WallStreetWeather.net Weekly Forecast For December 26, 2010
Growth, growth, growth. The choir singing Wall Street’s latest holiday carol has grown larger by the hour. The market is driving under the influence of expansive Jupiter which is at home in Pisces, whose motto is “I believe.” As Jupiter and Uranus in Pisces conjoin for the third and final time on January 4, optimism has gotten so overwhelming that all the bears have went into hibernation. Analysts, traders, and individual investors have embraced Pisces message of oneness that the market will continue to soar higher in 2011.
Reaching this level of euphoria did not come cheap. It took QE2’s $600 billion program (and the Fed reinvesting maturing mortgage securities) combined with $858 billion in tax cuts. It’s sacrilegious to mention the d word (as in deficit) now. Just thinking about such things would ruin Pisces’ fantasy. For the time being, the only “Black Swan” out there is a movie about the Pisces-ruled world of ballet.
If you’re wondering if Saturn in Venus-ruled Libra got a bit too carried away with the holiday socializing and forgot that there’s business to attend to, fear not as Mars in Saturn-ruled Capricorn will be squaring off with Saturn in Libra Wednesday. Save the partying until after 8:21 PM EST New Year's Eve as it's time to sober up. There’s a possibility the upward momentum could get temporarily stuck in a snow bank as Mercury in Jupiter-ruled Sagittarius is about to reverse gears and turn direct back to where it was November 22-23. Before that, the Sun conjoining Pluto in Capricorn and the Last Quarter Moon in Libra incorporating all of these energies, could remind us that the debt is still out there.
Correlating with the ultra light end of year holiday volume (and to prove to myself I am capable of writing a short post – LOL), the regular Weekly Forecast format will return next week. (See my posts on the Sagittarius New Moon Cycle and the Winter Solstice for more info.) And check back (or subscribe by email) as I will be posting during the week.
A Rare Lunar Eclipse At The Winter Solstice
Published by WallStreetWeather.net
Winter begins in the northern hemisphere on December 21, 2010 at 6:39 PM EST when the Sun enters Capricorn, an ambitious sign intent on achieving one’s highest goals. The Sun is our life force and represents who we are. The Winter Solstice is the shortest day of the year and celebrates the transformation from the darkness to the rebirth of the Sun’s light as the days grow longer leading up to the June 21 Summer Solstice. Candles and lights symbolize the warmth of the Sun’s light and the triumph of the light over darkness. As I have written, the mythology called Christmas traces its origins to the celebration of the Winter Solstice.This Winter Solstice will be memorable in many ways as the last time a Total Lunar Eclipse in Gemini occurred on the same day as the Winter Solstice was in 1638 (and will not occur again until 2094). The theme of the light emerging out of the darkness is reinforced as the Earth totally blocks the Sun’s light from reaching the coppery red Full Moon at 3:17 AM EST December 21.
The Moon is our emotional barometer which tends to run high at the Full Moon as other people and circumstances enhance our awareness of current conditions which tend to reach the “high alert” or boiling point. The Lunar Eclipse occurring on the day of the Winter Solstice indicates that we must focus our full attention on reviewing and resolving old matters, especially since Gemini’s planetary ruler Mercury is retrograde.
Half of the planets are in mutable signs at the Lunar Eclipse which also represent the ending of one cycle (season) to a new cycle as the Moon moves into its “home” sign Cancer at 4:22 AM EST followed by the Sun at 6:39 PM EST into Capricorn. These are cardinal signs which initiate new ideas and actions that help to resolve old issues so that new endeavors can get underway. Events that occur now will become reactivated when Jupiter (January 18), Uranus (February 27) and Mars (March 31) in Pisces square the Lunar Eclipse.
Expansive Jupiter and innovative Uranus are about to finish up their cycle in Pisces, the final mutable sign that is also the last sign of the zodiac. Pisces is about dissolving boundaries and barriers in order to show that everyone and everything is interconnected. As these two planets conjoin for their final time at the January 4 Solar Eclipse, it will become clearer that what has been operating behind the scenes does not correlate with the public image projected.
Beyond what I wrote about the Lunar Eclipse in the Sagittarius New Moon Cycle forecast, Mercury retrograde in Jupiter-ruled Sagittarius conjoins the Sun and repeats its square to Jupiter (November 25) and Uranus (November 27), indicating that global issues and geopolitics will dominate the news and world leaders attention over the next three months. We could find out what has been overhyped and underreported when Mercury squares Jupiter and Uranus for the third and final time January 10-11. These influences can indicate major pieces of legislation getting revised, repealed, or validated. Legal rulings are more likely to be overturned on appeal.
The Sun and Saturn (Capricorn’s ruler) are the most important influences of the Winter Solstice, and both are involved in challenging alignments to other planets. This indicates that events over the next three months will require that action be taken as situations have reached the point where they can no longer be postponed or “duct taped” over.
I’ve already addressed the influence of the Sun and Mercury squaring Jupiter/Uranus that is particularly emphasized at the Lunar Eclipse. As the Sun enters Capricorn, its conjunction to Pluto is strengthened and so is Mars in Capricorn squaring Saturn in Libra. Capricorn and Saturn rule government and big business, reflecting that the two have always been interconnected.
The Sun conjoining Pluto in Capricorn reflects that while private debt is being wound down, public debt continues to expand uncontrolled. We have the deleveraging of companies and individuals at the same time when sovereign debt is leveraged beyond historic proportions.
When Saturn and Capricorn energies are strong, we are required to do more with less. Pluto in Capricorn forces us to deal with the most difficult issues that can become a matter of life and death. And because these issues concern economic and societal structures, it takes a long time to reap results.
