Summary Of Last Week’s Influences:
The major indices ended the week higher, hopeful that the European sovereign debt crisis was now under control and Washington would reach agreement to raise the debt ceiling before August 2.
Contagion fears over Europe took the market down Monday. The indices kept climbing Tuesday, experiencing their biggest one day point and percentage all year after IBM’s strong earnings and President Obama’s remarks that a deficit reduction proposal from the bipartisan “gang of six” Senators represented a “very significant step” in the debt ceiling talks. (Before Tuesday, the biggest one day gain this year occurred on March 3 when the Moon was also in Pisces.) Wednesday was time to worry about the dueling debt issues facing the U.S. and the Eurozone.
As Mars in Gemini conjoined the USA natal Mars and squared the USA Neptune in Virgo, investors rushed back into the market again after European leaders announced they agreed to (but had not worked out the details) for a new 3 year 109 billion Euros loan for Greece at 3.5% interest. (Loans to Ireland and Portugal were also reduced to 3.5%.) The deal would force private creditors of Greek debt to take haircuts by exchanging their bonds for lower rated ones for longer maturities. Should the haircut trigger a ratings agency downgrade, the Eurozone will guarantee the debt to ensure it is still accepted as collateral by the ECB.
Since Gemini and Virgo are ruled by dualistic Mercury (news) and Neptune represents rumors that can be masquerading as news, the secondary factor driving Thursday’s market was a New York Times report that President Obama and House Speaker Boehner were close to a “major deal” on the debt ceiling.
House Republicans passed “cut, cap, and balance” Tuesday along party lines while Democrats defeated the measure in the Senate Friday. By early Friday evening it was evident that my catchphrase “cut, crap, and copout” more accurately sums up the entire debt debate. Neither party can agree on what to cut, the idea of a balanced budget amendment is a load of crap because the debt ceiling being reached connotes you would have to have a balanced budget going forward from here. Obviously this is unattainable which is why it is a copout. If both parties fail to reach agreement, it becomes more likely they will copout and pass a “clean” bill that raises the debt ceiling without any deficit reduction.
President Obama said he wanted a “balanced approach” of spending cuts and revenue enhancements to achieve deficit reduction, but was willing to tilt Libra’s scales of balance more in favor of the cuts Republicans wanted, even going so far as to cut entitlement benefits such as raising the eligibility age for Medicare from 65 to 67. But as Saturn in Libra exactly squared Speaker Boehner’s natal Venus in Saturn-ruled Capricorn Thursday, instead of “closing the sale,” Boehner pressured the President for more spending cuts.* With Mars in Gemini squaring his natal Mars in Virgo, President Obama convened a hastily arranged news conference early Friday evening that showed the world he had had enough after Boehner had walked out of the White House.
What would it take for both sides to come to an agreement? The key to success is allowing each side to be able to claim an ideological victory with a bill that can pass Congress. Republicans need to be released from their pledges by having the pledge holders give their Republican puppets some leeway while still upholding their ideology so closing a tax loophole is not branded as raising taxes. Democrats could propose trading an extension of unemployment benefits and the payroll tax reduction for minor reductions in corporate tax loopholes. This will allow both parties to save face by claiming they forged a fairer plan with no net tax increase.
Summary Of This Week’s Influences:
The Sun is our life force and represents self-identity. Viewed from a political and financial perspective, the Sun represents leaders, courage, and confidence. The Sun rules all forms of speculation. The more courageous, confident and self-assured people are, the more inclined they are to take risks.
The Sun’s energy is strong now as the Sun entered its home sign Leo Saturday until August 23. With the Sun and Mercury currently in Leo, the market’s level of confidence is even more dependent on what leaders are saying.
This has been the first time since the height of the financial crisis that Congressional leaders resurrected the term made famous by then Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson that Washington must take action “before Asia opens” Sunday night to prevent the markets from tanking. Yet unlike the extreme volatility of those days when the market would frequently rise and fall by several hundred points, the market appears to believe an agreement to raise the debt ceiling will get done in time.
Although the Sun is at home in Leo and the Moon is quite comfortable in Taurus, these are fixed energies which reflect the stubborn pride of neither side wanting to give an inch to the other. Monday was listed in my Summer Solstice post as a pronounced market moving day primarily because Mars in Gemini reactivates the energies of the June 15 Sagittarius Lunar Eclipse. Interestingly, the market was bearish then because EU officials failed to reach agreement on another bailout for Greece. Now the week begins with no agreement to raise the debt ceiling which could make it the third Monday in a row the market is sharply negative.
The Moon entering Gemini at 12:35 PM EDT Monday through Wednesday evening could bring multiple debt ceiling plans. The Sun in Leo harmonizing with Uranus in Aries Wednesday can bring a surprise that emboldens investors to take on risk.
The Moon will be in its home sign Cancer Thursday and Friday as Venus (money/banking) moves from Cancer into Leo Thursday morning until August 21, while Mercury leaves Leo temporarily for Virgo in the early afternoon. The Sun, Mercury and Venus will conjoin in Leo on August 16, a day when the market is likely to be celebrating something then.
Mercury will be in its home sign Virgo until August 8 due to Mercury turning retrograde August 2. Mercury in Virgo demands details as it opposes Neptune in Pisces now. Mercury opposite Neptune represents the “Full Moon” phase in their cycle that began when the two planets were conjoined in Aquarius on February 20.
Full Moons help to ensure we’re “fully aware” of the situation which has reached a culmination point. Mercury and Neptune will oppose each other three times (July 29, August 8, and September 8). This first pass occurring with both planets in their home signs can indicate situations where the numbers and data fail to add up as hype is more important than reality. This is where intuition comes in handy as it can lift up the veil which is the true meaning of the word “apocalypse.” Rumors, deceptions, and news of behind the scenes activities contrasting with what’s being reported can be quite common now.
Monday, July 25, 2011
Negative.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Negative bias; Dow strongest.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Positive.
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Choppy/mixed to positive early, then weakens to negative in early afternoon before improves going into the close.
Friday, July 29, 2011
Choppy/mixed conditions dominate; mixed close.
*It should be noted that Speaker Boehner’s progressed Sun conjoins his natal Jupiter in Capricorn; both exactly conjoin the USA natal Pluto in Capricorn which explains why he has been adamantly against closing tax loopholes on corporations and the wealthiest Americans (plutocrats). His reputation and career as Speaker of the House depends upon his ability to resolve the debt issue in a way that casts his party in a favorable light.
John Boehner: November 17, 1949 time unknown Cincinnati, OH
Barack Obama: August 4, 1961 7:24 PM AHST Honolulu, HI
WallStreetWeather.net Forecast For Week Of July 17, 2011
Summary Of Last Week’s Influences:
Full Moons represent a culmination point as the Moon’s bright light shines like a spotlight to make us aware of issues demanding our full attention. Friday’s Full Moon in Capricorn brought a culmination of events illuminating the limits of fiscal and monetary policy.
Capricorn is ruled by Saturn whose infamous rings serve to maintain order within set structural boundaries. After climbing like a rocket ship approaching the Uranus station, the stock market was unable to keep the momentum last week going after Uranus turned retrograde July 9. Capricorn and Saturn are a contracting influence that tends to slow down or restrain growth. Sentiment becomes more cautious when the energies of Capricorn and Saturn are strong. Stocks tend to at least temporarily plateau with little conviction in either direction, or begin to decline in value if growth appears to be limited or stagnant.
Capricorn and Saturn rule government, corporations, regulations, and time; all themes that drove the market lower last week. Time is running out on Washington passing legislation to raise the debt limit before the government runs out of borrowing power to pay its bills. Pluto in Capricorn describes the mountain of debt here and in Europe and the call for austerity measures (Saturn!) to reduce it. Venus (money; banks) challenging Saturn in Venus-ruled Libra midweek reflected the limits of central banks and financial regulators ability to continue to prop up the economy.
European banks went through another round of “stress tests.” Just as they did the last time the Moon was in Capricorn on a Friday (Venus day), few banks failed as once again the regulators feared (Saturn!) too many hearts might stop beating if the banks were tested to see if they were healthy enough to handle the potential of a sovereign debt default.(1)
“I firmly believe that the Federal Reserve has already pressed the limits of monetary policy.” – Dallas FRB president and FOMC voting member Richard Fisher Thursday
Weeks before the Fed finished QE2, market bulls began to salivate over the prospects for QE3. They quickly zeroed in on remarks contained in the Minutes of the June 22 FOMC meeting released Tuesday that were followed up the next morning by Fed Chairman Bernanke. In his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Bernanke stated: "The possibility remains that the recent economic weakness may prove more persistent than expected and that deflationary risks might re-emerge, implying a need for additional policy support."
Born with his Sun in the sign of the Archer, Bernanke would never want to admit that he has exhausted his supply of arrows. With his Jupiter-ruled Sun opposite Jupiter in Gemini, Bernanke wants monetary policy to be as ultra accommodative as possible for as long as possible. Jupiter’s nature is to expand and inflate while Saturn’s energy tends to be deflationary unless supplies are limited.
All that optimism for QE3 began unraveling Thursday when the Fed Chairman appeared before the Senate Banking Committee. Sen. Richard Shelby, the Committee’s Ranking Republican, told Bernanke: “The last thing our weak economy needs right now is an inflation scare.” The Sun represents self-identity, the will, the ego, and the stock market. Sen. Shelby’s remark that“Our markets are watching to see if Chairman Bernanke has not only a credible plan, but also the will to take the difficult actions necessary to prevent inflation,” reflects that Bernanke has to prove he can master Saturn’s lessons. His reputation and how he will be remembered in the history books depends on it.
While Dallas FRB president Richard Fisher has said he would not have voted for QE2 if he had been a voting member on the FOMC last year, I think that Fisher and the other hawkish members of the FOMC allowed the policy to play out in exchange for the Fed being ready to begin an exit strategy. The June 22 Minutes outlined the Fed’s exit strategy which is virtually the same as what I outlined in an April post and a follow up post. The June and July eclipses to the Fed’s natal chart indicated that monetary policy has reached its limit.
I recommend readers take the time to read Fisher’s short speech that he gave on Thursday which succinctly sums up why additional monetary stimulus would do more harm than good. As Fisher explains, the majority of small businesses who want credit are able to access it. (And as I have previously pointed out, it doesn’t matter how low interest rates are if individuals and businesses do not qualify for loans due to insufficient collateral.)
Saturn in indecisive Libra and Venus squaring Saturn last week was aptly reflected in Bernanke’s testimony where he first outlines the factors that might warrant additional monetary stimulus, before remarking that “on the other hand” the exit strategy could get rolled out. Despite his academic expertise and a slew of staff economists at the Fed, Bernanke remains “uncertain” as to which direction the economy is headed. Friday’s report that June Core CPI was up 2.9% year over year which is well above the Fed’s 2% target limit, should put thoughts of QE3 to rest.
While most academic economists would claim both the reduction in employee payroll tax and the Fed’s easy money policies are stimulative, they could actually be working against each other. Consider the inflationary aspects of the Fed’s policies counteracting the stimulative aspects of the payroll tax reduction.
