WallStreetWeather.net Forecast For Week Of October 31, 2010: "Trick or Treat Edition"

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Today is Halloween, a modern twist on ancient celebrations that occur around this time of the year when the Sun (the life force) is transiting Pluto-ruled Scorpio, the sign of death and transformation. It is believed that the veil separating the living and the dead is lifted to help us come to understand the interconnectedness between the two worlds.

Of course Halloween is all about all kinds of terrifying creatures, ghosts and zombies (the living dead) roaming around. And what’s truly “unbelievably terrifying” to quote GMO’s Jeremy Grantham’s “Night of the Living Fed” is that every voting member of the FOMC has become a zombie except Thomas Hoenig.

The Fed acts like zombies because they continue to do the same thing over and over again. Fed Chairman Bernanke’s mentor is “Chief Zombie” Alan Greenspan who taught him that when one bubble bursts, another one needs to be conjured to create the “wealth effect.” In addition to promising near zero interest rates for an “extended period,” the Fed talks of the treats of QE2 and inflation targeting, so that all that debt (Scorpio/Pluto) left over from when the last bubble burst just over one Mars cycle (2 years) ago becomes cheaper to service.

The Fed wants investors to become zombies like them, under the illusion that reflating asset prices makes investors feel wealthier so they’re more likely to spend and employers are more likely to hire and grow their businesses. As PIMCO’s Bill Gross writes in his latest Investment Outlook: “The Fed, on Wednesday, however, will decide that it is better to keep the patient on life support with an adrenaline injection and a following morphine drip than to risk its demise and ultimate rebirth in another form.”

By trying to spare the economy from Pluto/Scorpio’s death and dying process that will take place one way or another over anyway, the Fed is only prolonging the pain at best and at worst runs the risk of keeping the economy in a zombie-like state for the next several years. Wall St. knows another round of quantitative easing won’t work, but they’ve become too addicted to the Fed’s drugs. That’s why the lead story in Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal hinting that QE2 could be much less than what the market was anticipating was enough to give the market pause. Imagine how the market might react if Bernanke was bluffing.

Illusions, bubbles, drugs, and addictions are part of Neptune’s domain. Neptune has appeared from Earth’s vantage point to be moving retrograde in the sky since May 31. Neptune’s energies are more pronounced November 2-11 as the planet appears to be stationary in the sky as it turns direct November 7. When Neptune’s energies are prominent, there is an opportunity to awaken from the illusion that everything is separate rather than interconnected. The market has been eagerly anticipating the results of the Midterm elections Tuesday and the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Yet in true Neptunian fashion, the outcomes of both of these events might be somewhat confusing and raise more questions than they answer.

Consensus estimates for Friday’s October Employment report keeps the unemployment rate unchanged at 9.6% with a gain of 60,000 jobs. Although I think the report will come in slightly better than expected together with September’s figures revised to show a loss of less than 95,000 jobs, the market’s reaction is not likely to be favorable, especially in the bond market.

Monday, November 1, 2010
Positive.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Positive trend bias but potential for intraday reversal.

Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Market strongest early, then starts losing steam as day progresses; closes mixed to negative.

Thursday, November 4, 2010
Negative.

Friday, November 5, 2010
Negative conditions improve as day progresses, turning positive by the close.

WallStreetWeather.net Forecast For Week Of October 24, 2010

Summary Of Last Week’s Influences:
The major indices closed higher for the third consecutive week. Except for a one day reversal on Tuesday which occurred on the 23rd anniversary of the 1987 crash, the indices continued to try to break through their April 26, 2010 highs. (On Thursday the Dow reached an intraday high that exceeded its April 26 closing price.)

As described in a prior post, there is a strong tendency for markets to at least temporarily reverse when Venus turns retrograde, and I thought the market would take a temporary break when Venus turned retrograde October 8 before resuming its climb higher. Although the Sun conjoining Venus October 28 can represent a turning point in the Venus retrograde cycle, it is more likely the market will continue to climb higher.

In last week’s Forecast I wrote that commodities mined underground could be subject to a correction. While far from a correction, gold declined more than 3% last week. Mercury making a challenging aspect to Uranus in Pisces Tuesday brought currency reversals as the dollar strengthened against the pound, euro, Swiss franc, and the Australian and Canadian dollar following China’s unexpected interest rate hike. In true Uranus fashion, markets reversed back to their speculative positions the following day as the Sun formed the same aspect to Uranus.

The week concluded with the finance ministers and central bankers of the G20 nations meeting in South Korea who in their communiqué agreed in theory to “refrain from competitive devaluation of their currencies” but could not reach agreement for setting specific targets to even out currency imbalances. While the US pushes China to let the yuan appreciate, The New York Times reports that “several officials expressed concerns” about the Fed weakening the dollar by stimulating growth through current monetary policy and expectations of QE2 and inflation targeting.

Summary Of This Week’s Influences:
The Sun moved into Scorpio yesterday until November 23, joining Mercury, Venus, and Mars. Speculation and news tends to revolve around what actions leaders will take related to Scorpio issues such as debt, insurance, taxes and corporate welfare that particularly affect the value of bonds.