Mars in Capricorn has the ambition and the stamina to surmount any obstacle and delay caused by Saturn in Libra’s indecisiveness. If it takes a little extra time to reach the top of the mountain, so be it. However, the Moon in Cancer opposing Mars and Pluto can indicate that the public has started to lose its tolerance of all the government and corporate corruption that also extends to the judicial system. Mars in Capricorn squaring Saturn in Libra reflects that corporate interests are aggressively working to block the government from enacting regulations that balance consumer interests.
Mars rules the military, and these alignments raise the potential for heightened military action related to nuclear (Pluto) issues such as North Korea. There is also the potential for a military coup that could topple at least one of the many dictatorships in the world.
The planetary influences present at the Winter Solstice indicate that it looks to be a very cold and harsh winter with severe storms that bring heavy wet snow that freezes into ice. The strong Jupiter/Uranus influence only magnifies the size of the storms and their extreme conditions that bring coastal flooding and erosion. Travelers and transporters should be prepared for a winter full of detours, delays and cancellations. This winter may cause many companies to move their manufacturing closer to home.
In the chart for the Winter Solstice set for Washington DC, the Sun, Mercury, Mars, and Pluto are located in the sector representing the nation’s workforce, armed services, and the overall health of the nation. Jupiter rules this sector, indicating that employment and manufacturing activity continues to expand. More troops could be deployed abroad to control borders.
There could be increased incidents of fatal accidents in the workplace that could include another mine collapse. The Moon in Cancer opposite Mars and Pluto could indicate an increase in violent incidents at the workplace and within the military. With the USA Mars in Gemini conjoining the sector of the Solstice chart representing what is hidden behind the scenes, there could be a female whistleblower who reveals information that causes public sentiment to turn against the wars and the amount of troops stationed all over the world.
Mars is where the action and the battles are. With Mars ruling the sector representing the Obama Administration, the President will be engaged in battling enemies at home and abroad. The Administration will have to take a more aggressive stance against his opponents who are trying to undo the healthcare legislation which is viewed as the key to preventing tighter regulation throughout corporate America. The healthcare legislation is a proxy for a bigger agenda. If the opponents of the healthcare legislation can convince the courts to limit the interpretation of the Commerce Clause it will pave the way to undo a vast array of regulations from pollution control to consumer protections of all kinds.
Bad weather along with companies passing through higher costs for food, energy and other consumer staples will likely anger the public but will increase the value of farm land with access to water.
Pluto rules the sector of the chart representing the stock market with Venus in Scorpio conjoining this sector. The Moon is the ruler of the Solstice chart and its harmonious aspect to Venus indicates that investors feel protected by the excess liquidity provided by the nation’s central bank. This excess leverage is reminiscent of the LBO era during the 1980s which ended badly. Only instead of leveraged buyouts, companies are leveraging themselves to buy their own stock and funds are leveraging themselves for short term capital gains in Treasuries and gold.
Pluto indicates that the only thing standing in the way of the market moving higher are the days when the market is worried about sovereign and municipal debt, or geopolitical jitters. However, the difference between the past three months and the next three months is that the market will likely undergo a decline before resuming its upward trajectory with the market likely reaching its highs during the first half of 2011. If a correction does not occur during the winter, it is likely to happen in early spring. Treasury yields will continue to rise which will start to bring out the coupon clippers (investors who buy Treasuries for the yield as opposed to those who trade them for a capital gain).
Financial markets have a greater potential for more pronounced moves, increased volatility or a shift in direction on or around the following dates this winter:
December 21-22, 27, 29-30
January 3-4, 7, 11, 18-19, 26
February 2-4, 7, 9, 14, 17-18, 22, 25, 28
March 2, 4, 9-11, 14-15, 18
WallStreetWeather.net Forecast For Week Of December 12, 2010
As stated in last week’s Forecast and elaborated on in more detail in the Sagittarius New Moon cycle post, the influence of Jupiter conjoining Uranus in Pisces and favorable aspects between Mercury in Capricorn, Venus in Scorpio and Pluto in Capricorn kept the market upward bound. Venus rules banks, and the financial sector was a big gainer last week. Capricorn rules government and Pluto and Scorpio rule debt. The government sold its remaining shares in Citigroup (C), and AIG reached agreement with the government to repay its loan to the NY Fed and the government will begin selling AIG shares in 2011. Meanwhile Bank of America (BAC) restarted some foreclosures.
The indices closed up for the week, with the Nasdaq at 2,637.54 closing at its highest level since December 31, 2007 while the S&P 500 closed at 1,240.39 – a level not seen since September 13, 2008. The indices began the week slightly shook up by remarks made by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in an interview on 60 Minutes. Although Wall Street was overjoyed Monday evening when President Obama announced he had reached a tax cut deal with Republican leaders, both events increased long-term Treasury yields.
I mentioned last week that China dot.com stocks are reprising the internet bubble of the late 1990s, and so is Chinese day trading. Despite the surge in value of most Chinese internet IPOs that debut in New York last week, the Shanghai Composite is down 10% from its November 8 high. A U.S. Embassy cable from March 15, 2007 posted on WikiLeaks quoted Vice Premier Li who will be the next leader of China in 2013, admitting that China’s GDP figures are “man made.” China’s “official” rate of inflation for November was reported yesterday and came in at 5.1% and producer prices at 6.1% which means inflation could be running even higher than reported. Either way, trouble ahead in China translates to trouble ahead for the U.S. stock market. If China doesn’t raise rates to cool things down it will stir inflation fears. If China does raise rates and things start to slow, U.S. multinationals operating in China will experience slower sales growth. YUM! Brands (YUM) said rising wages are increasing the cost of doing business in China and expects its costs in 2011 to increase 10% or higher.