All the Fed’s efforts to stimulate growth and what Bernanke in his testimony referred to as “the portfolio reallocation effect” (reducing interest rates to nearly zero to push people into investing in riskier assets), might come undone if Congress fails to reach agreement (Saturn in Libra!) to raise the debt ceiling in time.(2) President Obama bookended the week with news conferences and as Venus squared Saturn (the elderly), the President admitted in questioning by CBS News that he could not guarantee Social Security payments will go out August 3. As the Moon went into Capricorn Wednesday, Moody’s warned it might cut the USA’s triple-A credit rating while S&P late Thursday put the U.S. debt on credit watch negative.
Jupiter and Sagittarius energy can be hypocritical, unwilling to walk the talk. Republicans bemoan the deficit yet as soon as President Obama was willing to cut the deficit by $4 trillion, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell came up with a “last chance option” under Tuesday’s Sagittarius Moon. In a completely hypocritical reversal (hey, Uranus was still stationary!), McConnell’s proposal would allow President Obama to raise the debt ceiling three times between now and the end of 2012 without reducing the deficit. This would allow Republicans to vote against raising the debt ceiling three times which they believe would provide great political theatre, especially as the first vote to raise the debt ceiling would be by $700 billion which just so happens to equal TARP (which the Republican leadership - McConnell, Boehner, Cantor, and Ryan all voted for).
A debt ceiling acts as a cap which would be the equivalent of a balanced budget amendment when hit. Since Congress periodically needs to raise the debt ceiling, a balanced budget amendment is nothing but pure hypocrisy. Keep in mind that the debt ceiling spells truth (Jupiter/Sagittarius is a seeker of truth) because many expenditures are either exempt from the budget or classified as “off budget” in Congressional negotiations such as the wars. Nevertheless House Republicans plan to hold a symbolic vote Tuesday on “Cut, Cap, and Balance” (whatever that means).
Summary Of This Week’s Influences:
The debt ceiling, the European sovereign debt crisis, and corporate earnings are the major influences affecting markets this week. Mars in Gemini returning to its natal position in the USA chart Thursday and reinforcing its square to Neptune in Virgo Friday/Saturday greatly increases the potential for increased geopolitical turmoil against the U.S. and U.S. interests abroad. Since Gemini is ruled by Mercury and Mercury is in Leo, developments this week largely depends on what leaders say and do.
Monday begins with the Moon (sentiment) in Neptune-ruled Pisces until midday Wednesday. The Moon in this sensitive sign tends to view the world with rose-colored glasses or in a wave of panic believes a contagion is going to wash everything away with the tide. So many disparate indicators can create confusion and the need to sort things out using greater reliance on intuition than pure logic.
The Sun in Cancer opposing the USA’s natal Pluto in Capricorn Wednesday as the Moon moves into Aries at 12:25 PM where it will be through Friday, further emphasizes the need for Democrat and Republican leaders to reach an agreement on the debt ceiling that they can quickly pass through Congress. An agreement could be reached between government regulators and banks relating to mortgage foreclosures and modifications.
The USA’s Mars return Thursday occurring with the Moon in Mars-ruled Aries indicates that events are unfolding even faster now. Events now force the U.S. to take action to begin to cure its addiction to war, oil, drugs (legal and illegal), and the mythological concept known as “the American dream.” (If the nation keeps aspiring to a dream, then aspirations just become stuck in that state and never make the transition to becoming reality!) President Obama’s Mars exactly conjoins the USA Neptune. He can take action that works to break America’s addictions and illusions or continue to perpetuate them.
Eurozone leaders are scheduled to meet Thursday to discuss a second round of aid to Greece. Thursday is the one year anniversary of Dodd-Frank (or what I prefer to call FINREG since both politicians contributed their fair share to help the housing bubble grow). Fed Chairman Bernanke, and the leaders of the SEC, CFTC, and FDIC will testify on a hearing about FINREG on Thursday when many of the legislation’s provisions begin to take effect.
“Activations” to the USA’s Mars/Neptune square can raise the potential for financial crises as Gemini and Virgo are both ruled by Mercury and the USA’s Mercury in Cancer in the sector of debt, taxes, entitlements, and bankruptcies opposes natal Pluto in Capricorn in the sector representing the nation’s income. Venus in Cancer conjoining the USA Mercury late Friday and the USA Pluto early next week can help to create a more harmonious environment that could help to facilitate cooperation on legislation.
Monday, July 18, 2011
Negative.
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Improving conditions as day progresses; positive bias.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Positive trend could weaken and reverse in afternoon.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Negative.
Friday, July 22, 2011
Weakens as day progresses; closes mixed to negative.
(1)The results of the first stress tests on European banks were released on July 23, 2010. Jupiter was stationing retrograde that day as Jupiter squared Pluto, reflecting the results were far too optimistic and grossly underestimated the amount of intervention that would be needed.
(2) See my previous posts for more on the debt ceiling:
“Fundamental Factors Impeding Employment Growth”
“President Obama: Don’t Count On U.S. Paying Debt Interest First”
“May 17, 2011 Scorpio Full Moon Over The Debt Ceiling”
“S&P Downgrades U.S. Outlook to Negative For Not Learning Saturn’s Lessons”
Full Moons represent a culmination point as the Moon’s bright light shines like a spotlight to make us aware of issues demanding our full attention. Friday’s Full Moon in Capricorn brought a culmination of events illuminating the limits of fiscal and monetary policy.
Capricorn is ruled by Saturn whose infamous rings serve to maintain order within set structural boundaries. After climbing like a rocket ship approaching the Uranus station, the stock market was unable to keep the momentum last week going after Uranus turned retrograde July 9. Capricorn and Saturn are a contracting influence that tends to slow down or restrain growth. Sentiment becomes more cautious when the energies of Capricorn and Saturn are strong. Stocks tend to at least temporarily plateau with little conviction in either direction, or begin to decline in value if growth appears to be limited or stagnant.
Capricorn and Saturn rule government, corporations, regulations, and time; all themes that drove the market lower last week. Time is running out on Washington passing legislation to raise the debt limit before the government runs out of borrowing power to pay its bills. Pluto in Capricorn describes the mountain of debt here and in Europe and the call for austerity measures (Saturn!) to reduce it. Venus (money; banks) challenging Saturn in Venus-ruled Libra midweek reflected the limits of central banks and financial regulators ability to continue to prop up the economy.
European banks went through another round of “stress tests.” Just as they did the last time the Moon was in Capricorn on a Friday (Venus day), few banks failed as once again the regulators feared (Saturn!) too many hearts might stop beating if the banks were tested to see if they were healthy enough to handle the potential of a sovereign debt default.(1)
“I firmly believe that the Federal Reserve has already pressed the limits of monetary policy.” – Dallas FRB president and FOMC voting member Richard Fisher Thursday
Weeks before the Fed finished QE2, market bulls began to salivate over the prospects for QE3. They quickly zeroed in on remarks contained in the Minutes of the June 22 FOMC meeting released Tuesday that were followed up the next morning by Fed Chairman Bernanke. In his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Bernanke stated: "The possibility remains that the recent economic weakness may prove more persistent than expected and that deflationary risks might re-emerge, implying a need for additional policy support."
Born with his Sun in the sign of the Archer, Bernanke would never want to admit that he has exhausted his supply of arrows. With his Jupiter-ruled Sun opposite Jupiter in Gemini, Bernanke wants monetary policy to be as ultra accommodative as possible for as long as possible. Jupiter’s nature is to expand and inflate while Saturn’s energy tends to be deflationary unless supplies are limited.
All that optimism for QE3 began unraveling Thursday when the Fed Chairman appeared before the Senate Banking Committee. Sen. Richard Shelby, the Committee’s Ranking Republican, told Bernanke: “The last thing our weak economy needs right now is an inflation scare.” The Sun represents self-identity, the will, the ego, and the stock market. Sen. Shelby’s remark that“Our markets are watching to see if Chairman Bernanke has not only a credible plan, but also the will to take the difficult actions necessary to prevent inflation,” reflects that Bernanke has to prove he can master Saturn’s lessons. His reputation and how he will be remembered in the history books depends on it.
While Dallas FRB president Richard Fisher has said he would not have voted for QE2 if he had been a voting member on the FOMC last year, I think that Fisher and the other hawkish members of the FOMC allowed the policy to play out in exchange for the Fed being ready to begin an exit strategy. The June 22 Minutes outlined the Fed’s exit strategy which is virtually the same as what I outlined in an April post and a follow up post. The June and July eclipses to the Fed’s natal chart indicated that monetary policy has reached its limit.
I recommend readers take the time to read Fisher’s short speech that he gave on Thursday which succinctly sums up why additional monetary stimulus would do more harm than good. As Fisher explains, the majority of small businesses who want credit are able to access it. (And as I have previously pointed out, it doesn’t matter how low interest rates are if individuals and businesses do not qualify for loans due to insufficient collateral.)
Saturn in indecisive Libra and Venus squaring Saturn last week was aptly reflected in Bernanke’s testimony where he first outlines the factors that might warrant additional monetary stimulus, before remarking that “on the other hand” the exit strategy could get rolled out. Despite his academic expertise and a slew of staff economists at the Fed, Bernanke remains “uncertain” as to which direction the economy is headed. Friday’s report that June Core CPI was up 2.9% year over year which is well above the Fed’s 2% target limit, should put thoughts of QE3 to rest.
While most academic economists would claim both the reduction in employee payroll tax and the Fed’s easy money policies are stimulative, they could actually be working against each other. Consider the inflationary aspects of the Fed’s policies counteracting the stimulative aspects of the payroll tax reduction.
All the Fed’s efforts to stimulate growth and what Bernanke in his testimony referred to as “the portfolio reallocation effect” (reducing interest rates to nearly zero to push people into investing in riskier assets), might come undone if Congress fails to reach agreement (Saturn in Libra!) to raise the debt ceiling in time.(2) President Obama bookended the week with news conferences and as Venus squared Saturn (the elderly), the President admitted in questioning by CBS News that he could not guarantee Social Security payments will go out August 3. As the Moon went into Capricorn Wednesday, Moody’s warned it might cut the USA’s triple-A credit rating while S&P late Thursday put the U.S. debt on credit watch negative.
Jupiter and Sagittarius energy can be hypocritical, unwilling to walk the talk. Republicans bemoan the deficit yet as soon as President Obama was willing to cut the deficit by $4 trillion, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell came up with a “last chance option” under Tuesday’s Sagittarius Moon. In a completely hypocritical reversal (hey, Uranus was still stationary!), McConnell’s proposal would allow President Obama to raise the debt ceiling three times between now and the end of 2012 without reducing the deficit. This would allow Republicans to vote against raising the debt ceiling three times which they believe would provide great political theatre, especially as the first vote to raise the debt ceiling would be by $700 billion which just so happens to equal TARP (which the Republican leadership - McConnell, Boehner, Cantor, and Ryan all voted for).