Venus represents assets and self-worth (through its rulership of Taurus) and alliances/ partnerships (through its rulership of Libra). Venus in Taurus’ opposite sign Scorpio represents shared assets together with liabilities. Borrowing can be a means to acquire more assets, or the liabilities can become so great they bankrupt. With Venus in Scorpio financial gains depend upon the generosity of someone else whether it is a loan, subsidy, inheritance, or speculating in anticipation that the nation’s central bank (Sun/Venus) will engage in another round of quantitative easing.

Treasuries – especially long-dated maturities – are definitely in a bubble. Speculators buying the 30 year bond have no intention of holding to maturity but are counting on making a profit by selling to the Fed. With Scorpio’s planetary ruler Pluto in Capricorn the sign of government since 2008, financial markets have become dependent upon actual and anticipated fiscal and monetary policies to continue moving higher.

With Mercury conjoining Venus and the Sun conjoining Venus retrograde this week, the market is not in the mood to allow any unpleasant thoughts creep in that could weaken investor confidence.

Mercury the planetary energy of communication, commerce, and movement conjoins Venus (money/banking) as the stock market opens Monday, and the Moon (sentiment) will be in Mercury-ruled Gemini until mid afternoon Wednesday. Mercury conjoining Venus can represent making money through currency trading. Beyond markets reacting to the G-20’s communiqué, copper, banks, mortgages, bonds, and merger announcements are ruled by Venus and Scorpio that could be on investors’ minds now.

The Moon will be in its home sign Cancer from 3:14 PM Wednesday through Friday evening, harmonizing with the Mercury/Sun/Venus influences. The Moon rules food and liquids; Venus rules sweets and sugar, which could put the market on a “sugar high” Thursday as the Sun conjoins Venus, the halfway point of the Venus retrograde cycle that began October 8 until Venus turns direct November 18.

The Sun conjoining Venus retrograde occurs when Venus is at its closest approach to Earth. This is the midpoint in the Sun/Venus cycle that began on January 11. Raw sugar reached its highest price in 29 years (a Saturn cycle) following the alignment. When a planet from Earth’s vantage point appears to be moving backwards in the sky it symbolizes a time to reexamine past matters that the retrograde planet rules.

The Sun conjoined Venus in Saturn-ruled Capricorn and now the Sun conjoins Venus retrograde in Pluto ruled Scorpio, so with Pluto in Capricorn and Capricorn’s ruler Saturn in Venus-ruled Libra it is not surprising that we’re almost back where we started. Confidence was running high then for commodities, the euro and other currencies but low for the dollar, while China’s banking regulator tried to damp excess speculation by cracking down on banks selling loans to trust companies.

Venus has disappeared from the evening sky and will rise in the morning later next week, remaining a morning star until mid-July 2011 before beginning a new cycle on August 16 when the Sun and Venus conjoin in Sun-ruled Leo.

Mars moves into the global sign Sagittarius early Thursday until December 7. The Fed wants more inflation and with Mars in Jupiter-ruled Sagittarius combined with Jupiter in Pisces still in close quarters with Uranus (sudden spikes), the archer risks hitting the wrong target, raising the potential to create a currency war/trade dispute abroad and further asset price inflation that pushes higher prices through to consmers.

Monday, October 25, 2010
Positive.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Markets reverse to negative.

Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Seesaws between positive and negative to end choppy/mixed .

Thursday, October 28, 2010
Positive (bullish).

Friday, October 29, 2010
Positive but could weaken and become choppy/mixed intraday before improving to close positive.

WallStreetWeather.net Forecast For Week Of October 17, 2010

Jupiter and Neptune energies dominating this week can bring larger market moves that indicate the euphoria might be temporarily peaking out during Venus retrograde which could trigger a sharp selloff at the end of the week.

On Monday until later Wednesday morning the Moon (sentiment) will be in Pisces, a sign ruled by Neptune (and Jupiter before Neptune was discovered). The Sun in Venus-ruled Libra forms a challenging alignment to Jupiter in Pisces while the Sun and Mercury harmonizes with Neptune in Aquarius Monday and Tuesday. These influences can indicate there is still a lingering air of overconfidence and the belief that stocks and commodities are not overbought.

As I described in “The Fallout From Toxic Mortgage Processing,” Pluto in Capricorn makes its final opposition to the USA’s natal Venus on Monday that began on March 8, 2009. Nearly 0% interest rates have allowed banks (and large companies) to issue long term debt cheaply which is helping them to prevent another liquidity crisis like two years ago. Now that the banks have recapitalized, the next stage of their transformation is to work through the origination and processing problems with mortgages from the companies they “advantageously” acquired. Time will tell if Countrywide Financial, WaMu, and Wachovia turn out to be Trojan horses.

Mercury and the Sun engage in challenging alignments to Uranus in Pisces Tuesday and Wednesday which raise the potential for currency reversals and unexpected news that could result in some investors making adjustments to rebalance their portfolios. When Uranus is prominent, volatility tends to increase along with the potential for intraday reversals. Prices move higher or lower than expected.