Fridays are ruled by Venus (money; banks). Venus also rules the kidneys. Saturn conjoining Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s progressed Sun in Libra* can increase the potential to develop ailments that can be aggravated from increased work responsibilities. Geithner was born with Mars (inflammation) in Libra which can increase the tendency to face health issues connected to the kidneys. Mercury and Mars had squared Geithner’s natal Mars in Libra this week and as Mercury turned retrograde Friday, Geithner was hospitalized to have a kidney stone removed.
Summary Of This Week’s Influences:
The S&P ending where it closed on Friday, September 13, 2008 coincides with Monday’s First Quarter Moon in Pisces at the same degree as the September 15, 2008 Harvest Full Moon when Lehman Brothers collapsed (see the New Moon post for more info). Hospitals, drugs, prisons, oil, scandals, fraud and suicides are themes that could be prominently in the news now.
While the Moon’s conjunction to Jupiter and Uranus can increase the euphoria, the bubble can get pricked as Mercury conjoins Mars while Mars conjoins Pluto in Capricorn. President Obama announced the tax cut deal the day after Mercury conjoined Pluto. Now as the Senate is scheduled to vote on the bill Monday, Mercury (legislation) retrograde repeats its conjunction to Pluto (taxes).
Tuesdays are ruled by Mars, the planet of action and assertiveness. The Moon will be in Mars-ruled Aries then, squaring Monday’s conjunctions of Mercury and Mars to Pluto. Events can become heated and contentious as there’s a strong desire to exert power and control over others, especially by governments (Capricorn). The FOMC statement will be released at 2:15 PM. It is likely that a more vocal dissent amongst members will emerge from the behind the scenes that will surface at a later date.
A London court hearing is scheduled for WikiLeaks spokesperson and editor-in-chief Julian Assange Tuesday who is being held without bail on charges of having sex with two women after they withdrew their consent which is considered a criminal act under Swedish law. (Interestingly, the charges against Assange were initially brought forward when Mercury last turned retrograde on August 20 and revoked the following day before the investigation was reopened by the Swedish prosecutor September 1.)
Beyond Assange, the whole WikiLeaks issue illustrates the U.S. needs to exert greater control over access to government documents and tighten online security. While the leaks are embarrassing to the U.S., mostly they provide confirmation on issues long suspected such as China’s economic data. The U.S. government and corporate America are also not prepared for cyberattacks which will rapidly increase when Uranus moves into Aries in March as cyberspace (and outer space) become the new battlefields.
Thursdays are ruled by Jupiter, the day the Sun in Jupiter-ruled Sagittarius squares Jupiter in Pisces. Conditions are greatly exaggerated, with a bias tending to the upside. Leaders (Sun) overpromise and overspend as these energies are inflationary. The Sun squaring Uranus (exact Saturday) tends to bring about surprises and unexpected and even defiant behavior from leaders. People born with the Sun square Uranus such as Iran’s Ahmadinejad, North Korea’s Kim Jong-il, and Julian Assange command center stage for their unique, eccentric and rebellious behavior are more likely to be prominent in the news now. (Likewise, there could also be people prominent in the news this week born with the Sun square Jupiter.)
The Moon will be in Venus-ruled Taurus Thursday and afternoon and Friday, the day of the week ruled by Venus. The Moon in Taurus puts banks in focus on quadruple options expiration day.
Putting it all together, the planetary influences this week are likely to result in large moves that take the market unexpectedly beyond the boundaries in either direction, increasing volatility as the current bullish sentiment could hit some turbulence.
Monday, December 13, 2010
Negative.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Negative.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Improving conditions as day progresses.
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Positive trend bias.
Friday, December 17, 2010
Choppy/mixed to positive.
*A mathematical calculation that moves the planets forward in time as a method of prediction.
Timothy Geithner: August 18, 1961 time unknown New York City
Bond Market Expresses a Lack of Confidence in Bernanke, Obama, and the GOP
Published by WallStreetWeather.netA lack of confidence can turn a bad situation into a full blown crisis. A crisis in confidence was one of the contributors to the financial meltdown that began in 2008 when transformative Pluto entered cold and contracting Capricorn. A lack of confidence led to bank runs which took many forms, from depositors pulling out of IndyMac to Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns unable to rollover short term commercial paper. Liquidity in every imaginable form completely froze up.
Given that the Federal Reserve, the FDIC, and the Treasury provided all sorts of liquidity enhancements to break the “ice,” it’s inconceivable why Fed Chairman Bernanke went on “60 Minutes” December 5 sounding like economic conditions could return to those dark days. Bernanke’s extreme nervousness and somber demeanor throughout the interview failed to convey confidence the Fed’s policies are helping the economy to grow. Instead his appearance contributed to the stock market’s weakness the next day and accelerated a selloff in long-term Treasuries that was already underway following the Fed’s $600 billion Treasury purchase program announced at the November 3 FOMC meeting.
Here are the major highlights of Bernanke’s pontifications followed by my comments in parenthesis:
- The recovery is “very close to the border” and “not very far from the level where the economy is not self-sustaining.”
(Despite their rhetoric to the contrary, Wall St. and corporate America have become addicted to government welfare from the Fed and Washington.) - It could take “4 to 5 years” before the unemployment rate is in the more normal range of “5 or 6%.”
(It takes time to recover after the collapse of an economy too dependent on housing and consumer spending. As I have written, the employment situation will continue to slowly improve. Bernanke’s timeframe coincides with the conclusion of the cycle of Uranus in Aries squaring Pluto in Capricorn during 2011-2015 which will usher in a new economic model of innovation that starts producing products here in America.) - A double dip recession “doesn’t seem likely” because “housing is already very weak and can’t get much weaker.”
