WallStreetWeather.net Forecast For Week Of July 4, 2010

In last week’s Forecast I wrote: “’Expect the unexpected’ is the mantra now. Strong Uranus energies tend to increase volatility, market reversals, and sudden breakouts through support/resistance levels.”

Last week the indices broke through the 2010 lows made on June 7 at the time Jupiter conjoined Uranus in Aries. The indices are now in a correction since their 2010 peak on April 26 when Saturn opposed Uranus for the fourth time. And they will probably enter into bear territory by the end of July as described in my two part post on the Summer Solstice.

The media was abuzz last week that the S&P is on the brink of joining the FTSE, the Nikkei and the FTSE Eurofirst 300 in a “death cross.” (When the index’s 50 day moving average drops below its 200 day moving average.) This is increasing anxiety among the chartists since a death cross has heralded four of the last two U.S. bear markets.

The death cross coincides with the cardinal cross formed at the June 26 Lunar Eclipse where the Sun in Cancer squared Jupiter and Uranus in Aries, Saturn in late Virgo (about to re-enter Libra), as the Sun and these planets formed challenging alignments to Pluto in Capricorn (death).

The Sun in Cancer completing the square of these planetary energies reflects the market turmoil as investors realize the consumer based economy that is predicated on keeping home prices propped up is dying, despite record low mortgage rates. Free marketers whine about government, yet government stimulus and the Fed’s monetary policy is what propped up the market. The problem is that the government does not want to face the fact that the US has to go through a slow and painful transition in order for an economic rebirth to occur.

The Lunar Eclipse conjoining Pluto opposing the USA Venus in Cancer reflects that the US is suffering from a collateral crisis. Pluto rules lending and no bank (Venus) will issue a loan these days to a borrower with insufficient collateral. Borrowers cannot get a mortgage or refinance if they owe more on the home that it is worth. Many small businesses are unable to get financing since the business owner’s collateral (the value of their personal residence) is insufficient to borrow against. Republicans complain about the need to “do something” about Fannie and Freddie yet the government is using the GSEs to provide financing for over 90% of US mortgages.

Pluto in Saturn-ruled Capricorn as the most powerful planet of the cardinal cross reflects the push for reducing government debt and enacting austerity measures. Notice how any spending measures passed by Congress that would provide tangible benefits to the nation such as health insurance for all become convoluted and their enactment gets delayed as they have to be “paid for.” Yet spending on the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have bottomless budgets that are quickly and easily approved by Congress. The US has spent over $1 trillion in identifiable costs on these wars which could have went toward healthcare and infrastructure projects that would provide tangible economic security for all Americans.

Summary Of This Week’s Influences:
Rebellion that leads to revolution and independence. The winds of change that usher in reform and innovation. Awakening to freedom from perceived limitations. These are the themes symbolized by Uranus.

So it’s appropriate that as the nation celebrates Independence Day, the energies of Uranus are prominent as it turns retrograde July 5 until the December 5 New Moon in Sagittarius. The phrase “many happy returns” refers to the Solar Return. July 5 is the day of the USA’s Solar Return, when the Sun returns to the exact degree where it was the day the Declaration of Independence was signed on July 4, 1776.*

The economy and the financial system continue to be the central focus over the next year with the Sun ruling this sector of the Solar Return chart. With the Sun in the sector of behind the scenes activities ruled by Mercury-ruled Gemini and Mercury conjoining the Moon-ruled Cancer Ascendant, a lot of previously undisclosed information will be spilling out of government and corporate closets into public view. And the public will be vocal in wanting the Obama Administration to take action that will benefit the nation.

Venus in Leo in the economic/financial sector opposing Neptune in Aquarius in the sector of the chart representing debt reflects the bubble in government debt. With Uranus ruling this sector of the Return chart, the bubble in Treasurys and mortgage debt is likely to stage a sharp reversal during the next year as a lack of foreign buyers raise interest rates regardless of the Fed’s monetary policy. Venus opposite Neptune brings more cases of financial fraud and scandals involving financial companies and possibly the nation’s central bank.

Venus rules the sector representing real estate; its opposition to Neptune reflects that current home values are inflated due to banks refusing to sell their inventories of “underwater” homes at a loss. Venus opposite Neptune can also indicate that the BP oil disaster greatly reduces the value and income of “getaway” commercial and residential properties in the Gulf States, especially coastal Florida.

Uranus stationary in the sector representing foreign affairs reflects there could be an unexpected surprise concerning the expansion of the war in Afghanistan which could lead to violent protests in the US to end the war. A repeat of Vietnam?

Pluto ruling the sector representing the stock market bombarded by challenging aspects from Jupiter, Saturn, and Uranus indicates that the major averages will be much lower than they are now.