The Moon is in Aries late Wednesday morning until shortly after the second Full Moon in Aries at 9:37 PM EDT Friday. Mercury enters Scorpio Wednesday evening until November 8, increasing the information that surfaces concerning debt and other financial information that has been kept secret. Fast acting Aries is ruled by Mars which in Scorpio harmonizes with Jupiter in Pisces Wednesday and squares Neptune on Friday.

Pisces and Neptune rule bubbles, and Mars could pierce Neptune’s bubble. At this point, investors might not want to wait to “sell on the news” but rather sell on the rumor in the event it turns out to be a lie. Treasuries are especially vulnerable to a correction, along with commodities mined underground since these relate to Scorpio and its planetary ruler Pluto. (Mars was the ruler of Scorpio before Pluto the mythological lord of the underworld was discovered in 1930.)

Monday, October 18, 2010
Potential for large moves in either or both directions; negative bias.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Positive conditions become choppy and turn negative.

Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Choppy/mixed conditions improve to positive.

Thursday, October 21, 2010
Negative bias.

Friday, October 22, 2010
Negative (bearish).

The Fallout From Toxic Mortgage Processing

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Robo signers, robo judges, foreclosure mills, MERS. These are the buzzwords connected to foreclosure fraud. Although the largest banks along with Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) and government majority owned GMAC Mortgage have implemented various foreclosure moratoriums in an effort to sort out the mess, it wasn’t until October 14 that the “paperwork problem” really began affecting the stock market. A look at present, past and future planetary influences explains why the situation has now reached a crisis point and what its impact could be on the banking industry and the overall economy.

A mortgage is a “dead pledge.” The loan dies when the mortgage has been paid in full. If the borrower fails to make payments on the loan, the home becomes “dead” to the borrower who must relinquish the home to the lender. Both debt and death are ruled by Pluto, the planetary energy of transformation. Pluto in Capricorn since 2008 has shown the structure of mortgage finance to be on anything but solid ground. As home values decreased and adjustable rate mortgage payments increased as lending standards tightened, more and more borrowers could not afford to pay their mortgage or kill the debt by selling their home.

Venus rules money, values, and the banking system. The cycle of Venus in Pluto-ruled Scorpio from September 8, 2010 to January 7, 2011 represents the value and costs of debt: money gained or lost through lending, buying, selling, and servicing all types of debt; leverage; and central banks monetizing debt. Venus in Scorpio describes deficits, taxes, insurance, and bankruptcy. All of these matters gain further emphasis since Venus is spending a longer than usual amount of time in Scorpio due to being retrograde from October 8 to November 18. During the six weeks that Venus from Earth’s vantage point appears to be moving backward in the sky is a time to reevaluate matters related to these issues as what has been kept simmering under the surface gets revealed.

Foreclosures are the nuclear fallout from the toxic combination of easy credit and excess leverage. Yet it is foreclosure sales that are driving existing home sales as about 1 in 4 homes sold in the second quarter were in some stage of the foreclosure process according to RealtyTrac.

Venus is retrograde about every 18 months and is retrograde in the same sign every 8 years, so this is the first time since Pluto has been in Capricorn that Venus has been retrograde in Scorpio. Pluto describes events that have a massive effect as part of its cycle of decay, destruction, death and rebirth.

Examining the other planetary influences at the time Venus went retrograde describes why the foreclosure process has ground to a halt now. Mercury, the planetary energy of communication, commerce, and movement rules all documentation connected to mortgages. As Mercury moved into Venus-ruled Libra (October 3) and squared Pluto in Capricorn (October 5), the evidence was rapidly unraveling that not only were the mortgage servicers careless with this paperwork, but several law firms contracted by the servicers and the GSEs were manipulating the paperwork in order to process as many foreclosures as possible. More mistakes were being reported of homeowners being foreclosed on who were paying their mortgage and even instances of foreclosure proceedings on homeowners who did not even have a mortgage.

As is often the case, the New Moon on October 7 brought new developments. Libra is symbolized by the scales of balance and justice. With the New Moon in Libra conjoining Mercury and Saturn in Libra, President Obama announced he would not sign the Interstate Recognition of Notarizations Act of 2010 which would have streamlined the foreclosure process by permitting documents to be notarized in one state and legally valid in another state, and that documents could also be processed electronically. The irony here is that in a rare show of bipartisanship the bill was unanimously passed by voice vote in both chambers and was the first major piece of legislation to be vetoed by the President.

Saturn and Capricorn represent government and can bring blockages and delays by slowing things down as Saturn describes contracting conditions that can become frozen. The nation’s top tier banks had already issued moratoriums in the 23 states where foreclosures had to go before a judge. As Venus turned retrograde and Mercury conjoined Saturn on October 8, Bank of America (BAC) extended their moratorium to all 50 states. A couple of title insurers announced they would stop issuing policies on foreclosed homes. On the October 14 First Quarter Moon which represents the “crisis in action”* phase of the 29.5 day lunar cycle, it was announced that the Attorney Generals in all 50 states will conduct a coordinated inquiry to investigate foreclosure fraud. There was no need for the White House to issue a foreclosure moratorium since the process was already freezing up.