(Recall that in 2007 Bernanke said the housing problem was “contained” to subprime mortgages! House prices must be compared with the historical average and exclude prices during the bubble years of this decade. Millions of houses that have been neglected will have to sell at substantially lower prices due to the amount of renovation they will require. Much of the housing stock built when Pluto was in Sagittarius does not fit with current and future trends as it is too big, too impractical, and too costly to maintain.) - The purpose of doing QE2 is to lower interest rates.
(Yet the bond market is selling as the Fed is buying. Yields on the benchmark 10 year note have risen 0.33% since last Monday, approaching 0.75% since QE2 was announced.) - The Fed is not “printing money”; money comes from the Fed’s own reserves not the taxpayers. “The amount of currency in circulation is not changing.”
(If banks pulled their excess reserves from the Fed, the Fed will have two choices: either sell its Treasuries at a loss or “print money” so the banks can withdraw their excess reserves.) - QE2 can be expanded if necessary.
(This shows Bernanke is even further out of touch with the new political reality.) - “Inflation is very, very low.”…”This fear of inflation is way overstated.” Bernanke’s defines no inflation as inflation running at “2%.”
(The Fed switched to using the core PCE index from the CPI in 2001. Core PCE excludes food and energy costs and has historically shown a lower rate of inflation than the CPI. Core PCE is biased to goods and services that tend to be deflationary such as electronics. Unlike core CPI, Core PCE automatically assumes that consumers and businesses will substitute the cost of goods and services that are rising for those that are falling. Inflation could be running rampant in the “real world,” but the worry is that the Fed will say their gauge has not reached the danger zone to tighten. Bernanke should have used the opportunity to explain in layperson’s terms how the inflation or lack thereof the Fed sees is different than what average Americans see.) - “100%” sure the Fed can tighten monetary policy in “15 minutes” when the time comes which is “not now.”
(Why are we supposed to believe Bernanke will know when to tighten monetary policy when he admitted during this interview that he didn’t see the crisis coming even though monetary policy must take into account conditions in the overall economy AND the Fed regulates the nation’s largest banks?! Besides, anyone who professes 100% certainty about a future event shows they are not credible.) - Opponents of Fed policy don’t recognize the risk of not acting.
(What kind of message are we getting with the Fed being just as accommodative now as they were at the height of the financial crisis? An advanced signal followed by gradual tightening would convey confidence that economic conditions are improving which would motivate businesses to hire and make purchases before rates began to rise.) - The budget deficit must be cut but not now.
- Clean up the “very inefficient” tax code by closing loopholes and lowering rates.
Transforming the tax code was the only time during the interview Bernanke made any sense! Yet for all the Republican rhetoric bemoaning the billions spent to bail out banks, automakers, AIG, Fannie & Freddie, the stimulus, and the healthcare legislation, the meter on the tax cut deal announced December 6 when Mercury the planet of communication conjoined Pluto (taxes, debt, death) in Capricorn (government) between the Republican leadership and President Obama is (currently) running at $858 billion. That’s more than the individual cost of each one of the previously mentioned initiatives! And unlike the healthcare legislation which does not fully go into effect until 2014 because it had to be “paid for,” the tax cuts and other goodies in this package are exempt from “pay-go” rules.
I’m calling this tax deal George Bush II. Give everything to everyone and have a “painless” compromise. The Republicans have already abandoned their commitments to deficit reduction and in the spirit of George W. Bush, are happy to let Democrats spend on extending unemployment benefits and other initiatives as long as they can tax cut too. In any case, the unemployment extension is not going to help the so-called “99ers” who are about to or have already exhausted their benefit. Only the unemployed who have exhausted their state benefits could benefit - if they reside in one of the states with the highest levels of unemployment.
Just like you can’t expect a different result from doing the same thing multiple times, we should not expect any more jobs to be created than during the Bush presidency. Republicans have had 7+ years and nothing to show for the tinkle down tax cuts.
There are different types of wealth effects, and the Fed refuses to recognize that not all wealth effects are created equal, generating the same economic impact. Bernanke’s rant about the value of increasing stock prices is almost irrelevant to overall economic growth.
Bernanke and the politicians of both parties are wrong to believe that the wealth effect generated by monetary and fiscal policies will generate jobs. Rock bottom interest rates and tax cuts generate a wealth effect quite different than the one created using housing as it will not cause the mass populace to spend more and boost the economy. Asset price inflation is yet another facet of the economy that the Fed conveniently chooses to ignore in calculating inflation.
With the USA’s natal Mercury retrograde (see below) in the sector of the chart that rules taxes and debt opposing Pluto in Capricorn in the sector representing the nation’s wealth and the economy, the Federal Reserve believes low interest rates are the key to generating the wealth effect. Mercury retrograde reflects the constant tinkering and revisions to the tax code that create temporary tax cuts and provisions that change from year to year. Mercury retrograde in Cancer (real estate) describes the sacred cows of the tax code such as the mortgage interest deduction and all kinds of subsidies and tax breaks for the agricultural industry. Mercury’s opposition to Pluto in the sector of wealth reflects that the wealthiest individuals and corporations are the biggest beneficiaries of the tax code. (Pluto in the sector of money indicates that from the beginning, America has always been a debtor nation.)
The wealthy use tax cuts to spend on assets to generate more wealth for themselves. This might increase the sales of luxury automobiles for example, but will not increase the sales of mass market automobiles which are needed to generate more jobs. Since the poor spend their money on small ticket items, extending unemployment compensation and a small reduction in employee payroll taxes is not going to help boost the purchase of big ticket labor intensive products such as automobiles and washing machines.
