes and subsidies.) The legislation requires the Committee to vote on their recommendations by November 23 (when the Moon is in Pluto-ruled Scorpio) which is the day before Thanksgiving and the start of the next Mercury retrograde! The committee must issue their report to Congress by December 2, and Congress must hold a straight up or down vote by December 23 on the committee’s recommendations. What has Wall Street and corporate America worried is that the debate over where the additional $1.5 trillion in cuts will come from will take place between Thanksgiving and Christmas!
If the committee fails to make recommendations or Congress rejects them, “triggers” will be activated dividing the $1.5 trillion equally between cuts in defense and non-defense programs. (Under this scenario, everything would be on the table except for Social Security, Medicaid, and unemployment benefits. Medicare benefits would not be cut, but cuts to providers would be.) The Bush tax cuts would expire January 1, 2013 – the same day the triggers or the committee’s approved recommendations will begin to go into effect.
Additionally, Congress still has to vote on approving the federal budget for the new fiscal year that begins October 1. And Congress has between September 30 and December 31 to vote on a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution. We have yet to be told how powerful the balanced budget amendment will be and what loopholes will be provided to skirt its provisions.
I have previously remarked that budgetary constraints could be the quickest way to curtail America’s addiction to war and maintaining its dominant military presence around the globe. As Saturn returns to its natal position in the USA chart as Mars in Cancer squares Saturn, the public is unlikely now to be willing to sacrifice their basic security needs to pour more money into defense spending. Perhaps the public has finally reached the point where “butter” triumphs over “guns” in the age old spending argument.
Another factor pointing to America’s massive military deleveraging is Saturn in Libra conjoining the USA’s progressed Mars on September 30 at the same time the USA progressed Ascendant (the nation’s outlook) moves from imperialistic Leo to budget conscious Virgo until 2047. Combined with Saturn’s need for restructuring, Uranus’ shocks that initiate new innovations in manufacturing and technology, combined with Pluto’s push for death and economic rebirth, America is moving back to making things as it innovates new technologies and breakthroughs. Much of the military spending will need to be diverted to worker retraining and building/repairing the nation’s neglected infrastructure.
S&P notes America’s graying population reflected by Pluto in Capricorn (the elderly) which increases government entitlement payouts. Yet politicians and S&P are concealing the facts (Uranus square Pluto; Mercury opposite Neptune) by convincing people that Social Security benefits must be cut when the fact is Congress has been stealing from the trust fund since LBJ began poaching it to fund the Vietnam War!
The only way to raise enough revenue without raising tax rates is to radically overhaul the tax code (Uranus/Pluto) in a completely fair and equitable way (Saturn in Libra) by completely eliminating ALL loopholes, corporate and individual tax deductions. Consider this: every tax deduction, subsidy and loophole for one individual or company amounts to a tax increase for everyone else! Saturn will be in Scorpio on January 1, 2013 when the deficit cuts must begin to be implemented. Saturn in Pluto-ruled Scorpio and Pluto in Saturn-ruled Capricorn (called “mutual reception” as the planets are transiting in each other’s signs), indicates that such a radical tax overhaul undertaken now is likely to quickly reap rewards.
S&P cited AAA sovereigns Canada, France, Germany, and the U.K. as America’s “relevant peers,” noting that “in contrast with the U.S., we project that the net public debt burdens of these other sovereigns will begin to decline, either before or by 2015.” (Which just so happens to be when the 7 time frictional square between Uranus and Pluto ends.)
What’s sooo interesting about S&P’s remark is that each one of America’s “relevant peers” provides its citizens with universal healthcare and yet is projected to reduce their level of public debt! Unlike the wars, Medicare Part D, and the Bush tax cuts, the Affordable Care Act has been “paid for.” Yet the U.S. could reap far greater cost savings if it wasn’t paying almost 15% above traditional Medicare for Medicare Advantage (which provides a hefty chunk of Humana’s profits in particular), and cut out the “middle men” (i.e. health insurance companies) altogether. The irony is that Republicans claim to want spending cuts, but won’t allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices. And they are trying their hardest to eliminate the medical commission established under the healthcare law that will determine the most cost effective treatments.