A debt ceiling acts as a cap which would be the equivalent of a balanced budget amendment when hit. Since Congress periodically needs to raise the debt ceiling, a balanced budget amendment is nothing but pure hypocrisy. Keep in mind that the debt ceiling spells truth (Jupiter/Sagittarius is a seeker of truth) because many expenditures are either exempt from the budget or classified as “off budget” in Congressional negotiations such as the wars. Nevertheless House Republicans plan to hold a symbolic vote Tuesday on “Cut, Cap, and Balance” (whatever that means).
Summary Of This Week’s Influences:
The debt ceiling, the European sovereign debt crisis, and corporate earnings are the major influences affecting markets this week. Mars in Gemini returning to its natal position in the USA chart Thursday and reinforcing its square to Neptune in Virgo Friday/Saturday greatly increases the potential for increased geopolitical turmoil against the U.S. and U.S. interests abroad. Since Gemini is ruled by Mercury and Mercury is in Leo, developments this week largely depends on what leaders say and do.
Monday begins with the Moon (sentiment) in Neptune-ruled Pisces until midday Wednesday. The Moon in this sensitive sign tends to view the world with rose-colored glasses or in a wave of panic believes a contagion is going to wash everything away with the tide. So many disparate indicators can create confusion and the need to sort things out using greater reliance on intuition than pure logic.
The Sun in Cancer opposing the USA’s natal Pluto in Capricorn Wednesday as the Moon moves into Aries at 12:25 PM where it will be through Friday, further emphasizes the need for Democrat and Republican leaders to reach an agreement on the debt ceiling that they can quickly pass through Congress. An agreement could be reached between government regulators and banks relating to mortgage foreclosures and modifications.
The USA’s Mars return Thursday occurring with the Moon in Mars-ruled Aries indicates that events are unfolding even faster now. Events now force the U.S. to take action to begin to cure its addiction to war, oil, drugs (legal and illegal), and the mythological concept known as “the American dream.” (If the nation keeps aspiring to a dream, then aspirations just become stuck in that state and never make the transition to becoming reality!) President Obama’s Mars exactly conjoins the USA Neptune. He can take action that works to break America’s addictions and illusions or continue to perpetuate them.
Eurozone leaders are scheduled to meet Thursday to discuss a second round of aid to Greece. Thursday is the one year anniversary of Dodd-Frank (or what I prefer to call FINREG since both politicians contributed their fair share to help the housing bubble grow). Fed Chairman Bernanke, and the leaders of the SEC, CFTC, and FDIC will testify on a hearing about FINREG on Thursday when many of the legislation’s provisions begin to take effect.
“Activations” to the USA’s Mars/Neptune square can raise the potential for financial crises as Gemini and Virgo are both ruled by Mercury and the USA’s Mercury in Cancer in the sector of debt, taxes, entitlements, and bankruptcies opposes natal Pluto in Capricorn in the sector representing the nation’s income. Venus in Cancer conjoining the USA Mercury late Friday and the USA Pluto early next week can help to create a more harmonious environment that could help to facilitate cooperation on legislation.
Monday, July 18, 2011
Negative.
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Improving conditions as day progresses; positive bias.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Positive trend could weaken and reverse in afternoon.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Negative.
Friday, July 22, 2011
Weakens as day progresses; closes mixed to negative.
(1)The results of the first stress tests on European banks were released on July 23, 2010. Jupiter was stationing retrograde that day as Jupiter squared Pluto, reflecting the results were far too optimistic and grossly underestimated the amount of intervention that would be needed.
(2) See my previous posts for more on the debt ceiling:
“Fundamental Factors Impeding Employment Growth”
“President Obama: Don’t Count On U.S. Paying Debt Interest First”
“May 17, 2011 Scorpio Full Moon Over The Debt Ceiling”
“S&P Downgrades U.S. Outlook to Negative For Not Learning Saturn’s Lessons”
WallStreetWeather Forecast For Week Of July 10, 2011
Summary Of Last Week’s Influences:
Just as the major indices were getting close to their April 29 closing highs for the year on Thursday when the Dow Jones Transportation index closed at a record high of 5,618.25, Friday’s employment report abruptly reversed their winning streak.
Unexpected events, reversals, and prices that sharply break through support or resistance levels describe the energy of Uranus. These are the only characteristics that are predictable about the totally unpredictable nature of Uranus.
The energies of Uranus have been particularly strong since the Sun (speculation) squared Uranus in fast moving Aries June 26. Aries is ruled by Mars, and with Mars in Gemini favorably aspecting Uranus then, it appears the market wanted to get ahead of the gains it believes will follow by attempting to “front run” Uranus ahead of its July 9 retrograde station.
After the major indices fell to their lowest levels of 2010 on July 2 as Uranus from Earth’s vantage point appeared to reverse from direct to retrograde motion July 5, the market sharply reversed its decline and with the exception of a few pullbacks, has continued to rapidly move higher.
One year later as Uranus turned retrograde, the same global economic conditions (unemployment concerns; European sovereign debt crisis) remain at the forefront. Yet for all the "uncertainty" caused by Washington’s failure so far to raise the debt ceiling and an almost zero chance of the Fed doing a third round of quantitative easing, investors are buying, holding, and folding (short covering) which has moved the market sharply higher during the last two weeks of very low volume pre/post Independence Day holiday trading. A lack of selling in this type of environment pushes the market higher similar to the ultra long ETFs that can double or even triple the gains of the major indices. Now that investors have attempted to anticipate Uranus’ moves in advance, this erratic energy could decide to change course and do the reverse of last year.
With the exception of Friday's employment report, Jupiter in Taurus making the first of three harmonious alignments to Pluto in Capricorn last Thursday brought a wave of optimism as various economic reports modestly beat expectations. Adding to the optimism was Venus in Cancer returning to its natal position in the USA chart, reinforcing its conjunction with the USA natal Jupiter.
Jupiter/Pluto together with Venus in Cancer opposing Pluto increases the potential for M&A activity. Interestingly, Deutsche Borse Group and NYSE Euronext (NYX) announced their merger agreement on February 9 as Venus conjoined Pluto. Last week as Venus opposed Pluto brought the merger to a culmination as shareholders of the two stock exchanges voted to approve the merger. (The merger will still have to be approved by the Justice Department.)
Summary Of This Week’s Influences:
In “President Obama: Don’t Count On U.S. Paying Debt Interest First,” I wrote:
“When the energies of Uranus the great awakener are strong, there is a tendency for sudden reversals. While Uranus turning retrograde could coincide with Republicans beginning to reverse their current stance, it can also motivate the most extreme ideologues of the party to refuse to cooperate.”
As Uranus turned retrograde Saturday evening, House Speaker Boehner in a “major reversal” described by The New York Times, announced he wants to shrink the Democrats $4 trillion in deficit cuts in half and return to the deal originally negotiated with Vice President Biden.
The Moon is our emotional barometer and indicator of sentiment. Issues related to the debt have been emotionally intense all weekend with the Moon in Pluto-ruled Scorpio. A 6:00 PM meeting Sunday between President Obama and Congressional leaders was assumed to have made little to no progress since the meeting only lasted 75 minutes according to Reuters when it had been anticipated to last for 4-5 hours. The Moon had finished making any major relationships to the other planets and was “void-of-course” (VOC). These periods occur about every 2.5 days before the Moon is about to change signs and do not usually result in the outcome originally intended. Although VOC times are best suited for handling routine matters rather than important ones, the time left to resolve the debt ceiling is rapidly running out.
The Moon enters Jupiter-ruled Sagittarius early Monday morning, putting the spotlight on global financial matters with Jupiter in Taurus. According to Reuters, the EU will hold an emergency debt crisis meeting Monday morning and also discuss concerns that the European debt contagion could migrate to Italy. Jupiter does everything on a large scale which explains why that the market is prone to make outsized moves during the next 2.5 days the Moon is in Sagittarius.
President Obama is scheduled to hold a news conference Monday at 11:00 AM EDT. The Moon in Sagittarius combined with Mercury in Leo favorably aspecting Mars in Gemini can indicate the President will be even more blunt than he was during his June 29 news conference when the Moon was in Sagittarius’ opposite sign Gemini.
Earnings season officially gets underway when Alcoa (AA) reports after the close Monday. The Moon in Sagittarius and Jupiter harmonizing with Pluto suggests that investors have become too reliant on China and other emerging markets that are now experiencing a slowdown in growth and a sharp increase in inflation.
Although the market is a forward looking indicator, there are too many fundamental issues affecting employment that make it difficult for the market to continue to accelerate at the current pace beyond this time.
Back in February as Venus in Capricorn was squaring Saturn in Libra at the February 18 Leo Full Moon, I wrote that this signature indicated a temporary market top. On Wednesday Venus in Capricorn’s opposite sign Cancer will square Saturn as the Moon enters Saturn-ruled Capricorn at 10:14 AM until Friday at 4:30 PM. This time a temporary top going into the Full Moon might not be temporary but instead could represent the market peaking out for the year. Venus has now disappeared from the morning sky, a period that tends to correlate to the market’s strongest performance of the year. Having the planets of economic expansion (Jupiter) and contraction (Saturn) in the signs ruled by Venus can weaken the market’s ability to continue to make gains.
The Moon in Capricorn combined with Venus squaring Saturn emphasizes fiscal and monetary policy and financial regulation. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will appear before the House Financial Services Committee at 10:00 AM Wednesday to give his semi-annual testimony. (It was during his testimony last year that Bernanke said the economic outlook was “unusually uncertain” which set the stage for QE2. Wednesday’s energies suggest Bernanke will be asked to explain the factors impeding economic growth.
Last Friday’s First Quarter Moon (influencing the period July 8-14) conjoined Saturn as well as the October 7, 2010 Libra New Moon which also conjoined Saturn. As I described in “The Fallout From Toxic Mortgage Processing,” it was during this time that state Attorney Generals joined in a lawsuit against the big banks for the banks and mortgage servicers lack of proper documentation and procedures in the foreclosure process.
Venus in Cancer the sign ruling real estate squaring Saturn, together with Pluto exactly opposing the USA Jupiter Friday indicates a major legal settlement could be reached Wednesday which might cost the banks at least $20 billion to establish a fund for states to resolve civil lawsuits in addition to a federal fund to provide financing relief to borrowers.
OECD data released last Tuesday showed that consumer prices in 34 developed economies grew at the fastest pace since October 2008, up 3.2% May/May, with 2.9% of that gain this year. U.S. inflation rose to 3.6% from 3.2% in May, second biggest jump among the 34 developed nations after Canada. This is why the OECD is urging central banks to raise interest rates! The ECB heeded the call by raising rates another 0.25% to 1.50%, as China raised its lending rate 0.25% to 6.56%.
Thursday’s PPI report and Friday’s CPI together Michigan Consumer Sentiment will show the difference between how the government calculates inflation compared to consumers’ inflation expectations. (I wonder if the government considers a downgrade in clothing fabric to be inflationary? While shopping Saturday I noticed many clothes that were 100% cotton are now a blend that is 60% cotton and 40% polyester with the prices higher than the clothes that were 100% cotton.)