Monetary policy is allowing companies to refinance and borrow cheaply. Companies are hoarding cash at unprecedented levels and are borrowing to repurchase their shares. Fundamentals have not kept up with the level of stock prices. The comparison between earnings return and current interest rates is superficial because current interest rates are not sustainable. Think of it as a commercial building that is increasing in value but not generating more rent. The result is asset inflation without an increase in jobs.
Bernanke’s TV appearance emphasizing how bad things are is in complete opposition to his objective of getting Americans to purchase big ticket labor intensive products and encourage companies to hire. Both political parties are selling despair for their own gain.
What America needs now is confidence, not fear emanating from the leaders of the Fed and the federal government. There is a reason why leaders and confidence are both ruled by the Sun. The Sun is our life force that we cannot live without. People tend to feel much more upbeat and energetic on a sunny day than a cloudy day.
A sunny disposition is a confident disposition. Like the rays of the Sun extending out, leaders who radiate confidence help to increase the level of confidence amongst the public which can make even the most difficult challenges seem surmountable. Regardless of your political views, think about which leader conveyed more confidence based solely on his demeanor – Jimmy Carter or Ronald Reagan?
Confident leaders are strong-willed leaders who can compromise yet still achieve their objectives. Reagan was able to achieve tax reform with a Democrat-controlled Congress. The only thing both parties seemed to agree on after he left office was rapidly unraveling those reforms.
President Obama described tax cuts for the wealthy as the “holy grail” for Republicans. He could have easily used that leverage to get Republicans to agree to making the middle class tax cuts permanent while allowing the tax cuts for the wealthy to expire at the end of 2012. Republicans would have agreed to this since they believe they will defeat Obama in 2012 and could then make the wealthy tax cuts permanent. Perhaps the President is still adjusting to his progressed Sun moving into Libra, expressing too much of this sign’s need to please and compromise away one’s core principles.
When Mercury the messenger is retrograde, events and people from the past return to the spotlight. As Mercury turned retrograde Friday, Bill Clinton was back at the White House conducting a press briefing as if he was still the President. Seeing President Obama standing next to him sent a clear message that Obama lacks confidence in his ability to lead if he has to get the former president to “sell” the deal to Democrats on his behalf.
Mercury turned retrograde exactly opposite the USA natal Jupiter in Cancer. Taken together with Pluto also opposing the USA Jupiter, Washington seems to have a literal interpretation that these influences mean it’s okay to increase the federal deficit to Jupiter-sized proportions.
Not even the government’s announcement Friday that the budget deficit in November at $150.4 billion was the highest on record, gave Washington or even Wall Street pause. All these factors are creating a loss of confidence in the bond market that it can continue to make money speculating on Treasuries. Near zero interest and QE2 combined with Washington’s lack of fiscal restraint tells the bond market that inflation and an oversupply of bonds is on the way.
I wrote back in June that “the bond bubble could explode later this summer,” reiterating in September “that Treasury yields could accelerate their creep up.” Instead, speculators believed they could make money trading Treasuries ahead of the Fed’s November 3 announcement. As bond speculators exit, the only buyers left will be people who purchase Treasuries to earn interest. But long-term yields will have to go higher to attract these buyers. If leveraged players (hedge funds) expect more risk in capital gains or a potential capital loss, they will exit before wiping out their capital.
Oppositions represent opposing forces, and the December 6 New Moon opposing the Federal Reserve’s natal Saturn reflects the results of a Bloomberg national poll conducted December 4-7 (meaning some people would have seen Bernanke on 60 Minutes), where the majority of respondents want the Fed to be held more accountable. (54% of those surveyed do not believe that QE2 will help the economy.) The transits of Jupiter, Saturn, and Uranus affecting the Fed’s chart during 2011 will certainly force Bernanke and the Fed to be more accountable and transparent (Jupiter) as the Fed’s independence (Uranus) is vulnerable as Saturn’s influence can indicate Congress takes steps to rein in its authority.
Rep. Ron Paul the author of the book “End the Fed,” will become chairman of the House monetary policy subcommittee that oversees the Federal Reserve. Although it is highly unlikely that Rep. Paul will ever get his wish, it should signal to Wall Street to start weaning themselves of their addiction to more monetary stimulus. With half of the planets moving into Aries in early April, there might be more than the atmosphere heating up as Treasury buyers demand higher yields to compensate for monetary and fiscal policy excesses. With the exception of a few flight to safety runs in December, January, and March, long-term yields will continue to slowly rise.
WallStreetWeather.net Forecast For Week of December 5, 2010
Jupiter and Uranus are the dominant influences now as they approach exact conjunction on January 4. Their energies are reinforced with Jupiter the planetary ruler of the Sagittarius New Moon and Uranus turning direct now. Jupiter will then move into Aries on January 22 for the first time* since the dot.com bubble.
One Jupiter cycle later the only thing that has changed is that now it’s the China dot.com bubble as two Chinese companies – internet video site Youku (YOKU) and online bookseller Dangdang (DANG) IPO on the Nasdaq this week. It seemes that most people are under the illusion that China’s economy is immune to asset price bubbles, stagflation and a decline in exports to the U.S. over time.
While the Jupiter/Uranus influence is providing a big boost to a market tilted to the upside and the aspects this week are conducive to news and agreements that for the most part are likely to be viewed favorably by the market, they are offset by other influences that could create choppy to volatile conditions at least intraday.
The Moon in Sagittarius Monday can help to keep sentiment skewed to the upside. Caution about sovereign debt and economic contraction are likely to return when the Moon is in Saturn-ruled Capricorn Tuesday and Wednesday and Mars enters Capricorn Tuesday evening. Now the heat is on for governments and the Federal Reserve to placate the market as Mars reactivates the energies of the challenging planetary alignments of late spring and early summer that pushed the major indices to their lowest levels of the year. The Moon will be in Uranus-ruled Aquarius Thursday and Friday when Mercury turns retrograde Friday morning (see the New Moon post) which could bring buzz about tech mergers. The combination of Mercury retrograde and the Moon in Aquarius can result in erratic and irrational market behavior. There could be glitches in data feeds.