From 2008-2024, Pluto in Capricorn is bringing government and corporate corruption to the surface. Although Fannie and Freddie recently dropped Florida attorney David J. Stern’s law firm from its list of approved vendors, the GSEs have not removed all the foreclosure mills cited in a lawsuit by Florida’s Attorney General.**

With Pluto in Capricorn the ruler of time, we must examine the past to understand the present in order to establish a solid foundation for a better future. The roots of the mortgage mess began in October 1993 when Uranus and Neptune conjoined in Capricorn for the first time in 171 years. This alignment brought the use of new technologies and reforms (Uranus) that would dissolve (Neptune) established structures and geographical barriers (Capricorn). The start of a new Uranus/Neptune cycle ushered in major free trade agreements, outsourcing, the internet revolution, along with the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act and the rise of financial “innovation.”

A new way to process mortgage documents was born that month at the annual convention of the Mortgage Bankers Association when the GSEs backed what would become known as the Mortgage Electronic Registration System (MERS). Based on the model of brokerages holding stocks in street name as opposed to issuing stock certificates to investors, MERS is an electronic registration system that tracks a mortgage “from cradle to grave” using an 18-digit mortgage identification number (MIN).

By using MERS, mortgages could be traded like a stock which was essential to expanding the securitization market. (Ironically it was Lehman Brothers who issued the first AAA rated security comprised of MERS registered loans in February 1999.) Each time a loan’s beneficial ownership or servicing rights is transferred, MERS provides a mechanism for participants avoiding recording in the county courts. A Member of MERS can appoint an employee to serve as an “Officer” of MERS to act in the name of MERS to assign loans, release liens and foreclose (except in Florida).

In the USA chart, Venus (banking) conjoins Jupiter in Cancer (Capricorn’s opposite sign), reflecting that real estate is viewed as the way to greatly expand bank profits. Pluto in Capricorn rules the sector of the chart representing the nation’s wealth indicating that wealth is accumulated through debt. Together with Saturn ruling this sector and Saturn in Libra located in the sector representing the government, the government enacts regulations and laws to facilitate lending for home ownership.

The October 7 Libra New Moon conjoined the USA Saturn, a precursor to when the USA experiences its first Saturn return December 3 for the first time in 29 years. Now the financial innovations that traced their earliest roots back to the early 1980s are waning as the era lacking a strong and uniform structure as its backbone is coming to a close. Saturn in Libra’s job is to put the scales back into balance which requires Democrats and Republicans cooperation to solve the mortgage mess.

Pluto in Capricorn made its first opposition to the USA’s natal Venus in Cancer on March 8, 2009 – two days after the last time Venus turned retrograde. This was at the time the stock market made multiyear lows and speculation about nationalizing the big banks was running rampant. A combination of fiscal and monetary stimulus was starting to work its magic, and bank stocks became the biggest beneficiaries of the market’s resurgence.

As Pluto opposes the USA Venus for the fifth*** and final time on October 18, Venus is once again retrograde and the shares of the largest banks are declining over the uncertainty of how much the mortgage mess will impact their earnings.

Fully resolving all the paperwork issues connected to the foreclosure process could take up to a year. However, Venus turning direct on November 18 squaring the USA Pluto on the same day Jupiter in Pisces also turns direct, could bring a major court ruling at this time that begins to move the process forward again. Bank stocks could experience large moves as the fears might be overblown. Jupiter in Aries transiting the sector of the USA chart representing real estate from late January to early June 2011 indicates a big increase in the number of homes for sale which would reflect the backlog of foreclosures is being processed.

Just as Venus ends its transit in Scorpio in early January 2011, Pluto in Capricorn will oppose the USA’s natal Jupiter in Cancer for the first time in the nation’s history through November 2011. Through their lawsuit, the state Attorney Generals could accomplish what the Administration has been unable to do: force the banks to make mortgage modifications. Combined with extracting penalties for their state coffers, this will have an immediate earnings impact that will affect banks’ capital (but it is likely their regulators will cut them a bit of slack with their capital requirements). Pluto opposite the USA Jupiter indicates it’s time for the lawyers who fraudulently profited to start getting hauled into court.

The greatest threat to the top tier banks is the representations and warranties lawsuits pending from the GSEs, mortgage bond insurers, monolines, and securitization trusts. Estimates range from $70 billion to almost double that in mortgages requested to be bought back. Banks have been playing hardball, asking investors to prove their case on a loan by loan basis rather than accept statistical analysis of the poor quality of the originations. Fannie and Freddie have been the most successful in getting top tier banks to repurchase, but even they have reached a high frustration level by the lack of responsiveness from the top tier banks. Others have been virtually stonewalled.

The leverage cuts both ways as the top tier banks need to sell new originations to Fannie and Freddie, however the GSEs cannot easily exclude the top originators without damaging the economy. The transits of Uranus in Aries squaring the USA Venus (May 2011 to February 2012) and Jupiter (April 2012 to January 2013) together with Saturn transiting Libra and Scorpio, and Pluto in Capricorn opposing the USA Sun in Cancer indicate this process might not conclude until early November 2015.