As Uranus and Pluto square off with each other while simultaneously impacting the USA’s natal Sun and Saturn in the spring of 2014, the U.S. can be on the way to transforming its reputation anew. A tax overhaul, shoring up infrastructure, and improving the health and wellbeing of the nation’s general welfare would truly revitalize the economy and make the U.S. a very attractive place for foreign investment. But if no progress is made by then, the U.S. could be even further behind its relevant peers than S&P’s projected downside scenario.
Mercury retrograde in Virgo opposing Neptune in Pisces describes the dispute between the Treasury’s mathematical calculations and S&P’s. But even if S&P’s numbers are too pessimistic, the point is that in donning the costume of Saturn the grim reaper, S&P is warning that Washington must start the structural changes now as it will take at least a decade of diligence before the U.S. can hope to regain the former status of its triple-A credit rating. Which means S&P might not restore the triple A-rating until 2021-2022 when Pluto in Capricorn opposes the USA’s natal Mercury in Cancer prior to the USA’s Pluto return for the first time in the nation’s history.
WallStreetWeather.net Forecast For Week Of August 1, 2011
Summary Of Last Week’s Influences:
Last week the Dow experienced its biggest decline since the week ending May 7, 2010 as the market began to become seriously concerned that Washington would fail to increase the debt ceiling by the August 2 deadline. This was coupled by concerns the economy is weakening after second quarter GDP came in at 1.3% and Q1 GDP was revised down to 0.4%. Lower than expected weekly jobless claims were not strong enough to offset the weak reading for durable goods orders. And with Core PCE on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, the Federal Reserve cannot afford to stoke more inflation in a stagnant wage environment.
Summary Of This Week’s Influences:
As described in last week’s Forecast, the Sun in its home sign Leo can increase confidence and risk taking. The New Moon in Leo Saturday conjoining Venus in Leo and squaring Jupiter in Venus-ruled Taurus reflects that fiscal matters are the central focus during the next month.
The Sun squaring Jupiter is more likely to increase the motivation to take risks. Although Jupiter tends to exaggerate everything positively or negatively in a big way, this influence is more likely to bring over optimism and high expectations that leaders (Sun) are acting in ways expected to expand (Jupiter) and grow the economy.
The Moon (sentiment) moves into Mercury-ruled Virgo at 4:42 AM Monday until 6:04 AM Wednesday. The Moon in this sign is less interested in hype and more concerned with facts and figures.
When the market opens Wednesday, Mercury will have turned retrograde until August 26 as Mars moves into Cancer until September 18. Mars represents action and does not express its energies as well in the sign ruled by the ever fluctuating Moon. Mars conjoining the Summer Solstice Sun and the Fed’s natal Pluto while opposing its Sun in Capricorn, can indicate action taken by the Fed and particularly its Chairman that brings more transparency regarding the Fed’s operations. (In the event of a government shutdown over the debt ceiling, it also can represent the Fed taking action to ensure liquidity is adequate.)
These changes together with the Moon shifting into Venus-ruled Libra until Friday at 7:58 AM increase the likelihood that the market will reverse direction Wednesday. The Moon in Libra squaring Mars, opposing Uranus, and squaring Pluto taps into the energies building into next week when Mars squares Uranus (August 9) and opposes Pluto (August 11). Volatility is likely to increase as the market’s direction becomes less certain than it appeared to be at the start of the week.
The influence of Venus in Leo squaring Jupiter in Taurus late Thursday/early Friday is similar to the Sun/Jupiter influence earlier in the week. It can represent financial excess (spending exceeds income) and overpriced assets. The Moon in Scorpio could reflect the market coming around to believing that Treasuries are overpriced.
There could be an upside surprise to Friday’s employment report. While July’s nonfarm payrolls could be a bit better than the consensus estimate of 78,000, the prior month’s revision could be favorably revised upward due to a previous data or inputting error.
Monday, August 1, 2011
Positive; strongest in the morning.
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Positive trend bias.
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Reversal of previous trend; negative.
Thursday, August 4, 2011
Choppy to negative bias.
Friday, August 5, 2011
Strongest early but subject to an intraday reversal; mixed to positive close.