The Full Moon in Capricorn at 2:41 AM Friday shines the spotlight on creating greater emotional security by balancing personal needs with professional responsibilities.
Monday, July 11, 2011
The first trading day of Uranus retrograde increases the potential for the market to reverse from Friday. Negative, then starts improving in the afternoon which could bring a late day turnaround.
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Negative.
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Choppy/mixed to positive.
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Positive open, then turns choppy to negative before reversing going into the close.
Friday, July 15, 2011 (Options expiration)
Choppy/mixed to moderately positive.
Just as the major indices were getting close to their April 29 closing highs for the year on Thursday when the Dow Jones Transportation index closed at a record high of 5,618.25, Friday’s employment report abruptly reversed their winning streak.
Unexpected events, reversals, and prices that sharply break through support or resistance levels describe the energy of Uranus. These are the only characteristics that are predictable about the totally unpredictable nature of Uranus.
The energies of Uranus have been particularly strong since the Sun (speculation) squared Uranus in fast moving Aries June 26. Aries is ruled by Mars, and with Mars in Gemini favorably aspecting Uranus then, it appears the market wanted to get ahead of the gains it believes will follow by attempting to “front run” Uranus ahead of its July 9 retrograde station.
After the major indices fell to their lowest levels of 2010 on July 2 as Uranus from Earth’s vantage point appeared to reverse from direct to retrograde motion July 5, the market sharply reversed its decline and with the exception of a few pullbacks, has continued to rapidly move higher.
One year later as Uranus turned retrograde, the same global economic conditions (unemployment concerns; European sovereign debt crisis) remain at the forefront. Yet for all the "uncertainty" caused by Washington’s failure so far to raise the debt ceiling and an almost zero chance of the Fed doing a third round of quantitative easing, investors are buying, holding, and folding (short covering) which has moved the market sharply higher during the last two weeks of very low volume pre/post Independence Day holiday trading. A lack of selling in this type of environment pushes the market higher similar to the ultra long ETFs that can double or even triple the gains of the major indices. Now that investors have attempted to anticipate Uranus’ moves in advance, this erratic energy could decide to change course and do the reverse of last year.
With the exception of Friday's employment report, Jupiter in Taurus making the first of three harmonious alignments to Pluto in Capricorn last Thursday brought a wave of optimism as various economic reports modestly beat expectations. Adding to the optimism was Venus in Cancer returning to its natal position in the USA chart, reinforcing its conjunction with the USA natal Jupiter.
Jupiter/Pluto together with Venus in Cancer opposing Pluto increases the potential for M&A activity. Interestingly, Deutsche Borse Group and NYSE Euronext (NYX) announced their merger agreement on February 9 as Venus conjoined Pluto. Last week as Venus opposed Pluto brought the merger to a culmination as shareholders of the two stock exchanges voted to approve the merger. (The merger will still have to be approved by the Justice Department.)
Summary Of This Week’s Influences:
In “President Obama: Don’t Count On U.S. Paying Debt Interest First,” I wrote:
“When the energies of Uranus the great awakener are strong, there is a tendency for sudden reversals. While Uranus turning retrograde could coincide with Republicans beginning to reverse their current stance, it can also motivate the most extreme ideologues of the party to refuse to cooperate.”
As Uranus turned retrograde Saturday evening, House Speaker Boehner in a “major reversal” described by The New York Times, announced he wants to shrink the Democrats $4 trillion in deficit cuts in half and return to the deal originally negotiated with Vice President Biden.
The Moon is our emotional barometer and indicator of sentiment. Issues related to the debt have been emotionally intense all weekend with the Moon in Pluto-ruled Scorpio. A 6:00 PM meeting Sunday between President Obama and Congressional leaders was assumed to have made little to no progress since the meeting only lasted 75 minutes according to Reuters when it had been anticipated to last for 4-5 hours. The Moon had finished making any major relationships to the other planets and was “void-of-course” (VOC). These periods occur about every 2.5 days before the Moon is about to change signs and do not usually result in the outcome originally intended. Although VOC times are best suited for handling routine matters rather than important ones, the time left to resolve the debt ceiling is rapidly running out.
The Moon enters Jupiter-ruled Sagittarius early Monday morning, putting the spotlight on global financial matters with Jupiter in Taurus. According to Reuters, the EU will hold an emergency debt crisis meeting Monday morning and also discuss concerns that the European debt contagion could migrate to Italy. Jupiter does everything on a large scale which explains why that the market is prone to make outsized moves during the next 2.5 days the Moon is in Sagittarius.
President Obama is scheduled to hold a news conference Monday at 11:00 AM EDT. The Moon in Sagittarius combined with Mercury in Leo favorably aspecting Mars in Gemini can indicate the President will be even more blunt than he was during his June 29 news conference when the Moon was in Sagittarius’ opposite sign Gemini.
Earnings season officially gets underway when Alcoa (AA) reports after the close Monday. The Moon in Sagittarius and Jupiter harmonizing with Pluto suggests that investors have become too reliant on China and other emerging markets that are now experiencing a slowdown in growth and a sharp increase in inflation.
Although the market is a forward looking indicator, there are too many fundamental issues affecting employment that make it difficult for the market to continue to accelerate at the current pace beyond this time.
Back in February as Venus in Capricorn was squaring Saturn in Libra at the February 18 Leo Full Moon, I wrote that this signature indicated a temporary market top. On Wednesday Venus in Capricorn’s opposite sign Cancer will square Saturn as the Moon enters Saturn-ruled Capricorn at 10:14 AM until Friday at 4:30 PM. This time a temporary top going into the Full Moon might not be temporary but instead could represent the market peaking out for the year. Venus has now disappeared from the morning sky, a period that tends to correlate to the market’s strongest performance of the year. Having the planets of economic expansion (Jupiter) and contraction (Saturn) in the signs ruled by Venus can weaken the market’s ability to continue to make gains.
The Moon in Capricorn combined with Venus squaring Saturn emphasizes fiscal and monetary policy and financial regulation. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will appear before the House Financial Services Committee at 10:00 AM Wednesday to give his semi-annual testimony. (It was during his testimony last year that Bernanke said the economic outlook was “unusually uncertain” which set the stage for QE2. Wednesday’s energies suggest Bernanke will be asked to explain the factors impeding economic growth.
Last Friday’s First Quarter Moon (influencing the period July 8-14) conjoined Saturn as well as the October 7, 2010 Libra New Moon which also conjoined Saturn. As I described in “The Fallout From Toxic Mortgage Processing,” it was during this time that state Attorney Generals joined in a lawsuit against the big banks for the banks and mortgage servicers lack of proper documentation and procedures in the foreclosure process.
Venus in Cancer the sign ruling real estate squaring Saturn, together with Pluto exactly opposing the USA Jupiter Friday indicates a major legal settlement could be reached Wednesday which might cost the banks at least $20 billion to establish a fund for states to resolve civil lawsuits in addition to a federal fund to provide financing relief to borrowers.
OECD data released last Tuesday showed that consumer prices in 34 developed economies grew at the fastest pace since October 2008, up 3.2% May/May, with 2.9% of that gain this year. U.S. inflation rose to 3.6% from 3.2% in May, second biggest jump among the 34 developed nations after Canada. This is why the OECD is urging central banks to raise interest rates! The ECB heeded the call by raising rates another 0.25% to 1.50%, as China raised its lending rate 0.25% to 6.56%.
Thursday’s PPI report and Friday’s CPI together Michigan Consumer Sentiment will show the difference between how the government calculates inflation compared to consumers’ inflation expectations. (I wonder if the government considers a downgrade in clothing fabric to be inflationary? While shopping Saturday I noticed many clothes that were 100% cotton are now a blend that is 60% cotton and 40% polyester with the prices higher than the clothes that were 100% cotton.)
The Full Moon in Capricorn at 2:41 AM Friday shines the spotlight on creating greater emotional security by balancing personal needs with professional responsibilities.
Monday, July 11, 2011
The first trading day of Uranus retrograde increases the potential for the market to reverse from Friday. Negative, then starts improving in the afternoon which could bring a late day turnaround.
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Negative.
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Choppy/mixed to positive.
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Positive open, then turns choppy to negative before reversing going into the close.
Friday, July 15, 2011 (Options expiration)
Choppy/mixed to moderately positive.
Fundamental Factors Impeding Employment Growth
Published by WallStreetWeather.net
“Shocking” was the word most frequently used to describe Friday’s employment report showing companies hired 18,000 workers in June. The unemployment rate rose from 9.1% to 9.2%, its highest level this year. The BLS also revised downward nonfarm payrolls for April and May.(1)This was in stark reversal to Thursday’s optimism after ADP reported 157,000 new hires were added to private payrolls last month. The chart on ADP’s website (scroll further down on their webpage), shows employment slowly but steadily increasing since the beginning of 2011.
The ADP report only reflects private sector employment at ADP’s client companies whereas the government’s report reflects all private and public sector employment. Excluding government payrolls which continue to decline, 57,000 workers were added to private payrolls. (2) But if the data contained in the government’s report is accurate and June’s report does not turn out to be an anomaly, then it is likely that June’s payrolls and the downward revisions since April reflects the growing reluctance among employers to hire. The uncertainty surrounding the federal debt ceiling issue is one factor impeding employment growth.
Concerns about Congress reaching agreement to raise the debt ceiling in time began to surface in April after Washington failed to reach agreement on funding the current fiscal year budget until the very last minute. Less than two weeks later, S&P downgraded the U.S. long-term credit rating to negative over concerns that the U.S. will delay addressing medium to long-term budgetary challenges until after the 2012 presidential election. Anytime a business faces either an uncertain future or a period of reduced revenue, they will be reluctant to purchase new equipment or expand employment.
In my previous post I described how virtually every business either directly or indirectly does business with the federal government. To elaborate further, a company supplying products or services to General Electric (GE) is only one step away from doing business with the federal government. As another example, the workers in a restaurant serving primarily Honeywell (HON) employees are also one step away from doing business with the federal government.
Whether we like it or not, we are all connected to the federal government in one way or another. A government shutdown for any length of time will put everyone’s paycheck at risk, and thus reduce consumer spending. As more people feel at risk they will spend less, which in turn puts that much more people at risk. This has the potential of creating a downward spiral that puts the economy back into recession. So although no one knows exactly what would happen in a government shutdown, what we do know is that these interconnections will impact the economy. Rather than state that a government shutdown would be "calamitous" which is too vague for the public to relate to (especially for those who believe he is engaging in pure political rhetoric), it would behoove President Obama to specifically explain to the public how these interconnections impact the economy.