The courts will need to determine what a breach of warranty is. This is not always completely obvious. When the mortgage application contains an inaccurate credit score or that a home is owner occupied when it was intended to be an investment might be unquestionable. But when a stated income loan shows a housekeeper or migrant worker earning $100,000, the courts will have to determine who lied – the applicant or the loan originator. Should the originator have processed a loan they knew was fraudulent? The courts will also have to determine the acceptability of statistical sampling in claims.

Real estate is ruled by Cancer and the Moon. When the USA’s progressed Moon**** conjoined the USA’s natal Neptune in Virgo in late June, I wrote at the time that “the public is waking up to the deception by the government and the financial and real estate industrial complexes.” Neptune in Aquarius conjoining the USA’s Moon for the final time in mid January 2011 conveys a similar theme.

The financial crisis has proven that home values can go down just as easily as they went up. Until homes are owner occupied for their utilitarian value instead of being used like stocks to be traded, you cannot have a healthy and sustainable real estate market. Home buyers will begin to understand that paying the lowest possible price for a home is far cheaper than obtaining the lowest mortgage rate. When a homeowner goes to sell, it doesn’t matter what their monthly payment or the interest rate was when they purchased. Pluto in Capricorn works its transformation slowly but surely.

*As described by Dane Rudhyar in his book, “The Lunation Cycle.”

**For more information, I recommend reading “Fannie and Freddie’s Foreclosure Barons” by Andy Kroll (Mother Jones)

***The other times were May 2 and December 26, 2009 and August 9, 2010.

****A mathematical calculation that moves the planets forward in time as a method of prediction.

USA: July 4, 1776 5:10 PM Philadelphia, PA

Related Post: “2010 Autumnal Equinox/Harvest Moon: The Regulators Are Running The Show Now

WallStreetWeather.net Forecast For October 10, 2010

Summary Of Last Week’s Influences:
On Friday the Dow closed over 11,000 for the first time since May 3 and is now 22% below its record closing high reached exactly three years ago.

The mantra is that the lower the dollar and Treasury yields go, the higher the market goes. And what really got the market excited was the Bank of Japan “front running” the Fed by announcing Tuesday it would hold short term interest rates between 0 and 0.10% until price stability is in sight together with its plan to purchase about $60 billion in private debt and equities.

The question is did the market move higher because the market believed Friday’s employment report increased the market’s belief the Fed will embark on QE2, or were Republicans/Tea Party “patriots” and their free market donors celebrating a decline in September of government jobs and a gain in private sector employment?

Summary Of This Week’s Influences:
Venus turning retrograde October 8 until November 18 brings a revaluation of asset prices. This is why when Venus turns retrograde every 18 months there is greater potential for markets to reverse direction at some point during the retrograde period.

With financial markets trading in tandem, Venus retrograde increases the potential that one or more asset classes could reverse their trend. Venus in Scorpio indicates revaluing all forms of debt, making bonds and mortgage instruments particularly vulnerable to a reversal as yields may actually increase.

Although reversals can occur within the Venus retrograde cycle particularly around mid cycle when the Sun conjoins Venus (October 28), and/or when Venus turns direct (November 18), most of the time if a reversal is going to occur it will happen around the time Venus turns retrograde.

After plunging to multiyear intraday lows when Venus last turned retrograde on March 6, 2009 followed by multiyear closing lows on March 9, the indices reversed to begin a rally that is now reapproaching its April 26, 2010 highs. During the prior Venus retrograde, the Dow reached 14,000 on July 19, 2007 before declining into the Venus retrograde station on July 27. It then reversed course only to decline again into the conjunction of the Sun and Venus on August 17, before climbing to its all time high on October 9, 2007.

Venus in Scorpio describes being (or believing) you are being bankrolled with someone else’s money. Since Venus turned retrograde conjoining the Federal Reserve’s natal Moon in Scorpio in the sector of the Fed’s chart representing speculation, market sentiment is certain monetary policy will protect investors (the Bernanke Put). Venus will have retrograded back into its home sign Libra by the time Venus turns direct on November 18, squaring the Fed’s natal Neptune in Cancer. Banking on the Fed to do what the market expects could prove to be a mirage. Questions could arise at this time about financial arrangements that prove to be deceptive. Good PR for the Fed might be in short supply.

The federal government, U.S. Treasury market and banks will be closed Monday for the Columbus Day holiday. With no economic reports or earnings of note, the Moon in Sagittarius reflects the market will be focused on global issues.

The Sun in Libra squares the July 11 Solar Eclipse Tuesday, shedding additional light on developments that occurred then. Quarterly earnings season then helped boost the indices up from their 2010 lows of July 2. Earnings season gets underway this week with reports from Intel (INTC) Tuesday, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Wednesday, Google (GOOG) Thursday and General Electric (GE) Friday. To keep stock prices moving higher now the market is going to need to hear positive future guidance together with confidence about the economy. Low rates for an “extended period” are increasing investors’ demand for dividends.

A lack of planetary alignments this week puts greater emphasis on the Moon which reflects the ever changing moods of the market. With the Moon in Jupiter-ruled Sagittarius Monday and Tuesday, the market is prone to outsized reactions which do not always reflect Sagittarius’ optimism. The Moon in Saturn-ruled Capricorn Wednesday until mid-morning Friday keeps the market focused on what is emanating from the government and the regulators. The Minutes from the Fed’s September 21 meeting will be released Tuesday, and Fed Chairman Bernanke will be giving a speech before the market opens Friday on an appropriate topic for Venus retrograde: “Revisiting Monetary Policy in a Low Rate Environment.”