Last week the Dow experienced its biggest decline since the week ending May 7, 2010 as the market began to become seriously concerned that Washington would fail to increase the debt ceiling by the August 2 deadline. This was coupled by concerns the economy is weakening after second quarter GDP came in at 1.3% and Q1 GDP was revised down to 0.4%. Lower than expected weekly jobless claims were not strong enough to offset the weak reading for durable goods orders. And with Core PCE on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, the Federal Reserve cannot afford to stoke more inflation in a stagnant wage environment.
Summary Of This Week’s Influences:
As described in last week’s Forecast, the Sun in its home sign Leo can increase confidence and risk taking. The New Moon in Leo Saturday conjoining Venus in Leo and squaring Jupiter in Venus-ruled Taurus reflects that fiscal matters are the central focus during the next month.
The Sun squaring Jupiter is more likely to increase the motivation to take risks. Although Jupiter tends to exaggerate everything positively or negatively in a big way, this influence is more likely to bring over optimism and high expectations that leaders (Sun) are acting in ways expected to expand (Jupiter) and grow the economy.
The Moon (sentiment) moves into Mercury-ruled Virgo at 4:42 AM Monday until 6:04 AM Wednesday. The Moon in this sign is less interested in hype and more concerned with facts and figures.
When the market opens Wednesday, Mercury will have turned retrograde until August 26 as Mars moves into Cancer until September 18. Mars represents action and does not express its energies as well in the sign ruled by the ever fluctuating Moon. Mars conjoining the Summer Solstice Sun and the Fed’s natal Pluto while opposing its Sun in Capricorn, can indicate action taken by the Fed and particularly its Chairman that brings more transparency regarding the Fed’s operations. (In the event of a government shutdown over the debt ceiling, it also can represent the Fed taking action to ensure liquidity is adequate.)
These changes together with the Moon shifting into Venus-ruled Libra until Friday at 7:58 AM increase the likelihood that the market will reverse direction Wednesday. The Moon in Libra squaring Mars, opposing Uranus, and squaring Pluto taps into the energies building into next week when Mars squares Uranus (August 9) and opposes Pluto (August 11). Volatility is likely to increase as the market’s direction becomes less certain than it appeared to be at the start of the week.
The influence of Venus in Leo squaring Jupiter in Taurus late Thursday/early Friday is similar to the Sun/Jupiter influence earlier in the week. It can represent financial excess (spending exceeds income) and overpriced assets. The Moon in Scorpio could reflect the market coming around to believing that Treasuries are overpriced.
There could be an upside surprise to Friday’s employment report. While July’s nonfarm payrolls could be a bit better than the consensus estimate of 78,000, the prior month’s revision could be favorably revised upward due to a previous data or inputting error.
Monday, August 1, 2011
Positive; strongest in the morning.
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Positive trend bias.
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Reversal of previous trend; negative.
Thursday, August 4, 2011
Choppy to negative bias.
Friday, August 5, 2011
Strongest early but subject to an intraday reversal; mixed to positive close.
Mercury Retrograde August 2-26, 2011: Lifting the Veil of Illusion
Published by WallStreetWeather.net
On August 2, Mercury the planetary energy of communication, movement, and commerce, will appear from Earth’s vantage point to move retrograde until August 26.
Mercury is a dualistic energy that when strong tends to bring multiple choices, situations, and events. Mercury is the trickster. Just when we think we’ve figured things out, Mercury slows down its speed and turns retrograde three to four times a year. Mercury traveling in reverse motion over the next 24 days revisits the same degree area of the zodiac Mercury traveled between July 18 and August 2. Conditions can arise during the retrograde period necessitating the need to rethink and review. Mercury retrograde is best suited for revisiting previous issues and resolving unfinished business rather than moving forward with completely new endeavors. The key is to maintain a flexible attitude and schedule.
Mercury the messenger is a multitasker. Reflecting its dualistic nature, Mercury conveys its message most effectively through the signs Gemini and Virgo. Gemini’s curious nature collects all kinds of information; Virgo sorts through all the details to dissect what is useful.
What is unique about this Mercury retrograde cycle is that both facets of Mercury are being expressed as Mercury stations retrograde. Mercury is movement and Mars is action. As Mercury turns retrograde at the beginning of Virgo, Mars will be at the end of Gemini.