Even though Democrats have now agreed to $4 trillion in spending cuts over the next 10-12 years, Republicans refuse to compromise on anything. They stubbornly insist that closing corporate tax loopholes is a tax increase because Grover Norquist told them so.(3) Republicans complain about “uncertainty,” yet their refusal to raise the debt ceiling could jeopardize the fragile economic recovery. President Obama and the Democrats should stand firm against agreeing to a short term solution that postpones the issue or only raises the debt ceiling enough until after the 2012 presidential election as it will only perpetuate companies’ reluctance to hire permanent full-time workers.
Shocks, surprises, unexpected events, and reversals are all part of the planetary energy of Uranus. This is especially true now as Uranus’ energy is particularly potent July 7-13 as Uranus from Earth’s vantage point appears to be motionless in the sky as it turned retrograde July 9 (until December 10). Uranus in Aries turns retrograde as it squares the USA’s natal Venus (revenues) which conjoins Jupiter, the planetary energy of abundance. Venus rules the sectors of the USA chart representing the labor force, the Administration (as well as corporations), and Congress. What happens in Washington has a direct impact on employment conditions. The influence of Uranus in Aries squaring the USA Venus and Jupiter over the next eighteen months reflects that incoming revenues tend to be erratic. As Uranus stations retrograde, it squares the USA Venus which increases the potential for disruptions in government and corporate revenues (such as in a government shutdown).
Uranus in Aries indicates the time for reform is now before a crisis erupts into chaos. Uranus stationing at the time of Friday’s First Quarter Moon in Aries opposite sign Libra indicates that Washington must act now. Pluto in Capricorn exactly opposes the USA Jupiter now at the same time the energies of Uranus and Pluto are in a frictional relationship with each other. The huge deficit gap cannot shrink without a radical transformation of the tax code in order to raise the revenue needed to make a dent in the deficit. Venus in Cancer opposite Pluto Friday indicated that a workable solution to reducing the deficit cannot be achieved unless the two parties agree to balance spending cuts with revenue enhancements, as so aptly named by President Reagan (i.e. closing tax loopholes). These energies reinforce the fact that the public’s income is dependent on government in one form or another.
Moreover the First Quarter Moon in Venus-ruled Libra (July 8 at 2:30 AM EDT) conjoining Saturn in Libra in the sector representing employment in the chart set for Washington DC indicates that job growth is slow but steady with Venus ruling this sector and Venus in Cancer favorably aspecting Jupiter in Venus-ruled Taurus. But the Moon conjoining Saturn as the Moon conjoins the USA’s natal Saturn in Libra reflects that employment growth is being stunted by the ever fluctuating conditions as Washington infighting has inhibited resolution.(4)
The Moon conjoining Saturn here also reflects the contraction that has been underway in government payrolls. Venus in the sector of revenue opposite Pluto in Saturn-ruled Capricorn in its home sector of income and entitlements dependent upon others reflects the growing impact on businesses revenue resulting from government layoffs.(4) The relatively recent phenomena of segregating government payrolls from private payrolls doesn’t change the fact that until the government workers get absorbed into the private sector with comparable compensation, it doesn’t matter to small businesses in particular if the customer is a government or private sector worker so long as they continue to patronize their business. A person out of work or earning a fraction of what they used to is likely to be a less frequent customer or an ex-customer altogether.
As Saturn returns to its natal position in the USA chart (see my previous post for more info) as Uranus and Pluto engage in a challenging alignment to each other and the USA Venus/Jupiter in Cancer, it is time for the USA to make the difficult choices and structural reforms now so the transformation of the U.S. from a consumer to manufacturing and technology driven economy can occur much faster.
While Jupiter expands, Saturn contracts but can bring rich rewards but only if the focus is on the long term. Saturn rules history and looking at this Wall Street Journal graphic tracking the unemployment rate since it was first recorded in 1948 shows that prior to now, the three highest rates of unemployment occurred when Saturn was making challenging alignments to the USA chart. Just like now, two of the three periods occurred when Saturn was transiting Libra.
The unemployment rate was 9% in May 1975 as Saturn conjoined the USA’s natal Sun in Cancer, squaring the USA’s Saturn in Libra. This alignment had been preceded by the transit of Saturn squaring Pluto in 1974 over the USA’s natal Venus/Jupiter conjunction. The recession created a contraction in employment. (While the square between Saturn and Pluto occurred in the same phase of their 38 year cycle during 2009-10, the influence of their energies is only now beginning to recede.)
Prior to the current economic downturn, the last time the unemployment rate was 9.2% was in September 1983 during the previous transit of Saturn in Libra. As Saturn returned to its natal position in the USA chart in October 1981, the unemployment rate was 7.9%. The unemployment rate peaked at 10.1% in June 1983 as Saturn conjoined Pluto in Libra which began their current cycle. At the same time Saturn conjoined Pluto, the two planets squared the USA natal Pluto in Capricorn located in the sector of the USA chart representing the nation’s net worth. Contracting revenues, tight lending conditions, and historically high interest rates (all Saturn/Pluto stuff) was certainly not a conducive environment for companies to hire additional workers.
The expression ”this time is different” accurately describes why current economic conditions contrast with the recoveries that followed previous downturns and recessions. The political polarization in Washington has never been so extreme thanks to the Supreme Court’s 2010 decision enabling plutocrats and corporations to spend unlimited amounts of money on political causes. This secret funding (Pluto in Capricorn) has enabled the most extreme leaders of these causes to build their personal “brand” (Uranus in Aries) at the nation’s expense as Uranus and Pluto make challenging alignments to the USA Venus and Jupiter in Cancer (the sign ruled by the Moon which represents the general public). In addition to the unprecedented political factor, job growth in the U.S. will be slow and the unemployment rate is likely to remain elevated due to the following economic differences:
1. In contrast to recovering from prior economic downturns, recessions, and the Great Depression (which was the last time Uranus in Aries squared Pluto), is the lack of construction spending. We are currently experiencing the fallout from a construction boom in residential and commercial real estate and the accompanying infrastructure building to support new development in previously undeveloped or underdeveloped areas.
2. The Federal Reserve has run out of assets to prop up. The Dow and S&P500 are near their record 2007 highs and the Nasdaq is at its highest level since the recovery from the internet bubble, yet the economy has still not responded.
3. Interest rates prior to the financial crisis were low to begin with vs. the prior Saturn cycle when the Fed raised interest rates to record high levels to combat runaway inflation. The Fed succeeded, and the economy expanded then as the Fed began to reduce rates back to normal levels. All forms of construction were depressed because of high interest rates. As soon as interest rates were lowered, a construction gusher was released.
Dropping rates to almost zero with two rounds of quantitative easing has done little for employment. Cheap money has generated more M&A activity resulting in higher unemployment. Speculation in commodities is putting additional pressure on consumer and business balance sheets which hurts hiring.
4. Consumers’ balance sheets were way too overleveraged going into the recession, so it will take time for them to lower the debt mountain (Pluto in Capricorn for the first time since the nation was founded).
5. Uranus rules technology and the internet. Today’s internet bubble is different from the first time around as the telecom bubble was a key component of the 1990s internet bubble. The installation of fiber optics cable throughout the world at that time reflects my premise based on historical precedence that construction is an essential ingredient to reduce unemployment because it creates a variety of jobs for low, semi, and skilled workers. Laying fiber optic cables begins with low skilled workers digging trenches and begins moving up the skill set through splicers to engineers programming the optical transmission equipment.
While the internet boom of the 1990s was all about selling real goods over the internet and was more in balance with the overall diversity of the labor pool, the current internet boom is primarily focused on selling virtual goods. With the exception of Amazon.com’s (AMZN) distribution centers, the virtual internet has created very few jobs for low and semi-skilled workers as this boom is concentrated among highly skilled techies (Uranus in Aries). Uranus in Aries reflects the fierce competition amongst tech companies for those few individuals who hold the unique skills that can bring their company’s projects to the finish line first.
Saturn is the backbone and Saturn in Libra is the bridge that connects the internet’s physical infrastructure (the server farms) that powers the internet. Although building a server farm requires construction, wiring, and assembly of the servers themselves, the amount of lower skilled workers required to lay fiber optic cable in the telecom boom was far greater.
As I have written several times, the U.S. is experiencing the arduous process of going “back to the future” by transforming the nation’s economic structure from a service economy back to being the leader in manufacturing and technological development. The transition is likely to keep the unemployment rate elevated despite the fact that more jobs are being created since the financial investment required in a manufacturing economy is so much greater than a service economy.
Let’s create a couple of hypothetical examples to illustrate what I mean. A person opens a restaurant which costs the owner of the business $100,000 to make the improvements needed to the space to operate the restaurant. The owner hires 100 people, so each job requires $1,000 investment. In keeping with the energy of Uranus in Aries, a business person who wants to manufacture a new precision electric motor in the U.S. spends $2 million to build a manufacturing plant to hire 100 workers. In this case each job requires $20,000 worth of investment. (These simplistic examples do not consider the investment required to cover any losses while the business is getting off the ground.)
Obviously it takes a lot more investment to create a manufacturing job than a service job. In the age of the internet and its short attention span, it’s become more difficult than ever for people to have the patience for a long term transition.
The USA’s Saturn in Libra is located in the sector of the USA chart representing the federal government and the President. The fundamental factors I’ve outlined would affect whichever political party occupied the White House, and whatever ideology they brought to the table. But these factors are difficult to encapsulate in a talking point – let alone a Tweet.
(1)April was revised lower to +217,000 from +232,000 and May to +25,000 from +54,000.
(2)57,000 private sector jobs less 39,000 government sector jobs equals 18,000 additional hires.
(3)Interestingly, the Democrats have agreed to a level of cuts that closely aligns with Rep. Paul Ryan’s “roadmap” that calls for reducing the deficit by $4.4 trillion over 10 years.
(4)The Moon in Pisces in the sector of employment in Summer Solstice chart reflects fluctuating employment conditions during the summer.
USA: July 4, 1776 5:10 PM LMT Philadelphia, PA
“Shocking” was the word most frequently used to describe Friday’s employment report showing companies hired 18,000 workers in June. The unemployment rate rose from 9.1% to 9.2%, its highest level this year. The BLS also revised downward nonfarm payrolls for April and May.(1)This was in stark reversal to Thursday’s optimism after ADP reported 157,000 new hires were added to private payrolls last month. The chart on ADP’s website (scroll further down on their webpage), shows employment slowly but steadily increasing since the beginning of 2011.
The ADP report only reflects private sector employment at ADP’s client companies whereas the government’s report reflects all private and public sector employment. Excluding government payrolls which continue to decline, 57,000 workers were added to private payrolls. (2) But if the data contained in the government’s report is accurate and June’s report does not turn out to be an anomaly, then it is likely that June’s payrolls and the downward revisions since April reflects the growing reluctance among employers to hire. The uncertainty surrounding the federal debt ceiling issue is one factor impeding employment growth.
Concerns about Congress reaching agreement to raise the debt ceiling in time began to surface in April after Washington failed to reach agreement on funding the current fiscal year budget until the very last minute. Less than two weeks later, S&P downgraded the U.S. long-term credit rating to negative over concerns that the U.S. will delay addressing medium to long-term budgetary challenges until after the 2012 presidential election. Anytime a business faces either an uncertain future or a period of reduced revenue, they will be reluctant to purchase new equipment or expand employment.