“Expect the unexpected” will continue to be the mantra this week with Uranus appearing motionless in the sky through July 11. Since Uranus turned stationary retrograde on Monday, there is a potential for a reversal from last week’s downward spiral. Add the combination of an abbreviated holiday week with a light economic calendar could continue the downward bias with choppy conditions intraday.

On Tuesday the Earth reaches its furthest distance from the Sun (aphelion) this year as the Moon is in Taurus, the first sign in the earth element. Since the Sun represents speculation and confidence, the Moon represents the mood of the market and feeling secure, and Taurus represents money/banking and wealth preservation, this could symbolize investors continuing to “de-risk” from stocks and commodities.

Taurus is the most stubborn sign of the zodiac as this fixed sign is most resistant to change. Although the Moon is well placed in Taurus it is not the ideal sign for negotiating (although a pleasant and comfortable environment with good food can help).

On Tuesday Israeli PM Netanyahu is scheduled to meet with President Obama at the White House. As the only democracy in the Middle East, Israel’s Sun in Venus-ruled Taurus squaring Mars in Leo reflects how the steadiness and determination of fixed energies are needed just to defend one’s right to exist amongst other nations eager for its demise.

With both nations born with Venus in Cancer one degree apart, there is a level of mutual understanding and shared values regarding security issues, as many Americans for religious and cultural reasons consider Israel to be their other homeland.

Like the USA, the June 26 Lunar Eclipse that conjoined Pluto also opposed Israel’s Venus. In Israel’s case, the eclipse reflects diplomatic disagreement (Venus) over the language inserted into the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (Pluto). As reported in The New York Times, with the President’s emphasis on nuclear nonproliferation and forging better relations with the Arab world, the Administration agreed to demands by Arab nations to insert a clause specifically identifying Israel in the document.

While Israel has never admitted or denied it has nuclear weapons, the nuclear nonproliferation document fails to single out Iran’s nuclear ambitions. (The Lunar Eclipse conjoining Pluto coincides with Israel launching its own spy satellite so it can better monitor Iran’s nuclear program.)

With Saturn in Virgo conjoining President Obama’s progressed Sun and conjoining Israel’s progressed Mars, the President will be pressuring Israel to take action regarding negotiations with the Palestinians. While it is has been the goal of every US President since Israel’s founding to proclaim they were responsible for bringing peace to the Middle East, the first issue that needs to be addressed is who does Israel negotiate with - Hamas or Hezbollah? And how can Israel “negotiate” with a group that believes Israel does not have a right to exist?

With transiting Mercury favorably aspecting Israel’s Sun and exactly conjoining its progressed Sun in Cancer Tuesday along with Israel’s progressed Mercury conjoining President Obama’s and the USA’s natal Venus in Cancer, Israel is likely to cordially agree to disagree. Look for the Administration announcing something very trivial that Israel agreed to “negotiate.”

The Moon moving into Mercury-ruled Gemini Thursday and Friday and Mercury changing signs Friday could reflect a temporary change in market sentiment. Venus in Leo opposes Neptune in Aquarius on Thursday. Combined with Mercury in a stressful alignment with Neptune, information presented by corporate and/or government leaders could be a mirage that temporarily boosts the market out of the doldrums.

Venus last opposed Neptune on September 15, 2009. That day marked the one year anniversary of Lehman Brothers filing for bankruptcy. The indices reached their highest levels since the financial crisis broke out as Saturn in Virgo opposed Uranus in Pisces for the third time as markets were boosted by Fed Chairman Bernanke declaring “the recession was very likely over.”

Mercury moving into Leo midday Friday until July 27 could create currency shifts. Risk taking could be confined to very quick short term trades and bets on escalating volatility. Although Mercury harmonizing with Uranus can generate speculative enthusiasm along with a brainstorm of innovative ideas, there could be a last minute change in sentiment going into the weekend with Sunday’s Solar Eclipse in Cancer.

Venus enters Mercury-ruled Virgo early Saturday until August 6, ready to scrutinize every detail of quarterly earnings to determine if valuations are realistic.

Tuesday, July 6, 2010
Negative trend bias, but could be choppy/mixed, seesawing between moderately negative to positive intraday.

Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Choppy/mixed ; swings between moderately negative to positive.

Thursday, July 8, 2010

Friday, July 9, 2010
Positive early, then becomes choppy/mixed to negative conditions by late morning. Reverts back to positive in early afternoon, but could turn choppy/mixed to negative going into the close.

*5:10 PM LT Philadelphia, PA

USA Solar Return: July 5, 2010 6:49:27 AM EDT Washington, DC
Israel: May 14, 1948 4:00 PM EET Tel Aviv

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Very useful forecast! I read it every week.