It's essential to understand the energies in play leading up to August 2. Just as Mercury began to substantially slow down its speed, Mars in Gemini began operating out-of-bounds July 25 as the Moon (sentiment) was in Gemini.(1) Mars demands swift action while Mercury is trying to keep up with the latest information and a multitude of choices that is in constant flux.
Although Mercury entering Virgo (July 28 at 1:59 PM EDT) can strengthen the ability to sort through the avalanche of information, its opposition to Neptune in Pisces can make things seem even more confusing. Mercury opposite Neptune brings our full awareness to issues and situations that are not what they appear to be. Something is “fishy” about the “facts.” In the chart for Mercury entering Virgo set for Washington DC, Mercury in Virgo is in the sector representing the Obama Administration and rules the sectors of the chart representing debt, entitlements, taxes and subsidies, as well as the sector representing Congress.(2) It is up to President Obama to convey the facts as succinctly as possible to contrast the illusions of Neptune which resides in the sector representing the opposition.
Oppositions represent opposing yet complementary energies as they are in compatible elements and share the same mode of expression. Oppositions also tend to involve other people or symbolize other aspects of ourselves. Balance must be found since both energies need each other in order to be whole. For example, Virgo is physical health and Pisces is mental health. Wholistic healthcare recognizes that you cannot separate one from the other and truly be healthy. Both energies represent being of service: Virgo through employment; Pisces through selfless service (expressing compassion for others without expectations).
These energies are strengthened with Mercury in Virgo and Neptune in Pisces in their “home” signs. Here the practical earth element meets the emotionally sensitive water element. Visionary ideas and creative endeavors must be grounded in reality. As mutable signs, Virgo and Pisces represent the ability to adapt to changing conditions.
Uncovering the facts concealed behind the mask requires a two step approach that blends the best of both energies:
1. Do your own research and analysis, retreating from the endless stream of infotainment “breaking news” that masquerades as news reporting.
2. Time for quiet reflection allows intuition and inspiration to flow through.
Mercury opposing Neptune represents the “Full Moon” phase of the Mercury/Neptune cycle that began when the two planets aligned on February 20, 2011. Events that began around that time could reach a critical juncture during the next six weeks as due to Mercury retrograde, Mercury opposes Neptune three times: July 28/29, August 8, and September 8.
Mercury is the message which Neptune delivers wrapped up in the symbolism of dreams, myth and metaphor if we are willing to use our intuition to decode the message. Oppositions represent the need to make a choice. The origin of the word apocalypse means to “lift the veil” or to uncover. This is what the world and especially the USA is going to be doing during this Mercury retrograde.
The Moon at its closest distance to earth (perigee) and Void-of-Course (VOC) in Virgo as Mercury turns retrograde August 2 at 11:50 PM EDT can accentuate the snafus and surprises commonly experienced during Mercury retrograde.(3)
Communication systems are highly susceptible to outages and breakdowns, data is more prone to inaccuracies and revisions, and travel delays/cancellations can alter schedules. Reconfirming appointments and schedules, double checking all facts and figures, allowing extra time for accomplishing tasks and for travel, and having a copy of important data can make things easier. These energies can also generate a lot of nervous energy that can upset the digestive system. Eating simple (i.e. unprocessed) foods slowly in a relaxed environment can help.
Rather than starting something new and making major decisions and purchases, it is time to put the Re prefix in front of everything you do: reapply, reform, renegotiate, repair, revise, redo, reconnect, reinvent, retry, etc. Mercury retrograde in Virgo is a good time to get organized and complete all those outstanding odds and ends. If you’re looking for employment, reapply to companies that rejected you in the past. Reconnect with past contacts and previous clients. (August 4, 18, and 23 can be favorable for this.)
There are “twin” sides to the Mercury retrograde period. Circumstances and information can be revised and attitudes reversed during Mercury retrograde, while information and events that first occur during Mercury retrograde can be revised after Mercury turns direct. Individuals and entities born when Mercury is retrograde have the potential to navigate the cycle better and can be more motivated to take action during retrograde periods.
I have written several times that since the USA was born with natal Mercury retrograde in Moon-ruled Cancer opposing Pluto in Capricorn, Washington has developed a penchant to pass legislation when Mercury is retrograde relating to debt/deficits, taxes, subsidies and entitlement spending.