In my previous post I described how virtually every business either directly or indirectly does business with the federal government. To elaborate further, a company supplying products or services to General Electric (GE) is only one step away from doing business with the federal government. As another example, the workers in a restaurant serving primarily Honeywell (HON) employees are also one step away from doing business with the federal government.
Whether we like it or not, we are all connected to the federal government in one way or another. A government shutdown for any length of time will put everyone’s paycheck at risk, and thus reduce consumer spending. As more people feel at risk they will spend less, which in turn puts that much more people at risk. This has the potential of creating a downward spiral that puts the economy back into recession. So although no one knows exactly what would happen in a government shutdown, what we do know is that these interconnections will impact the economy. Rather than state that a government shutdown would be "calamitous" which is too vague for the public to relate to (especially for those who believe he is engaging in pure political rhetoric), it would behoove President Obama to specifically explain to the public how these interconnections impact the economy.
Even though Democrats have now agreed to $4 trillion in spending cuts over the next 10-12 years, Republicans refuse to compromise on anything. They stubbornly insist that closing corporate tax loopholes is a tax increase because Grover Norquist told them so.(3) Republicans complain about “uncertainty,” yet their refusal to raise the debt ceiling could jeopardize the fragile economic recovery. President Obama and the Democrats should stand firm against agreeing to a short term solution that postpones the issue or only raises the debt ceiling enough until after the 2012 presidential election as it will only perpetuate companies’ reluctance to hire permanent full-time workers.
Shocks, surprises, unexpected events, and reversals are all part of the planetary energy of Uranus. This is especially true now as Uranus’ energy is particularly potent July 7-13 as Uranus from Earth’s vantage point appears to be motionless in the sky as it turned retrograde July 9 (until December 10). Uranus in Aries turns retrograde as it squares the USA’s natal Venus (revenues) which conjoins Jupiter, the planetary energy of abundance. Venus rules the sectors of the USA chart representing the labor force, the Administration (as well as corporations), and Congress. What happens in Washington has a direct impact on employment conditions. The influence of Uranus in Aries squaring the USA Venus and Jupiter over the next eighteen months reflects that incoming revenues tend to be erratic. As Uranus stations retrograde, it squares the USA Venus which increases the potential for disruptions in government and corporate revenues (such as in a government shutdown).
Uranus in Aries indicates the time for reform is now before a crisis erupts into chaos. Uranus stationing at the time of Friday’s First Quarter Moon in Aries opposite sign Libra indicates that Washington must act now. Pluto in Capricorn exactly opposes the USA Jupiter now at the same time the energies of Uranus and Pluto are in a frictional relationship with each other. The huge deficit gap cannot shrink without a radical transformation of the tax code in order to raise the revenue needed to make a dent in the deficit. Venus in Cancer opposite Pluto Friday indicated that a workable solution to reducing the deficit cannot be achieved unless the two parties agree to balance spending cuts with revenue enhancements, as so aptly named by President Reagan (i.e. closing tax loopholes). These energies reinforce the fact that the public’s income is dependent on government in one form or another.
Moreover the First Quarter Moon in Venus-ruled Libra (July 8 at 2:30 AM EDT) conjoining Saturn in Libra in the sector representing employment in the chart set for Washington DC indicates that job growth is slow but steady with Venus ruling this sector and Venus in Cancer favorably aspecting Jupiter in Venus-ruled Taurus. But the Moon conjoining Saturn as the Moon conjoins the USA’s natal Saturn in Libra reflects that employment growth is being stunted by the ever fluctuating conditions as Washington infighting has inhibited resolution.(4)
The Moon conjoining Saturn here also reflects the contraction that has been underway in government payrolls. Venus in the sector of revenue opposite Pluto in Saturn-ruled Capricorn in its home sector of income and entitlements dependent upon others reflects the growing impact on businesses revenue resulting from government layoffs.(4) The relatively recent phenomena of segregating government payrolls from private payrolls doesn’t change the fact that until the government workers get absorbed into the private sector with comparable compensation, it doesn’t matter to small businesses in particular if the customer is a government or private sector worker so long as they continue to patronize their business. A person out of work or earning a fraction of what they used to is likely to be a less frequent customer or an ex-customer altogether.
As Saturn returns to its natal position in the USA chart (see my previous post for more info) as Uranus and Pluto engage in a challenging alignment to each other and the USA Venus/Jupiter in Cancer, it is time for the USA to make the difficult choices and structural reforms now so the transformation of the U.S. from a consumer to manufacturing and technology driven economy can occur much faster.
While Jupiter expands, Saturn contracts but can bring rich rewards but only if the focus is on the long term. Saturn rules history and looking at this Wall Street Journal graphic tracking the unemployment rate since it was first recorded in 1948 shows that prior to now, the three highest rates of unemployment occurred when Saturn was making challenging alignments to the USA chart. Just like now, two of the three periods occurred when Saturn was transiting Libra.
The unemployment rate was 9% in May 1975 as Saturn conjoined the USA’s natal Sun in Cancer, squaring the USA’s Saturn in Libra. This alignment had been preceded by the transit of Saturn squaring Pluto in 1974 over the USA’s natal Venus/Jupiter conjunction. The recession created a contraction in employment. (While the square between Saturn and Pluto occurred in the same phase of their 38 year cycle during 2009-10, the influence of their energies is only now beginning to recede.)
Prior to the current economic downturn, the last time the unemployment rate was 9.2% was in September 1983 during the previous transit of Saturn in Libra. As Saturn returned to its natal position in the USA chart in October 1981, the unemployment rate was 7.9%. The unemployment rate peaked at 10.1% in June 1983 as Saturn conjoined Pluto in Libra which began their current cycle. At the same time Saturn conjoined Pluto, the two planets squared the USA natal Pluto in Capricorn located in the sector of the USA chart representing the nation’s net worth. Contracting revenues, tight lending conditions, and historically high interest rates (all Saturn/Pluto stuff) was certainly not a conducive environment for companies to hire additional workers.
The expression ”this time is different” accurately describes why current economic conditions contrast with the recoveries that followed previous downturns and recessions. The political polarization in Washington has never been so extreme thanks to the Supreme Court’s 2010 decision enabling plutocrats and corporations to spend unlimited amounts of money on political causes. This secret funding (Pluto in Capricorn) has enabled the most extreme leaders of these causes to build their personal “brand” (Uranus in Aries) at the nation’s expense as Uranus and Pluto make challenging alignments to the USA Venus and Jupiter in Cancer (the sign ruled by the Moon which represents the general public). In addition to the unprecedented political factor, job growth in the U.S. will be slow and the unemployment rate is likely to remain elevated due to the following economic differences:
1. In contrast to recovering from prior economic downturns, recessions, and the Great Depression (which was the last time Uranus in Aries squared Pluto), is the lack of construction spending. We are currently experiencing the fallout from a construction boom in residential and commercial real estate and the accompanying infrastructure building to support new development in previously undeveloped or underdeveloped areas.
2. The Federal Reserve has run out of assets to prop up. The Dow and S&P500 are near their record 2007 highs and the Nasdaq is at its highest level since the recovery from the internet bubble, yet the economy has still not responded.
3. Interest rates prior to the financial crisis were low to begin with vs. the prior Saturn cycle when the Fed raised interest rates to record high levels to combat runaway inflation. The Fed succeeded, and the economy expanded then as the Fed began to reduce rates back to normal levels. All forms of construction were depressed because of high interest rates. As soon as interest rates were lowered, a construction gusher was released.
Dropping rates to almost zero with two rounds of quantitative easing has done little for employment. Cheap money has generated more M&A activity resulting in higher unemployment. Speculation in commodities is putting additional pressure on consumer and business balance sheets which hurts hiring.
4. Consumers’ balance sheets were way too overleveraged going into the recession, so it will take time for them to lower the debt mountain (Pluto in Capricorn for the first time since the nation was founded).
5. Uranus rules technology and the internet. Today’s internet bubble is different from the first time around as the telecom bubble was a key component of the 1990s internet bubble. The installation of fiber optics cable throughout the world at that time reflects my premise based on historical precedence that construction is an essential ingredient to reduce unemployment because it creates a variety of jobs for low, semi, and skilled workers. Laying fiber optic cables begins with low skilled workers digging trenches and begins moving up the skill set through splicers to engineers programming the optical transmission equipment.
While the internet boom of the 1990s was all about selling real goods over the internet and was more in balance with the overall diversity of the labor pool, the current internet boom is primarily focused on selling virtual goods. With the exception of Amazon.com’s (AMZN) distribution centers, the virtual internet has created very few jobs for low and semi-skilled workers as this boom is concentrated among highly skilled techies (Uranus in Aries). Uranus in Aries reflects the fierce competition amongst tech companies for those few individuals who hold the unique skills that can bring their company’s projects to the finish line first.
Saturn is the backbone and Saturn in Libra is the bridge that connects the internet’s physical infrastructure (the server farms) that powers the internet. Although building a server farm requires construction, wiring, and assembly of the servers themselves, the amount of lower skilled workers required to lay fiber optic cable in the telecom boom was far greater.
As I have written several times, the U.S. is experiencing the arduous process of going “back to the future” by transforming the nation’s economic structure from a service economy back to being the leader in manufacturing and technological development. The transition is likely to keep the unemployment rate elevated despite the fact that more jobs are being created since the financial investment required in a manufacturing economy is so much greater than a service economy.
Let’s create a couple of hypothetical examples to illustrate what I mean. A person opens a restaurant which costs the owner of the business $100,000 to make the improvements needed to the space to operate the restaurant. The owner hires 100 people, so each job requires $1,000 investment. In keeping with the energy of Uranus in Aries, a business person who wants to manufacture a new precision electric motor in the U.S. spends $2 million to build a manufacturing plant to hire 100 workers. In this case each job requires $20,000 worth of investment. (These simplistic examples do not consider the investment required to cover any losses while the business is getting off the ground.)
Obviously it takes a lot more investment to create a manufacturing job than a service job. In the age of the internet and its short attention span, it’s become more difficult than ever for people to have the patience for a long term transition.
The USA’s Saturn in Libra is located in the sector of the USA chart representing the federal government and the President. The fundamental factors I’ve outlined would affect whichever political party occupied the White House, and whatever ideology they brought to the table. But these factors are difficult to encapsulate in a talking point – let alone a Tweet.
(1)April was revised lower to +217,000 from +232,000 and May to +25,000 from +54,000.
(2)57,000 private sector jobs less 39,000 government sector jobs equals 18,000 additional hires.
(3)Interestingly, the Democrats have agreed to a level of cuts that closely aligns with Rep. Paul Ryan’s “roadmap” that calls for reducing the deficit by $4.4 trillion over 10 years.
(4)The Moon in Pisces in the sector of employment in Summer Solstice chart reflects fluctuating employment conditions during the summer.