Monday, December 6, 2010
Negative before seesawing between Choppy/mixed to positive.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Negative conditions improve to close mixed.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Positive.
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Negative.
Friday, December 10, 2010
Improving conditions as day progresses.
*Jupiter was briefly in Aries June 6 – September 9, 2010.
Sagittarius New Moon Cycle: December 5, 2010 – January 3, 2011
Published by WallStreetWeather.net
The word month is derived from the Moon. The new month actually begins when the Sun and Moon conjoin at the New Moon, a time of new beginnings. This post examines the major planetary influences from a general, economic, and geopolitical perspective unfolding during the next lunar month. Heightened military alert, together with lack of progress in sovereign debt could potentially lead to increased market turbulence during this cycle.This month’s New Moon occurs on December 5 at 12:35 PM EST in Sagittarius, a sign ruled by Jupiter. Sagittarius and Jupiter help us to expand our horizons to discover more about ourselves, the world, and the universe. “The truth is out there”(1) and the eternal quest of Sagittarius is to help each person discover their own truth that can be found beneath the hypocrisy and dogma this sign is also known for. Traveling, learning, and exploring the perennial philosophy (the ageless wisdom that transcends all religions), are ways that help to broaden our perspective. Sagittarius the archer aims high and Jupiter’s optimistic outlook and sense of humor(2) can make it easier to cope with life’s most challenging situations.
Foreign relations and trade, publishing, universities, the Courts, ethics, politics and religion are all part of Sagittarius and Jupiter’s domain. Sagittarius and Jupiter tend to be a bullish influence in the markets as they represent growth and expansion. But since their expansion extends to everything their energy comes into contact with, this can be exaggerated and overdone to the point of excess which can result in large rallies as well as large declines.
This year’s Sagittarius New Moon cycle is particularly potent as Jupiter is in Pisces, the other sign that Jupiter traditionally rules,(3) increasing Jupiter’s strength to boost global markets. Sharply increasing the large market moves has been the close alignment of Jupiter and Uranus in Pisces since September that will culminate at the Capricorn Solar Eclipse on January 4, 2011.(4) The combination of these two planetary energies in Pisces the sign of bubbles, inflates asset prices to levels well beyond fundamentals as rebellious Uranus likes to surprise by breaking through resistance levels. Jupiter/Uranus will quickly react to any disappointment by breaking through support levels before sharply reversing again until the next panic. Since Jupiter represents things on a global scale, optimism or panic quickly reverberates throughout the world.
Uranus rules technology, bringing revolution and innovation to what it connects with. The internet was born in 1969 when Jupiter conjoined Uranus in Libra.(5) Now Jupiter conjoining Uranus in Pisces is revolutionizing the publishing industry as e-readers and multiple publishing platforms are blossoming. Pisces shows how everyone and everything is interconnected, and the best example of the transit of Uranus in Pisces (2003-2011) is the explosion of the internet to do almost everything and the gadgets that enable us to have the internet with us at all times.
Pisces rules what is going on behind the scenes, as well as films. People use the internet and don’t really give much thought to the huge amount of bandwidth being used and the backbone (that would be Saturn) required to accommodate people downloading full length high definition movies. Netflix (NFLX) believes its future lies in streaming movies over the internet, but has left undetermined who would be responsible for paying for the infrastructure (Saturn) required to make it a reality for large groups of people. The government and the Courts will have to sort out the conflicting interests of consumers, internet providers, and internet companies over the issue of net neutrality. The cost of internet speed is going to become a major issue when Jupiter (January 22) followed by Uranus (March 11) enter Aries.
The energies of Uranus in Pisces are particularly potent now as Uranus turns direct a few hours after the New Moon from being retrograde since July 5. Expect the unexpected! This also occurred at the November 27, 2008 New Moon.(6) The combination of Sagittarius and Jupiter conjoining Uranus at the New Moon is a time to be bold and innovative rather than follow the crowd! Uranus turning direct the day of the Jupiter-ruled New Moon serves to intensify the energies of the Jupiter/Uranus conjunction in Pisces. Sagittarius/Jupiter and Uranus are independent and freedom loving energies as exploration leads to new discoveries. Strong Uranus energies December 3-8 can bring greater potential for explosions and explosive situations, power outages, and “freaky” conditions; earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, high winds, tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, and flash floods.
With all the planets in direct motion until December 10, there’s not a lot of time with this New Moon cycle to start something new. The Sagittarius New Moon helps to get you enthused and revved up to accomplish what you must get done by year end, saving the rest until the Capricorn New Moon cycle beginning January 4.
I mentioned that Saturn is the backbone, providing the structure and discipline required for sustainability if Sagittarius and Jupiter’s lofty plans are to ultimately succeed. The New Moon favorably aspecting Saturn in Libra (exact December 7) offers an opportunity to develop new business and enhance you and your company’s reputation as a leader in your field. Benefits can come through alliances and partnerships with others, particularly with people and companies dealt with in the past.
We’ve already experienced a good deal of Sagittarius energy with assertive Mars in Sagittarius since October 28, together with Mercury the planetary energy of communication and movement in Sagittarius November 8-30. Events have heated up on the global stage since Mercury and Mars conjoined November 20 as first Mercury squared Jupiter (November 25) and then Uranus (November 27), followed by Mars squaring Jupiter (November 29) and Uranus (December 3).