Capricorn rules the elderly who are likely to face a second year of no COLA increases for Social Security unless Friday’s CPI comes in higher than it was in the third quarter of 2008 when high commodity prices were causing price spikes in food and energy prices. With the Fed doing everything possible to reflate a bubble in commodities by weakening the dollar, inflation might not be too far behind. The Moon in Uranus-ruled Aquarius Friday could bring increased volatility and an intraday reversal for options expiration.

Monday, October 11, 2010
Negative trend bias.

Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Positive conditions become choppy and turn negative.

Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Negative.

Thursday, October 14, 2010
Positive.

Friday, October 15, 2010
Market weakens as day progresses; closes negative.

Related Post: “2010 Autumnal Equinox/Harvest Moon: The Regulators Are Running The Show Now

QE2: Beware of the Bernanke Bluff

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Stocks and commodities have risen while the dollar and bond yields have fallen since the September 21 FOMC meeting. The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will embark on a second round of quantitative easing (“QE2”) at its next meeting on November 3. Markets got a further dose of encouragement Tuesday after the Bank of Japan announced that as part of its easing strategy it might begin purchasing corporate bonds, REITs and ETFs. Could Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke be turning Japanese?

Are financial markets digesting all the evidence to reach this conclusion or are they just hearing what they want to hear? Despite all the rhetoric propounded by Bernanke and FRB presidents Dudley, Evans, Bullard and even Fed bureaucrat Brian Sack who heads the New York Fed’s open market operations, if investors carefully weighed all the information they might begin to realize why an additional round of QE2 might not occur. For every statement the Fed has made promoting the benefits of QE2, they have counterbalanced it with cautionary statements about the diminishing effects and costs of initiating a new program.

This is why it is my belief that all the rhetoric about deficient inflation and employment that cites the Fed’s dual mandate is simply to appease the doves on the FOMC, and to use the Fed’s bully pulpit to generate excitement for an inflationary/pro growth environment. Despite their rhetoric to the contrary, if the economy went into a double dip recession a substantial premature QE2 would truly leave the Fed with no more arrows to shoot.

Inflation requires an expansion of credit, and the money the Fed has pumped into QE is being sterilized through excess reserves held at the Fed. As the economy continues to de-lever, excess liquidity is also starting to form bubbles in unproductive asset classes such as gold. Companies are spending their excess cash on stock buybacks and M&A which reduces employment.

While the Fed can break inflation by tightening credit, it cannot expand credit if not enough people qualify, or there is a lack of demand for credit. Consumers and corporations who qualify to receive the lowest rate are more likely to be conservative in their expenditures, further retarding the economic effect of QE2.

The Fed is not concerned with inflation as an economic driver, but rather the ravages of the deflationary debt spiral. In a deflationary environment, falling prices and stagnant to falling wages means it’s more onerous to repay debt since the amount owed is constant while the dollars per hour worked declines. Therefore it will take more working hours to repay older debt in a deflationary environment. In an inflationary environment, rising wages means the borrower does not have to work as many hours to repay the debt. The Fed’s hope is that rising inflation will spur consumers and businesses to spend more on the expectation of getting less value for their dollars in the future.

But the problem as former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker has stated, is that just as a woman can’t be a little bit pregnant, the Fed cannot create a little bit of inflation without running the risk of inflation becoming out of control. Since Chairman Bernanke is already an expert on the Great Depression, a more appropriate study would be the stagflation of the 1970s that Volcker broke.

While the Fed’s rhetoric has been initially successful in driving up the price of debt, gold and other commodities, its overly accommodative monetary policy has had little success in recreating the “wealth effect” and the spending that accompanies it. By the Fed’s own admission it estimates that its $1.7 trillion in mortgage and Treasury bond purchases that ended in March only reduced long term interest rates between 0.3% and 1%. According to calculations made by the New York Fed and MF Global, the Fed would need to purchase an additional $2 trillion in Treasuries in order to push down yields on the 10 year note by just one percentage point.

It is estimated that the current size of the Fed’s balance sheet is the equivalent of 16% of GDP. Since over $1 trillion in excess reserves are already sitting at the Fed, how do they expect to get results from QE2 before the current excess reserves are moved out of the Fed and work their way through the economy? As Minneapolis FRB president Narayana Kocherlakota noted: “I do not see why they (banks) would suddenly start to use the new ones if they weren’t using the old ones.”

Philadelphia FRB president Charles Plosser commented that “It is difficult, in my view, to see how additional asset purchases by the Fed, even if they move interest rates on long term bonds down by 10 or 20 basis points, will have much impact on the near-term outlook for employment.”(1) And the effect of QE2 on lowering mortgage rates will have little economic effect at this point as those who qualify for refinancing have already done so, as have corporations that are stockpiling cash.