The last time Mercury was retrograde (March 30 – April 23), Democrats and Republicans narrowly averted a government shutdown over the current fiscal year budget with a little over an hour to spare.(4) A tax cut deal was reached during the Mercury retrograde before that (December 10-30, 2010).
Now as Mercury is about to turn retrograde, once again Washington is racing to reach agreement on raising the debt ceiling to avert a government shutdown. As I described in “S&P Downgrades U.S. Outlook to Negative For Not Learning Saturn’s Lessons,” what these time periods also have in common is that Saturn in Libra was exactly conjoining the USA’s natal Saturn. Known as the Saturn return, it represents a time that the USA is faced with making difficult decisions to get its fiscal house in order. Thus far Washington has chosen to delay making the difficult decisions because it requires a total transformation of the tax code so that everyone pays in proportion to their income. Now as the USA fully experiences its Saturn return (exact August 28), President Obama’s “balanced approach” of spending cuts and revenue enhancements for deficit reduction appears to have acquiesced to the pressure to maintain the status quo at the expense of the general welfare of the nation.
In this post and this post I described how the planetary energies now raise the potential for a government shutdown. I wrote that if a shutdown takes place, an agreement could be settled between August 6 and 12. Even if a government shutdown is averted, Mercury opposing Neptune raises the potential that at least one of the ratings agencies will downgrade the USA’s current AAA credit rating.(5)
Mars leaving Gemini for Cancer August 3 hours after Mercury turns retrograde indicates that people are more prone to express their anger if they feel their most basic security needs are not being met. Neptune which has been retrograde since June 3, backtracks into Aquarius August 4 (until February 3, 2012). Mercury returning to Leo August 8 and opposing Neptune a few hours later indicates that the public will reconsider and react to what has happened since Mercury conjoined Neptune (and Mars) in Aquarius on February 20. Aquarius is ruled by Uranus, the planetary energy of rebellion and revolution and Neptune dissolves boundaries and barriers. It was during that time that public uprisings to protest autocratic governments reverberated throughout the Middle East, northern Africa, and even China, together with protests to counter extreme (Aquarius/Uranus) legislation in Wisconsin and other states occurred. Mars squaring Uranus in Aries and opposing Pluto in Capricorn at this time indicates a resurgence of public protests around the world demanding government reforms.
Leo rules leaders and all forms of speculation such as the stock market. Mercury in Leo opposing Neptune in Aquarius could indicate that what is said by corporate and political leaders could reverse investors’ current beliefs. Certain asset price bubbles could begin to burst. This is especially true in the USA where Mercury turns retrograde in the sector ruling the stock market (in the chart set for Washington, DC). More news about insider trading, fraud, and scandals coupled with the ever changing storyline in Washington is primarily driving the market now. Keep in mind that it can be difficult at this time to distinguish fact from fiction.
I’ve written during previous Mercury retrograde periods that the stock market has a greater tendency to reverse its pattern leading up to the retrograde period as Mercury turns retrograde. If not then a reversal is most likely to occur August 8, or around the midpoint of the cycle when the Sun conjoins Mercury (and Venus) in Leo August 16. The Neptune influence does not help to create a clear trend which means Mercury could spin its wheels, ending up pretty much where it was when Mercury turned retrograde.
Even though the Sun in Leo and the Sun’s conjunction to Mercury and Venus in Leo August 16 can boost market confidence, Venus disappeared from the morning sky in mid-July. No matter what kind of reversals occur during Mercury retrograde, it is unlikely the three major indices will exceed their 3+ year highs made on May 2 this year.
Mercury turns direct August 26 with the Moon in Leo. Although I wrote that the Federal Reserve would probably temporarily intervene to ensure there is ample liquidity and probably lend or buy/sell Treasuries and mortgage securities if needed in the event of a government shutdown, the market should not expect Fed Chairman Bernanke to talk about doing QE3 at this year’s Jackson Hole conference that day.
Just in time for the holiday season, the next Mercury retrograde begins November 24 (Thanksgiving Day) to December 13. Occurring in the global sign of Sagittarius, snafus related to long distance travel. Geopolitical issues could take center stage now.