The planetary influences at the time of the New Moon influence the entire lunar cycle. With five planets in mutable signs, (7) the shocking and unexpected energies of Uranus shifting direction, and Mercury at a virtual standstill as it prepares to turn retrograde December 10, it is crucial to maintain a flexible attitude and a flexible schedule as conditions are rapidly changing. Mars, Jupiter, Uranus and the December 21 Lunar Eclipse at the end of mutable signs indicates one cycle is ending and another about to begin.
The New Moon occurs as Saturn returns to its natal position in the USA chart for the first time since October 1981, an influence between now through September 2011. A Saturn return occurs about every 29.5 years. The Saturn return can be a time to reap rewards if lessons from past mistakes were learned and difficult choices made to build a solid foundation that is sustainable to last the test of time.
Unfortunately the USA has once again chosen to sacrifice long term gain for short term solutions. The first pass of the USA’s Saturn return occurred on December 3 – the day that the bipartisan National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform (how Saturn is that!) voted 11-7 in favor of the recommendations but the Commission needed to get 14 votes to be taken up by the next Congress. The Commission’s recommendations were a good start to the work that needs to be done, and the fact that the nation is not willing to make these choices means things are not going to get easier going forward.
Saturn in Libra is in the sector of the USA chart representing the nation’s reputation and squares the USA Sun (the nation’s identity) in Cancer in the sector of allies and open enemies, reflecting America’s reputation as the world’s policeman. If we’d learned the lessons of Vietnam, we wouldn’t still be in Afghanistan and Iraq where we’ve spent far more than all the bailouts and stimulus combined! And there’s never any money to revamp our nation’s decaying and outdated infrastructure because the excuse is it would take too much time (Saturn). Good times, bad times, it never seems to be the right time to tackle any of the big structural issues our society faces.
The Federal Reserve is also affected by the New Moon which opposes the Fed’s natal Saturn in Gemini, showing that the central bank did not learn from its mistakes whose origins emanate from former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan. Fed Chairman Bernanke has expanded Greenspan’s bubble now, clean up later philosophy when the Fed came to the rescue and mopped up after the housing bubble burst that they helped create after the fall of the dot.com bubble. Now monetary policy has inflated global asset prices which will once again end badly.
The USA is a Jupiter-ruled nation as Sagittarius was the sign rising on the eastern horizon (Ascendant) when the nation was born. The USA’s Saturn return together with the New Moon conjoining the USA Ascendant indicates this New Moon cycle is an important one, particularly in terms of the nation’s long term goals and objectives and America’s place on the global stage. These transits indicate that the government and the nation face this together as a partnership with everyone needing to do their part by making some kind of sacrifice. With Saturn, less is more. Jupiter is excess. With Sagittarius rising, the nation is oversized and must slim down in all areas for the nation’s long term fiscal and physical health.
In the chart for the New Moon set for Washington DC, the Sun and Moon are conjoined in the sector of the chart naturally ruled by Sagittarius, reinforcing that foreign relations and trade are likely to be in the forefront during the next month. Active duty troops could be moving from their current locations to new global hot spots.
The Moon ruling the sector representing the stock market indicates wildly fluctuating conditions with sentiment especially influenced by events occurring abroad along with legal rulings. The New Moon squares China’s natal Saturn in Virgo which will bring price controls to rein in high inflation and is likely to bring more tightening by the regulators as the month progresses.
The Sun ruling the sector representing employment and manufacturing indicate that conditions are slowly improving. Government spending is on the rise; aspects between Mercury, Venus (money; banks) and Pluto (debt; taxes) make it likely that Congress and the Administration will reach agreement on extending the Bush tax cuts.
With Pisces on the Ascendant and its ruler Neptune in the sector of covert and behind the scenes activities, the nation is going to wake up to a lot more “leaks.” Jupiter conjoining Uranus indicates that although the nation’s outlook is hopeful, there could be anger over more resources being spent abroad as well as Washington’s legislative priorities.
I have explained the implications of the USA’s Saturn return. If Saturn’s lessons are tough, the goal of Pluto in Saturn-ruled Capricorn (2008-2024) is to destroy what is corrupt and no longer working efficiently so economic and societal structures (Capricorn/Saturn) can be transformed.
Mercury conjoins Pluto in Capricorn at the New Moon (and again December 13 and January 18), bringing more news of government and corporate corruption, as well as talk of sovereign debt. Mars enters ambitious Capricorn December 7 until January 15, adding urgency to act without delay. Favorable aspects between Venus in Pluto-ruled Scorpio to Pluto (December 8) and Mercury and Venus (December 10) could bring announcements of government regulators reaching agreement over implementing on currency derivative regulation.
Mercury is retrograde December 10-30, increasing the potential for communication snafus and travel delays and disruptions. The most important things to keep in mind are:
- Maintain a flexible schedule and a flexible outlook! Confirm all appointments and reservations.
- Put the re prefix in front of everything you do: review, repair, restore, reconnect, etc.
- Frequently backup data and charge devices. Be prepared for power outages.
- Postpone major purchases including electronic devices if possible until January. Keep receipts and original packing for all purchases in case it must be returned. (Verify the store’s return policy before making a purchase.)
- Financial markets could reverse their current trend around this time or when the Sun conjoins Mercury December 19, and again after Mercury turns direct. It can be hard to get a clear sense of where the market is headed during the time Mercury is retrograde.
Mercury turning retrograde exactly opposite the USA natal Jupiter in Cancer at the same time Pluto is about to oppose it for the first time in the nation’s history conveys an urgent message that the nation must reverse course by getting a grip on excess spending now rather than continuing to push the tough decisions into a “future” that never arrives. Neither party is showing they have any backbone (Saturn) to carry out what they profess. Events could occur that further showcase the USA’s hypocrisy on multiple fronts. These transits reflect how overcommitted the USA is on too many fronts overseas that it can no longer afford.