USA: July 4, 1776 5:10 PM LMT Philadelphia, PA
President Obama: Don’t Count On U.S. Paying Debt Interest First
Published by Wallstreetweather.net
Wall Street completely ignored remarks made by President Obama at a White House press conference Wednesday, along with the letters exchanged between Republican Senators and Treasury Secretary Geithner.
Republicans have proposed prioritizing interest on the federal debt above all other government obligations in the event of a debt ceiling impasse. Treasury Secretary Geithner’s response suggested that no previous administration had prioritized one obligation of the U.S. over any other obligation. The Treasury Secretary emphasized that failure to meet any obligation of the U.S. would lead to a downgrade of all U.S. obligations. Geithner cited precedents of both Republican and Democratic administrations in the past and the ability of previous Congresses to always meet the obligations of the U.S.
President Obama cast further doubt on the Republicans’ prioritization proposal. Republicans should understand that if they refuse to raise the debt ceiling that the President will then have full control over the nation’s spending priorities! Republicans should also realize that the closer August 2 looms, the weaker their negotiating position becomes. Wall St. might want to review the press conference as President Obama alluded to the possibility that he might not continue to pay interest on the debt if the debt ceiling is not raised:
“Moreover, which bills are we going to decide to pay? These guys have said, ‘well, maybe we just pay the interest on -- for bondholders’. So are we really going to start paying interest to the Chinese who hold Treasuries and we’re not going to pay folks their Social Security checks? Or we’re not going to pay to veterans for their disability checks? I mean, which bills, which obligations, are we going to say we don’t have to pay?” (bold emphasis mine)
This is the first time the President has issued a warning to Republicans that he might not share their priorities. Yet does it not make sense that a “socialist” president would prioritize “the people” over “the plutocrats”? The Republicans define a tax increase as ANY elimination or reduction in tax subsidies for the wealthy and corporations. Will senior citizens agree with Republicans that continuing subsidies to oil companies are more important than receiving their Social Security benefit?
President Obama emphatically stated he wants a “balanced approach” to deficit reduction that entails both political parties sacrificing some of their “sacred cows.” Republicans take the credit for getting the Democrats to agree to almost $1 trillion in spending cuts over the next 10 years if they agree to remove tax loopholes that certain businesses enjoy to the exclusion of others. But Republicans consider closing these loopholes to be a tax increase unless Democrats agree to make up for the loss of the loopholes with the equivalent amount of tax cuts.
Having become so accustomed to President Obama acquiescing to their demands on taxes, Republicans were somewhat shocked by the bluntness the President displayed at his press conference. And they were even more surprised Thursday by his refusal to meet with the Senate Republican caucus so they could “educate” him on the importance of preserving tax subsidies for their special interests.
Sen. Pat Roberts said Thursday that President Obama "should take a valium and calm down." This is not surprising coming from the party that is the biggest supporter of the pharmaceutical industry. Just like Wall St. created synthetic CDOs because there were not enough subprime mortgages to go around, big pharma has resorted to making up ailments and pushing drugs when in most instances simple and inexpensive remedies are available.
Neptune is the planetary energy of drugs, addictions, and illusions. Republicans and their supporters would like nothing better if President Obama, the Democrats, and the entire nation for that matter was on pharmaceutically manufactured drugs to make them “comfortably numb” so they can continue to erode the nation’s social safety net, gender inequality, and women’s reproductive freedoms.(1) Born with the Sun (the will) in Leo the sign of the leader challenging Neptune in Scorpio, it is not President Obama’s mission in life to be “comfortably numb.” His constant use of the phrase “let me be clear” is his mantra to cut through Neptune’s fog. With his Sun and Neptune in fixed signs, President Obama possesses the determination to break through the illusions that are meant to conceal what is secretly taking place behind the scenes.
Scorpio is ruled by Pluto, reflecting how the wealthy and corporations manipulate the tax code for their own benefit by donating to politicians who will promote their agenda. Republicans claim that U.S. corporate tax rates are amongst the highest in the world, yet they won’t admit that the effective tax rate (after all deductions, expenditures, credits, and subsidies have been taken) that most corporations actually pay is much lower.
Individual wage earners are taxed at rates up to 35%, yet hedge funds are only taxed at 15%. Closing corporate tax loopholes is not about “class warfare” but tax fairness. Notice that Republicans stopped advocating for a flat tax with no deductions years ago because closing tax loopholes would deprive them (and Democrats) of using the tax code as their main source for campaign contributions. Every tax credit, deduction, or subsidy granted to benefit one group of individuals or corporations equates to a tax INCREASE for everyone else! True free market capitalists would demand that ALL tax breaks for businesses and individuals be removed in exchange for much lower tax rates so everyone “pays their fair share” in proportion to their income.(2)
So why hasn’t what President Obama said sent shockwaves through the financial markets? First and foremost, Wall St. believes an agreement to raise the debt ceiling will be worked out before the Treasury runs out of money to pay $23 billion due to Social Security recipients on August 3. And even if an agreement is not reached in time, Wall St. has automatically assumed the holders of U.S. debt will continue receiving interest payments.
Wall St. might even welcome such an impasse, believing President Obama would then acquiesce to the GOP’s demands to drastically cut spending on Medicare, Medicaid, and other “safety net” programs. Wall St. and their corporate friends would like funding for food, environmental, transportation and other health and safety regulations to be drastically cut. More importantly, Wall St. and corporate America want to use the debt ceiling to slay the beast so the government lacks the money to adequately regulate their industries. Republicans can rant all they want about “burdensome regulation,” but let’s remember how well the financial industry performed under what former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan called the “survival instinct.”(3)
Speaking of Greenspan, in an interview on CNBC Thursday, the Republican and Ayn Rand devotee made it clear that closing tax loopholes is not a tax increase:
“I think that the Republicans ought to identify a very significant amount of so-called tax expenditures which in fact are misclassified [by the Republicans]. They are expenditures. They are outlays and many of them are subsidies, and subsidies are not the type of thing that you want for an efficient market system. There are a lot of them.”
Unlike President Obama who believes that in the end Republicans will “do the responsible thing” and agree to close the tax loopholes presumably before the U.S. hits the debt limit, Greenspan thinks an agreement will not be reached by August 2. But like Republicans and Wall St., he is convinced the Treasury Secretary will persuade the President to continue to pay interest on the debt and default on everything else for a short time before “we all come to our senses and resolve the issue.”
Greenspan remarked that “As scary as the exercise has been, it may in the long run have actually helped the U.S.” What Greenspan is essentially saying is that some of the most painful and difficult experiences in life usually end up being the most beneficial in the long run.
Saturn is all about learning life’s lessons, and it is appearing more likely the U.S. will learn its lessons the hard way. Whether at the individual or collective level, we can choose whether those lessons will be learned with ease or difficulty. The most intense time of testing occurs about every 29 years when Saturn returns to its natal position. (See my post, “S&P Downgrades U.S. Outlook to Negative For Not Learning Saturn’s Lessons.”)
Saturn represents boundaries and limitations which are evident in all types of structures. Saturn rules the highest point of a structure, government, and represents the status quo. So in August as Saturn in Libra returns to its natal position in the USA chart, it reflects the USA has reached its spending limit unless Congress reaches agreement to raise the ceiling. Saturn in Libra represents all the financial relationships the government has.
Despite the nation’s innate distrust of governmental authorities as reflected in the USA’s Sun square Saturn, the people calling for a government shutdown do not realize the interconnectivity between government payments and virtually all large employers, public and private, national and local. Beyond the obvious such as student loans and military contractors, virtually every large corporation from technology to healthcare receives a significant portion of their revenue from government entities. Not only the federal government, but also state and local governments will not be able to pay their bills when federal funds to the states come to a screeching halt. Large employers have a choice as to whether they continue to maintain their employment and provide services to government entities or begin to cut employment and sever their ties.
Saturn represents the past; Saturn in Venus-ruled Libra indicates the U.S. has to start paying for the past (running a deficit since 2001). President Obama’s call for a “balanced approach” of spending cuts and closing tax loopholes not only reflects his progressed Sun in Libra seeking to broker a balance as the nation’s leader, but aptly describes Saturn’s need to balance Libra’s scales by making cuts that are equitable.
Pluto rules debt and taxes. Pluto in Saturn-ruled Capricorn indicates the debt mountain has reached its highest peak and revenues are inadequate to cover the nation’s expenditures. Pluto opposing the USA’s natal Jupiter in Cancer for the first time since the nation’s founding indicates the deficit has become so large that decisions must be made to curtail its growth but in a way that does not adversely harm economic growth and the general welfare of the nation since Jupiter is the ruler of the USA chart.(4) Reaching these decisions forces the nation to deal with the very deepest and most divisive ideological and philosophical issues of our time.
Pluto presides over bankruptcy, and Pluto in Capricorn (2008-2024) substantially elevates the potential for sovereign debt defaults. Moody’s warned June 29 it would downgrade the U.S. from its AAA credit rating if the U.S. defaulted on its debt, including bonds issued by Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) along with commercial paper and bonds that were guaranteed by the government under TARP. S&P followed with a warning the following day that it would downgrade the United States from AAA to D if it missed its debt payment on Aug 4.
Since the USA is a Jupiter-ruled nation and Jupiter rules foreign matters, there is no question that such an event would have a huge national and global impact if the U.S. defaulted with no sign in sight of Washington reaching agreement. Venus conjoining Jupiter in the sector of the USA chart representing our relations with other countries indicates the event would definitely reverberate throughout the global financial system.
“Expect the unexpected” is the mantra of Uranus. Uranus in Aries indicates that unexpected shocks and surprises rapidly unfold concerning new developments in an existing situation or something occurs that is completely new altogether. Uranus is currently squaring the USA’s natal Venus and Jupiter, indicating there are more large scale shocks to come affecting the U.S. economy and its financial system in particular.
Many of the surprises that unfold as Uranus transits the USA Venus and Jupiter between now and early 2013 will be quite positive, as new technologies unfold and the U.S. undergoes a manufacturing renaissance. Transitioning to where we need to get to however, is always the most challenging part. Since the financial crisis, fiscal and monetary policies have tried to revive the old economy that was too addicted to financial alchemy and consumer spending through inflating asset prices.
What makes the transits of Saturn, Uranus, and Pluto to the USA chart have even greater impact is that these planets are engaged in challenging relationships to one another in the sky at the same time they impact the U.S. Examining how these planetary influences interact with the luminaries and the other planets can help determine the potential times when an agreement could be reached before August 2 – along with the planetary prospects if the U.S. would no longer be able to meet its obligations.
These planetary alignments occurred for the first time last summer. After falling to lows in early July 2010, the markets sharply rebounded after the Fed signaled it would do a second round of quantitative easing. Markets were also happy that Republicans gained control of the House and many state legislatures in the midterm elections. Expansive Jupiter conjoining Uranus helped fuel the market’s big gains. But that beneficial alignment is over and the Fed is finished expanding its balance sheet.