(1)Mars “out-of-bounds” July 25 – August 22 means that because Mars is operating well outside the boundary of the ecliptic (the path of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun), its energy is acting in extreme ways.
(2)Pluto is the ruler of the chart, signifying that the nation is focused on the debt ceiling. Pluto in Saturn-ruled Capricorn in the sector representing the nation’s revenue indicates that the Treasury’s ability to pay its bills and interest on the debt (Pluto) could be delayed if legislation (Mercury) is not passed in time (Capricorn/Saturn) to increase the debt limit (Capricorn/Saturn).
(3)Emotions tend to be closer to the surface when the Moon is perigee. The Moon is VOC when it has finished making any major relationships to the Sun or other planets before entering the next zodiac sign. These times are best for doing routine things where no specific outcome is needed. Dates when the Moon is VOC all day during Mercury retrograde: August 11, 15-16, 25.
(4) Agreement was reached at 10:54 PM EDT April 8. The Moon was in Gemini having just turned VOC at 10:24 PM. Reflecting the powerplays and dealmaking, the Sun was about to conjoin Mercury in Aries as Pluto in Capricorn turned retrograde.
(5)Neptune rules credit (“to believe”). Venus opposing Neptune August 21 and the Sun opposing Neptune the following day further emphasize that a credit rating downgrade could have the opposite effect on the world’s reserve currency to what people believe. At a minimum it would be a blow to the USA’s pride and dispel the illusion that some people have that this is the only nation in the world with a triple-A credit rating.
On August 2, Mercury the planetary energy of communication, movement, and commerce, will appear from Earth’s vantage point to move retrograde until August 26.
Mercury is a dualistic energy that when strong tends to bring multiple choices, situations, and events. Mercury is the trickster. Just when we think we’ve figured things out, Mercury slows down its speed and turns retrograde three to four times a year. Mercury traveling in reverse motion over the next 24 days revisits the same degree area of the zodiac Mercury traveled between July 18 and August 2. Conditions can arise during the retrograde period necessitating the need to rethink and review. Mercury retrograde is best suited for revisiting previous issues and resolving unfinished business rather than moving forward with completely new endeavors. The key is to maintain a flexible attitude and schedule.
Mercury the messenger is a multitasker. Reflecting its dualistic nature, Mercury conveys its message most effectively through the signs Gemini and Virgo. Gemini’s curious nature collects all kinds of information; Virgo sorts through all the details to dissect what is useful.
What is unique about this Mercury retrograde cycle is that both facets of Mercury are being expressed as Mercury stations retrograde. Mercury is movement and Mars is action. As Mercury turns retrograde at the beginning of Virgo, Mars will be at the end of Gemini.
It's essential to understand the energies in play leading up to August 2. Just as Mercury began to substantially slow down its speed, Mars in Gemini began operating out-of-bounds July 25 as the Moon (sentiment) was in Gemini.(1) Mars demands swift action while Mercury is trying to keep up with the latest information and a multitude of choices that is in constant flux.
Although Mercury entering Virgo (July 28 at 1:59 PM EDT) can strengthen the ability to sort through the avalanche of information, its opposition to Neptune in Pisces can make things seem even more confusing. Mercury opposite Neptune brings our full awareness to issues and situations that are not what they appear to be. Something is “fishy” about the “facts.” In the chart for Mercury entering Virgo set for Washington DC, Mercury in Virgo is in the sector representing the Obama Administration and rules the sectors of the chart representing debt, entitlements, taxes and subsidies, as well as the sector representing Congress.(2) It is up to President Obama to convey the facts as succinctly as possible to contrast the illusions of Neptune which resides in the sector representing the opposition.
Oppositions represent opposing yet complementary energies as they are in compatible elements and share the same mode of expression. Oppositions also tend to involve other people or symbolize other aspects of ourselves. Balance must be found since both energies need each other in order to be whole. For example, Virgo is physical health and Pisces is mental health. Wholistic healthcare recognizes that you cannot separate one from the other and truly be healthy. Both energies represent being of service: Virgo through employment; Pisces through selfless service (expressing compassion for others without expectations).