I previously wrote that additional policy accommodation would clog up the plumbing that interconnects the elements of the financial system together. While Fed policy has benefited investment banks such as Goldman Sachs (GS) and to a lesser degree Citibank (C) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) as they have been able to issue debt at low interest rates, it raises the risk for other banks as they don’t need to borrow since they have more deposits than they can lend out.

Banks cannot lend long when they risk an increased cost of funding in the future. They cannot pay less than 0% for deposits, and the interest revenue from loans keeps going down which squeezes their interest rate margins (IRMs). Meanwhile bank regulators (which includes the Fed) are telling banks to watch the maturities because of the interest rate risk which further constrains banks from lending long. Banks are only willing to issue 30 year fixed rate mortgages if they are guaranteed by the federal government through Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) and can be sold.

Credit Suisse analyst Craig Siegenthaler estimates that Fed policy could cause IRMs at regional banks to decline from an average of about 3.54% in Q3 to around 3.44% in Q32011 vs. margins well above 4% before the financial crisis. (2) It is not outside of the realm of possibility that Fed policy could severely impair many of the large regional banks as well as put many smaller banks out of business.

Northern Trust (NTRS) said in its earnings call that near zero interest rates reduced 2Q earnings by about $70 million. According to Sanford Bernstein analyst Brad Hintz, asset trust banks such as Northern Trust and State Street (STT), firms with large asset management operations such as Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS), together with brokers such as Ameritrade (AMTD) and Charles Schwab (SCHW) face lower returns on sweep accounts and money market funds that are not earning enough interest to cover their management fees. (2)

If the Fed emulated the Bank of Japan, it would have to buy futures contracts or broad-based ETFs based upon the S&P500 (SPY) and the Russell 1000 (IWB) which would make any money manager except for those firms managing the ETFs such as BlackRock (BLK) and State Street (STT) irrelevant. Investment bankers are becoming worried that nearly zero rates for an “extended period” could impact the financial services industry worse than FINREG.

Fed policy is also wreaking havoc with insurance companies, especially life insurers which have to match investment duration with expected payouts. Guaranteed income products such as annuities might not be feasible given customer reluctance to accept such low returns. Analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods estimate U.S. life insurers’ earnings could be reduced by 2% in 2011 and double that in 2012 if yields do not rise. (2) Met Life (MET) announced last week that 2011 earnings could be reduced by $0.20 per share if the interest rate on the 10 year Treasury note remains at 2.50% through 2011.

Consistent with the insurance industry, public and private pension plans also have to match duration and income with expected payouts. Plans are allowed to estimate their return and calculate the discounted upfront payments to meet their obligations. The estimates commonly stated range from 6-8%, showing no reality to a prudent investment return which would be more likely closer to 3-5%. If pension plans would be forced to fund based upon the current rate of returns, government entities and corporations would have severely increased obligations that many would be unlikely to meet. This unmasks the likely bankrupt status of many pension plans. The longer interest rates remain this low, the more risk plans will have to take to avoid current funding obligations. An honest accounting for pension plans would place a severe drag on the economy, potentially offsetting the benefits of extraordinarily low interest rates.

The Fed has created what I call the reverse Robin Hood effect: consumers with the worst credit are subsidizing those with the best credit who can get money cheaply and they are paying an extremely high interest rate on their credit cards. Most consumers with top credit scores who qualify for extremely low rate loans have already done so. Many of these consumers are suffering from low interest income, especially retirees. A drastic cutback in interest income is pushing retirees to take more risk which is dangerous since time is not on their side to recover from investment losses. Low interest income has also greatly curtailed many retirees discretionary spending.

The Fed’s ultra accommodative policy and the prospect of more to come has fueled commodity speculation. The Fed’s continuous debasing of the dollar is not only wreaking havoc on our trading partners, but is also causing countries such as Brazil to institute capital controls.

Is Chairman Bernanke trying to convince the public that uncertainty has increased since the fall of Lehman Brothers in 2008? Are we to believe that circumstances now are even more “unusually uncertain” than during the height of the financial crisis? The answer is obviously no. And that is why the current Fed rhetoric is simply appeasement to the doves on the FOMC. Remember when the New York Fed said they would grant Bear Stearns a reprieve for “up to 28 days?” Most people mistakenly thought the Fed was giving Bear Stearns a 28 day lifeline, until then NY FRB president Timothy Geithner reminded everyone that “up to” did not mean 28 days.

Talk therapy is a whole lot cheaper than another $500 billion+ round of quantitative easing. The Fed appears to be stalling for time, hoping that economic conditions will have strengthened enough before the market realizes they’re bluffing.

(1) “Speeches show divisions at Fed on bond buys” by Steve Goldstein (MarketWatch)
(2) “Banks and Insurers Face the Killing Yields” by David Reilly (Wall Street Journal)

WallStreetWeather.net Forecast For Week Of October 3, 2010

Summary Of Last Week’s Influences:
Despite the three major indices ending slightly lower last week, the stock market had its best September since 1939. Although the indices began the third quarter at their lows for the year, they closed out the quarter with double digit gains. However, the indices still are below their their 2010 highs reached on April 26 when Saturn opposed Uranus.