What happens now will accelerate around January 17 when Mercury and Pluto will exactly oppose the USA Jupiter as Mercury conjoins Pluto for the third and final time in its current cycle.
The December 13 First Quarter Moon occurs at 8:59 AM EST. The midpoint between the New and Full Moon is known as the “crisis in action”(8) phase of the cycle as there’s an sense of urgency to act before events culminate at the Full Moon.
The Sun in Sagittarius squaring the Moon in Pisces as both aspect Jupiter (December 16) and Uranus (December 18) can describe leaders and rebels engaging in covert activities, antsy to assert their dogma on the global stage. Things could really heat up geopolitically as Mercury conjoins Mars and both planets conjoin Pluto. A show of military force to assert control over another territory could result in retaliation. Nuclear capabilities/weapons and threats from Iran and North Korea are at issue with Pluto strongly aspected. Alternatively, these energies could indicate the Senate ratifying the START treaty. Contagion fears over sovereign debt are likely to resurface with these energies which are reinforced as Mars conjoins the June 26 Lunar Eclipse followed by Pluto on December 16.
This is likely to be a turbulent time in financial markets despite all the efforts by Wall Street’s patron saint Ben Bernanke as he celebrates his 57th birthday today on the day before the FOMC meeting. The Moon in Pisces squares the USA Mars and Neptune, increasing the potential for heightened military action. The Pisces Moon impacting the USA Mars/Neptune has also been associated with instigating financial panics in the past such as when Lehman Brothers collapsed.
Besides the changeable nature of Mercury retrograde which shifts back into Sagittarius December 18 (until January 13), the week leading up to an eclipse is not a favorable time to make important decisions as the light being blocked symbolically represents that we do not have all the information we need to make a sound decision. Eclipses are harbingers of change, and things tend to be seen in a whole new light beginning a week after the eclipses have passed (mid January).
Mercury rules the Gemini Total Lunar Eclipse that occurs on December 21 at 3:13 AM EST, the same day as the Winter Solstice (which I will cover in a separate post). A Lunar Eclipse is a supercharged Full Moon and this one is jam-packed as the eclipse opposes Mercury and Pluto and squares the Jupiter/Uranus conjunction. This is a time of endings and to revisit people, places, and issues from the past in order to resolve them and be ready to move forward with new plans after the January 4 Solar Eclipse which we get a preview of when Mars conjoins the eclipse degree on December 25.
Any geopolitical turmoil that erupted at the First Quarter Moon could reach a crisis point now. The ancients believed that areas in the path of the eclipse would face challenging circumstances over the next six months. The eclipse will be visible in North and South America, northern Europe, and conclude at sunset in northeastern Asia and Japan.
The Lunar Eclipse and the Winter Solstice conjoins the NYSE’s progressed Sun in Capricorn, squares the Nasdaq’s natal Pluto and squares the USA’s progressed (9) Moon in Mercury-ruled Virgo (employment; armed forces; healthcare).
Venus in Pluto-ruled Scorpio returns to the degree it turned retrograde on October 8 which could refocus on issues prevalent then such as the problems with foreclosure documentation. With the 2001 Bush tax cut Mercury retrograde in Gemini and the 2003 tax cut Saturn in Gemini conjoining the eclipse which occurs in the sector representing taxes in the chart for the eclipse set for Washington DC, it is likely that the Bush tax cuts will be renewed before year end.
North and South Korea are in the spotlight as the eclipse opposes North Korea’s progressed Jupiter and Kim Jong-il’s natal Mars/Neptune square (enemies attract enemies with similar planetary patterns), Kim Jong-un’s natal Neptune in Sagittarius, and conjoins South Korea’s natal Uranus, and squares the Armistice Agreement’s progressed Sun in Virgo, along with progressed Mercury when the Korean War began. The eclipse opposes China’s natal Uranus in Cancer the same day Pluto opposes it which could bring social unrest.
The Last Quarter Moon in Libra December 27 at 11:18 PM occurs as the Moon squares Mars and conjoins Saturn, followed by Mars squaring Saturn December 29. Together with Mercury retrograde, these energies can bring delays, frustrations and roadblocks. Harsh weather conditions could cause accidents and the potential for a bridge to collapse. Tense conditions start to ease a bit as Mercury turns direct the following day.
The Moon enters Sagittarius at 8:21 PM EST on New Year’s Eve. With the Moon in this optimistic and enthusiastic sign making no major aspects to the other planets on New Year’s Day, 2011 is what you choose to make it.
(1) This was the motto of the TV series “The X-Files.”
(2) The word jovial emanates from Jupiter.
(3) Neptune became the modern ruler of Pisces after its discovery in 1846.
(4) Jupiter and Uranus conjoin about every 14 years. They first conjoined on June 8 at the beginning of Aries and on September 18 in Pisces.
(5) Jupiter was exactly conjoining Uranus when Apollo 11 landed on the Moon, the ultimate expression of using technology (Uranus) to travel to places at a distance (Jupiter) to expand our horizons. Rather than exceeding this tremendous achievement that united the nation and the world, three Jupiter/Uranus cycles later NASA touts microbes living on arsenic in Mono Lake California.
(6) Planets do not really move backwards in the sky, but appear to from Earth’s vantage point.
(7) The Sun and Moon are luminaries but are delineated as “planets.” The mutable signs are Gemini, Sagittarius, and Pisces.
(8) As described by Dane Rudhyar in “The Lunation Cycle.”
(9) A mathematical calculation that moves the planets forward in time as a method of prediction.
USA: July 4, 1776 5:10 PM Philadelphia, PA
Bush Tax Cut #1: June 7, 2001
Bush Tax Cut #2: May 28, 2003