These energies are strengthened with Mercury in Virgo and Neptune in Pisces in their “home” signs. Here the practical earth element meets the emotionally sensitive water element. Visionary ideas and creative endeavors must be grounded in reality. As mutable signs, Virgo and Pisces represent the ability to adapt to changing conditions.
Uncovering the facts concealed behind the mask requires a two step approach that blends the best of both energies:
1. Do your own research and analysis, retreating from the endless stream of infotainment “breaking news” that masquerades as news reporting.
2. Time for quiet reflection allows intuition and inspiration to flow through.
Mercury opposing Neptune represents the “Full Moon” phase of the Mercury/Neptune cycle that began when the two planets aligned on February 20, 2011. Events that began around that time could reach a critical juncture during the next six weeks as due to Mercury retrograde, Mercury opposes Neptune three times: July 28/29, August 8, and September 8.
Mercury is the message which Neptune delivers wrapped up in the symbolism of dreams, myth and metaphor if we are willing to use our intuition to decode the message. Oppositions represent the need to make a choice. The origin of the word apocalypse means to “lift the veil” or to uncover. This is what the world and especially the USA is going to be doing during this Mercury retrograde.
The Moon at its closest distance to earth (perigee) and Void-of-Course (VOC) in Virgo as Mercury turns retrograde August 2 at 11:50 PM EDT can accentuate the snafus and surprises commonly experienced during Mercury retrograde.(3)
Communication systems are highly susceptible to outages and breakdowns, data is more prone to inaccuracies and revisions, and travel delays/cancellations can alter schedules. Reconfirming appointments and schedules, double checking all facts and figures, allowing extra time for accomplishing tasks and for travel, and having a copy of important data can make things easier. These energies can also generate a lot of nervous energy that can upset the digestive system. Eating simple (i.e. unprocessed) foods slowly in a relaxed environment can help.
Rather than starting something new and making major decisions and purchases, it is time to put the Re prefix in front of everything you do: reapply, reform, renegotiate, repair, revise, redo, reconnect, reinvent, retry, etc. Mercury retrograde in Virgo is a good time to get organized and complete all those outstanding odds and ends. If you’re looking for employment, reapply to companies that rejected you in the past. Reconnect with past contacts and previous clients. (August 4, 18, and 23 can be favorable for this.)
There are “twin” sides to the Mercury retrograde period. Circumstances and information can be revised and attitudes reversed during Mercury retrograde, while information and events that first occur during Mercury retrograde can be revised after Mercury turns direct. Individuals and entities born when Mercury is retrograde have the potential to navigate the cycle better and can be more motivated to take action during retrograde periods.
I have written several times that since the USA was born with natal Mercury retrograde in Moon-ruled Cancer opposing Pluto in Capricorn, Washington has developed a penchant to pass legislation when Mercury is retrograde relating to debt/deficits, taxes, subsidies and entitlement spending.
The last time Mercury was retrograde (March 30 – April 23), Democrats and Republicans narrowly averted a government shutdown over the current fiscal year budget with a little over an hour to spare.(4) A tax cut deal was reached during the Mercury retrograde before that (December 10-30, 2010).
Now as Mercury is about to turn retrograde, once again Washington is racing to reach agreement on raising the debt ceiling to avert a government shutdown. As I described in “S&P Downgrades U.S. Outlook to Negative For Not Learning Saturn’s Lessons,” what these time periods also have in common is that Saturn in Libra was exactly conjoining the USA’s natal Saturn. Known as the Saturn return, it represents a time that the USA is faced with making difficult decisions to get its fiscal house in order. Thus far Washington has chosen to delay making the difficult decisions because it requires a total transformation of the tax code so that everyone pays in proportion to their income. Now as the USA fully experiences its Saturn return (exact August 28), President Obama’s “balanced approach” of spending cuts and revenue enhancements for deficit reduction appears to have acquiesced to the pressure to maintain the status quo at the expense of the general welfare of the nation.