The market’s gains came in spite of the summer’s challenging and historic planetary alignments involving Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Pluto. Although fears of a double dip recession did not materialize, on Tuesday the yield on the 10 year note dropped to 2.455%, its lowest level since January 2009 when stocks were sinking and investors were wondering if the government would nationalize the big banks.

While growth has been slow and uneven, economic conditions are obviously stronger than they were then. This reflects that the real driver of the market’s upswing is the Federal Reserve who is aggressively employing talk therapy to reflate stocks, bonds, and commodities.

Summary Of Last Week’s Influences:
Venus is the star of the show this week as Mercury moves into Venus-ruled Libra, Venus conjoins Mars, the New Moon is in Libra, and Venus turns retrograde.

Money and moveable assets, banking, partnerships, agreements/alliances, love and beauty. These are the major themes ruled by Venus, the planetary energy of attraction. Venus rules the signs Taurus and Libra, and has been transiting Taurus’ opposite sign Scorpio since September 8. Venus in Scorpio puts the focus on shared assets and debt.

Venus conjoins Mars for the second time today since August 20 when they rendezvoused in Libra. Venus conjoining Mars in Scorpio brings a passionate intensity that extends beyond intimate relationships. This alignment can bring increased activities in the debt markets, both in price and volume.

Mercury the planetary energy of communication, commerce, and movement, enters Libra today until October 20 after being in its home sign Virgo since July 27.* Mercury in Libra tends to get people thinking about what has become out of balance. Words relating to “balance,” “fairness,” and “equitable” are likely to be heard more frequently now. It’s time to think about how our communications affect others and vice versa. Mercury in Libra combined with Venus in Scorpio gets investors thinking more about the relationships between asset classes.

Mercury rules contracts and Libra rules agreements, alliances/partnerships, and financial counterparties. Fear over counterparty risk erupted into the financial crisis. Mercury was (retrograde) in Libra and Venus was in Scorpio when President Bush signed the TARP into law. Today marks the second anniversary of the TARP and the end of the fund being used for new initiatives, except for up to $46 billion available for the Treasury to use to modify mortgages. (This New York Times graphic shows what has been repaid and what remains outstanding from the original $700 billion fund.) Even AIG, the government’s homemade villain, reached an agreement with the Treasury last Thursday for the government to exit its investment.

Libra is represented by the scales of justice and equality, and Mercury in Libra together with the Sun which is always in Libra each year when the Supreme Court begins its new session on the first Monday in October.

Mercury squaring Pluto and conjoining Saturn this week together with Venus and Mars in Pluto-ruled Scorpio, reflect the Court hearing cases involving the themes represented by these planets, such as whether a debtor can deduct ownership costs for a paid off car during Chapter 13 bankruptcy, to whether the First Amendment gives a church the right to picket with vulgar placards at military funerals and post insulting messages online directed at the deceased soldiers survivors in retaliation for the military’s “don’t ask, don’t tell policy.”

Secrets involving powerful individuals and corporate interests can be revealed when Mercury squares Pluto in Capricorn, along with the fact that these individuals and interests use their power and influence to gain access to confidential information. This influence can also bring news related to nuclear issues, currency manipulation, debt, and the endless obsession over the Fed doing more quantitative easing. Mercury squaring Pluto impacts the Fed’s Sun (identity), Pluto (secrets) and the sector of its chart that represents its reputation.

I have previously described how the combination of the Fed’s Sun opposite Pluto in combination with the Fed’s chart ruler the Moon in Pluto-ruled Scorpio in the sector representing speculation, reflects that the Fed’s policies are engineered to first and foremost benefit Wall St. A Reuters investigation has found that the secretive Fed can be quite transparent with some former Fed heads and even outside individuals who have built a relationship with the Fed. It is their access and ability to provide “color” on the Fed’s thinking that can give individuals and corporate interests a market edge.

The New Moon in Libra occurs Thursday at 2:44 PM, conjoining Mercury and Saturn in Libra as Venus appears stationary in the sky as it prepares to turn retrograde Friday morning. This combination of influences can indicate the market has peaked for the time being.

Venus goes retrograde every 18 months and will be retrograde until November 18. Venus retrograde tends to correlate to market reversals. (Venus last turned retrograde on March 6, 2009 when the indices plunged to multiyear lows.)

The September employment report is released Friday. Mercury conjunct Saturn describes slow but steady job growth.

Similar to last week, choppy/mixed conditions and reversals tend to prevail intraday.

Monday, October 4, 2010:
Mercury changing signs and Venus conjoining Mars could start the week off with a little bit of profit taking before turning choppy/mixed to positive by early afternoon. Mixed close.

Tuesday, October 5, 2010
Indices choppy/mixed; seesaws between moderately positive to negative.

Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Positive conditions start to weaken, becoming choppy/mixed by early afternoon. Turns negative going into the close.

Thursday, October 7, 2010
Choppy/mixed conditions deteriorate and turn negative in afternoon.

Friday, October 8, 2010
Negative.

*Due to Mercury being retrograde August 20 – September 12. Planets do not really move backwards but appear to from Earth’s vantage point.

Related Post: “2010 Autumnal Equinox/Harvest Moon: The Regulators Are Running The Show Now”