Eclipses are harbingers of major changes to come. Events and incoming information prior to and in between the eclipses does not begin to be assimilated until the week following the last eclipse. The Solar Eclipse on July 1 at 4:54 AM EDT was the third and final eclipse in the current eclipse cycle that began with June 1 Gemini New Moon. The New Moon in Cancer completes the cross pattern begun by the Sun at the Summer Solstice, squaring Saturn in Libra and Uranus in Aries and opposes Pluto in Capricorn. These planets in action-oriented cardinal signs at the Solar Eclipse which conjoins the U.S. Sun (its identity) indicates the U.S. is about to experience some “firsts.” And defaulting on the debt could be one of them.
The New Moon ruling the sector of the chart representing net worth combined with Mercury (the chart ruler) there in Cancer and Venus in Mercury-ruled Gemini conjoining the Ascendant (rising sign) reflects that financial security is foremost on the nation’s mind. Mercury harmonizing with Uranus (which conjoins the sector representing Congress) indicates the nation expects Congress to work together to reach agreement. Venus harmonizing with Neptune which conjoins and rules the sector representing the Administration describes the majority of the nation tends to resonate more with the President’s position than what the Republicans are advocating. Jupiter in Venus-ruled Taurus in the sector of the chart representing Congress harmonizing with Pluto in Saturn-ruled Capricorn (July 8) and Saturn ruling the sector of the chart representing debt, could be an easier environment for enough stubborn members of Congress to change their mind about not voting to raise the debt ceiling when they realize a no vote could curtail corporate profits.
The challenging alignment between the Sun and Moon in its First Quarter phase July 8 at 2:30 PM EDT (covering the period from July 8-15) stimulates acting on issues that began or reached a new level around the time of the New Moon. The Moon in Venus-ruled Libra conjoins Saturn, exerting pressure on Congress to come to an agreement. Money matters are further emphasized as Venus in Cancer replaces the Sun and Moon on the cardinal cross of action, squaring Saturn and Uranus while opposing Pluto. Venus will exactly oppose Pluto then as Pluto exactly opposes the USA Jupiter for the second time.
Oppositions are akin to a Full Moon which is highly emotional since the light of the Moon makes us aware that something has to give related to these two different yet similar energies. Oppositions and Full Moons represent a culmination point as something has got to give, and since the Democrats have already agreed to make their cuts, it’s now the opposing side’s turn to do so. Venus opposite Pluto represents the dilemma of not enough money coming in to pay past debts. Breaking the standoff requires Republicans to meet the Democrats in the middle by agreeing to close some tax (Pluto) loopholes.
Saturn is moving past its square to Uranus and Pluto now just as the square to Uranus and Pluto reaches its closest approach in early August. The energy of Uranus is particularly pronounced July 7-13 as Uranus appears from Earth’s vantage point to turn retrograde June 9 when the Moon will be in Pluto-ruled Scorpio (until December 10). When the energies of Uranus the great awakener are strong, there is a tendency for sudden reversals. While Uranus turning retrograde could coincide with Republicans beginning to reverse their current stance, it can also motivate the most extreme ideologues of the party to refuse to cooperate.
Uranus retrogrades exactly opposite the USA progressed Moon in Venus-ruled Libra, a further indication the public in general desires a “balanced approach” as President Obama explained as they realize how extreme the Republicans have become. Pluto and Scorpio rule entitlements and it is unlikely that Social Security and Medicare recipients will be out protesting on behalf of corporate jet owners and the oil and gas industries to preserve their tax benefits, eager to have their government benefits temporarily cut or delayed if the debt ceiling is not raised in time.
Uranus is the planet of extremes and uncertainty (or extreme uncertainty). Wall St. and corporate America thought last summer was filled with “uncertainty,” yet the biggest uncertainty of all is if they have lost control over the politicians that they helped to elect! In “May 17, 2011 Scorpio Full Moon Over The Debt Ceiling,” I wrote that business groups were already upset that Congress had not yet reached agreement, but this is what happens when you support candidates with such extreme ideological beliefs.
Uranus is in the sector ruling Congress, squaring Pluto in its “home” sector in the chart for the July 15 Full Moon which occurs at 2:40 AM EDT (influencing the period July 15-29) in the chart set for Washington DC. The Sun in Cancer opposes the Moon in Saturn-ruled Capricorn as Venus squares Saturn. The public (particularly the elderly) are likely to become increasingly concerned if the debt ceiling hasn’t been raised by this point. The Capricorn Full Moon is all about balancing personal (or inner needs) and professional (outer needs) to create greater emotional and physical security. In the case of the debt ceiling, it represents the government’s ability to ensure it has adequate financial resources to provide for the nation’s basic safety and security needs. Venus conjoining the USA Sun and the Sun conjoining the USA Mercury in Cancer indicates President Obama might be engaging in diplomatic efforts to help elevate the concerns of sovereign holders of U.S. debt.
Mars in Mercury-ruled Gemini returns to its natal position in the USA chart July 21 for the first time in two years reinforcing its square to the USA Neptune on July 22. This alignment in the USA chart increases the potential for U.S. military action, increased violence, action over oil, and events that shatter some of America’s biggest myths and illusions such as the “American Dream” of home ownership dependent on government subsidies to keep home prices elevated. This comes on the heels of the July 23 Last Quarter Moon in money sign (Venus-ruled) Taurus. The Taurus Moon harmonizing with Pluto can bring the conscious realization that the internal plumbing of the financial system could spring a major leak if U.S. Treasuries lost even 10% of their value in one day which would amount to about a $1.5 trillion loss based on the $14.29 trillion federal deficit!
Mercury enters its home sign Virgo July 28 and opposes Neptune in Pisces the following day. Financial facts oppose ideological illusion, two opposing energies pervading the atmosphere through September 8 as Mercury turns retrograde on August 2 when the Moon is in Virgo.
During the three weeks three to four times a year that Mercury is retrograde offers an opportunity to slow down the pace of activity and rethink things through. I have written several times before that Mercury rules legislation and since the USA was born with Mercury retrograde, Congress tends to procrastinate on key pieces of legislation and then goes into a frenzy of activity once Mercury is retrograde as they begin to rethink things through. Congress reached agreement on the current fiscal year budget during the last Mercury retrograde cycle on April 8, not long before a midnight deadline with the Moon in Mercury-ruled Gemini and the Sun conjoining Mercury retrograde which always marks the midpoint of Mercury’s retrograde cycle.
Mercury turning retrograde opposite Neptune reflects the true effects of a default would be difficult to quantify. Even the experts are likely to underestimate how interconnected the U.S. government is to global finance and commerce. But as Mars moves into Cancer August 3 and harmonizes with Neptune, the world will find out pretty quickly. Mars in Cancer and the Moon entering Libra then would likely prompt the Fed and other world central banks to assure the markets there is ample liquidity and the Fed would likely temporarily loosen bank capital requirements. The Fed would likely forgo receiving interest payments on its Treasury holdings (since the Fed turns over all profits it earns to the Treasury anyway). The Administration might even succeed in getting China, the UK and other major sovereign creditors to agree to temporarily waive receiving interest payments.
Mars in Cancer until September 18 is a time when people can become highly emotionally charged if they feel their security is threatened in any way. If the Treasury has to scale back or delay Social Security payouts, there is likely going to be a lot of angry seniors! Mercury and Neptune will have retrograded back into Leo and Aquarius respectively when they oppose each other for the second time August 8, as Mars squares Uranus (August 9) and opposes Pluto (August 11). It seems most likely that Congress could reach agreement during the influence of the First Quarter Moon in Scorpio (August 6-12).
The day the Sun returns to its natal position each year is a person’s time to shine as they celebrate their birthday! President Obama celebrates his 50th birthday August 4 and his Sun is strong to begin with since the Sun is in its home sign Leo. His Solar Return will carry the Mercury/Neptune and Mars/Uranus/Pluto energies I’ve described. Mars exactly conjoins his natal Venus which can enhance his popularity with the public as Venus in Leo conjoins his Sun. While the President will be assertive in seeking to broker a compromise whenever possible, he is not likely to be as patient in giving his opponents a lot of time and will be quick to dispel their rhetoric with facts. His actions will be more unpredictable which could throw his opponents off guard as he pushes for more reforms.
So what lessons will the nation learn as it experiences its Saturn return next month? I think America will realize the urgent need for restructuring (Saturn) that radically reforms (Uranus) the tax code (Pluto) with enough revenue to truly cover the expenses the public is demanding. Unfortunately it would likely take a government shutdown for the public to fully understand how their jobs and their states are inextricably tied to the federal government.
Lowering tax rates and eliminating deductions and loopholes will collect more revenue for the government. ALL deductions must be eliminated except for the standard deduction to reflect the minimum cost of living. For example, let’s say the flat tax rate is 20% and the standard deduction is $20,000 with exemptions of $5,000 for each dependent. The tax would be progressive since for a family of four the first $40,000 of income would be tax free and they would pay 20% on the income above that amount. That means the effective tax rate for a family of four earning $80,000 would only be 10%. The higher the family’s income, the closer they come to paying the actual tax rate. If a family of four made $1 million a year, their effective tax rate would be 19.2%. When you get to the level of a family of four making $1 billion a year, their effective tax rate would be 19.9992%. The big difference between having the flat income tax I’ve illustrated vs. keeping the current system is that under the flat tax, the billionaire family would actually pay 20% of their income in taxes because there would be no itemized deductions to reduce what they owe.
Government raising the revenues it needs to provide for the safety and security of the nation through equitable taxation to me is the true definition of the USA Sun in Cancer squaring Saturn in Libra.
(1)To borrow the title of a Pink Floyd song.
(2)President Reagan’s tax reform (with a Democratic Congress no less!) was the closest the U.S. has come to tax reform, yet even he began unraveling his accomplishment before he left office. Politicians who are against even paring back the tax deduction on mortgage interest should consider that when Reagan eliminated the tax deduction on credit card interest, it certainly did not deter people from running up credit card debt at exorbitant interest rates!
(3) Greenspan was a staunch advocate of minimalist regulation, trusting the financial industry’s ability to pretty much self-regulate. He believed the survival instinct would always kick in to prevent firms from taking on too much risk that would jeopardize their survival. And now the world is living with the fallout from that folly.
(4)This is because at the time the USA was born (July 4, 1776 5:10 PM LMT Philadelphia, PA), the sign Sagittarius was the sign rising on the eastern horizon. The rising sign or Ascendant describes the physical characteristics of the nation’s and its outlook. Jupiter/Sagittarius describes the USA is physically large with rich resources. Americans tend to like everything in life to be super-sized; unfortunately many Americans physically reflect Jupiter’s expansive nature. The nation also resonates with the optimistic nature of Sagittarius and Jupiter.
(5)The USA progressed Moon (the public) in Libra transiting the sector of the USA chart ruling the President, together with the fact that President Obama’s natal Venus in Cancer conjoins the USA’s natal Venus factor into why the President’s likeability rating remains consistently high in public opinion polls.
Barack Obama: August 4, 1961 7:24 PM AHST Honolulu, HI
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