In this post and this post I described how the planetary energies now raise the potential for a government shutdown. I wrote that if a shutdown takes place, an agreement could be settled between August 6 and 12. Even if a government shutdown is averted, Mercury opposing Neptune raises the potential that at least one of the ratings agencies will downgrade the USA’s current AAA credit rating.(5)
Mars leaving Gemini for Cancer August 3 hours after Mercury turns retrograde indicates that people are more prone to express their anger if they feel their most basic security needs are not being met. Neptune which has been retrograde since June 3, backtracks into Aquarius August 4 (until February 3, 2012). Mercury returning to Leo August 8 and opposing Neptune a few hours later indicates that the public will reconsider and react to what has happened since Mercury conjoined Neptune (and Mars) in Aquarius on February 20. Aquarius is ruled by Uranus, the planetary energy of rebellion and revolution and Neptune dissolves boundaries and barriers. It was during that time that public uprisings to protest autocratic governments reverberated throughout the Middle East, northern Africa, and even China, together with protests to counter extreme (Aquarius/Uranus) legislation in Wisconsin and other states occurred. Mars squaring Uranus in Aries and opposing Pluto in Capricorn at this time indicates a resurgence of public protests around the world demanding government reforms.
Leo rules leaders and all forms of speculation such as the stock market. Mercury in Leo opposing Neptune in Aquarius could indicate that what is said by corporate and political leaders could reverse investors’ current beliefs. Certain asset price bubbles could begin to burst. This is especially true in the USA where Mercury turns retrograde in the sector ruling the stock market (in the chart set for Washington, DC). More news about insider trading, fraud, and scandals coupled with the ever changing storyline in Washington is primarily driving the market now. Keep in mind that it can be difficult at this time to distinguish fact from fiction.
I’ve written during previous Mercury retrograde periods that the stock market has a greater tendency to reverse its pattern leading up to the retrograde period as Mercury turns retrograde. If not then a reversal is most likely to occur August 8, or around the midpoint of the cycle when the Sun conjoins Mercury (and Venus) in Leo August 16. The Neptune influence does not help to create a clear trend which means Mercury could spin its wheels, ending up pretty much where it was when Mercury turned retrograde.
Even though the Sun in Leo and the Sun’s conjunction to Mercury and Venus in Leo August 16 can boost market confidence, Venus disappeared from the morning sky in mid-July. No matter what kind of reversals occur during Mercury retrograde, it is unlikely the three major indices will exceed their 3+ year highs made on May 2 this year.
Mercury turns direct August 26 with the Moon in Leo. Although I wrote that the Federal Reserve would probably temporarily intervene to ensure there is ample liquidity and probably lend or buy/sell Treasuries and mortgage securities if needed in the event of a government shutdown, the market should not expect Fed Chairman Bernanke to talk about doing QE3 at this year’s Jackson Hole conference that day.
Just in time for the holiday season, the next Mercury retrograde begins November 24 (Thanksgiving Day) to December 13. Occurring in the global sign of Sagittarius, snafus related to long distance travel. Geopolitical issues could take center stage now.
(1)Mars “out-of-bounds” July 25 – August 22 means that because Mars is operating well outside the boundary of the ecliptic (the path of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun), its energy is acting in extreme ways.
(2)Pluto is the ruler of the chart, signifying that the nation is focused on the debt ceiling. Pluto in Saturn-ruled Capricorn in the sector representing the nation’s revenue indicates that the Treasury’s ability to pay its bills and interest on the debt (Pluto) could be delayed if legislation (Mercury) is not passed in time (Capricorn/Saturn) to increase the debt limit (Capricorn/Saturn).
(3)Emotions tend to be closer to the surface when the Moon is perigee. The Moon is VOC when it has finished making any major relationships to the Sun or other planets before entering the next zodiac sign. These times are best for doing routine things where no specific outcome is needed. Dates when the Moon is VOC all day during Mercury retrograde: August 11, 15-16, 25.
(4) Agreement was reached at 10:54 PM EDT April 8. The Moon was in Gemini having just turned VOC at 10:24 PM. Reflecting the powerplays and dealmaking, the Sun was about to conjoin Mercury in Aries as Pluto in Capricorn turned retrograde.
(5)Neptune rules credit (“to believe”). Venus opposing Neptune August 21 and the Sun opposing Neptune the following day further emphasize that a credit rating downgrade could have the opposite effect on the world’s reserve currency to what people believe. At a minimum it would be a blow to the USA’s pride and dispel the illusion that some people have that this is the only nation in the world with a triple-A credit rating.
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