WallStreetWeather.net Weekly Forecast For Week Of June 1, 2009

Summary Of Last Week’s Influences:
Reflation is the buzzword to describe the market’s rise over the last three months and the stampede back into commodities. It is also a perfect description of expansive Jupiter conjoining with inflationary Neptune.

But as Investopedia warns, government intervention to curb falling asset values has never succeeded and ultimately ends up making conditions worse, postponing the recovery. Last Wednesday (the day Jupiter exactly conjoined Neptune), the yield on the 10 year note climbed to 3.732%, its highest level since last November. Bulls attribute higher Treasury yields to investors shifting to higher yielding investments after seeing signs of economic “green shoots.” But the “bond vigilantes” view the nation’s expanding debt combined with the Fed “printing money” as a recipe for disaster. Jupiter represents trust and foreign relations, and foreign governments are not completely confident they can trust the US government to spend its way out of the recession.

Although the yield on the 10 year had retreated to 3.467% by the end of the week, Jupiter and Neptune conjoining in Aquarius indicates that inflation is rising and can spiral out of control quicker than Bernanke can blink. This is because Jupiter expands and Neptune knows no boundaries. Aquarius creates price spikes that move quicker and higher than anticipated. Bernanke wants inflation, but these energies can bring too much inflation, too fast. The only areas of deflation to be found are in certain products and services that consumers do not have to have to survive.

Oil is ruled by Neptune, and Neptune’s energy is particularly pronounced now as the planet turned stationary retrograde* Friday, further reflating the price of crude oil which closed the month of May with its biggest monthly gain in 10 years. (Oil closed at $66.31 Friday). Precious metals and other commodities also continued to gain.

As I described in “Wall Street and the Consumer in Parallel Universes,” Jupiter/Neptune conjoining the USA’s natal Moon is why consumers feel more optimistic about the future. Consumer confidence surveys by the Conference Board and the University of Michigan came in higher than expected, with the biggest gain coming from “future expectations.” It is this feeling of optimism that is causing financial markets to get too far ahead of themselves and speculators to grab up foreclosures despite the fact that underlying fundamentals are still weak. Yet the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Index continues to fall, down 18.7% in March, a record year over year decline. On a BofA Merrill Lynch webcast the other night, Robert Shiller said: “I would be concerned about buying a house right now as it could be worth 20% less next year.”

With Mercury retrograde, Jupiter conjoining Neptune, and Neptune turning retrograde all in the same week, I thought that most of my daily predictions would end up reversed. As promised in last week’s Forecast, here are the grades for last week’s unpublished prognostications (what was incorrect appears in parenthesis).

Tuesday: D (Thought indices would lose momentum, ending only moderately up at the close.)
Wednesday: F (Thought market would turn positive in the afternoon.)
Thursday: F (Thought would close negative.)
Friday: A

Summary Of This Week’s Influences:
After being retrograde May 7-30, Mercury slowly begins moving forward again this week, retracing the path it originally traveled on April 22-24. (Mercury will move forward into new territory June 16.)

Mars moves into Taurus this afternoon until July 11. Mars likes to move fast, but Taurus prefers to take it slow and steady. Venus will move into its “home” sign Taurus on Saturday until July 5. Mercury, Venus, and Mars will be in Taurus from June 6-13. Taurus rules banking and material resources. As the first sign of the earth element, Taurus is interested in tangible assets and fundamental values. This is in contrast to the sojourn of Venus and Mars in fiery, fast trading Aries and Jupiter/Neptune in airy Aquarius that are based on possibilities or derivatives of real value.

Because the Jupiter/Neptune alignment is of a longer duration and is particularly influential through July, there remains a strong desire to keep the bear market rally going. Besides, Taurus the bull likes nothing better than asset accumulation. As a fixed sign, Taurus energy tends to be reluctant to make changes, running the risk that profits begin to evaporate.

The Moon in Libra challenging Pluto in Capricorn on Monday, aptly reflects that after obtaining agreement (Libra) from the UAW and a majority of unsecured bondholders, General Motors (GM) will file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy (Pluto) restructuring (Capricorn). President Obama is scheduled to speak about the filing in the morning, while GM CEO Fritz Henderson has planned a midday press conference in Manhattan to discuss the filing. (The Moon enters Libra at 11:17 AM.) Meanwhile Treasury Secretary Geithner, one of the members of the Auto Task Force, will be in China urging the Chinese government to transform their nation into a domestic consumer driven economy since US consumers are tapped out.

Fed Chairman Bernanke will testify before the House Budget Committee on Wednesday at 10:00 AM on “Challenges Facing the Economy.” As a follow up to my post on “Bernanke and the Fed’s Bogus Transparency,” the GAO is making preparations to audit the Fed over its handling of American International Group (AIG). On May 21, AIG Chairman & CEO Ed Liddy announced he would resign as soon as a replacement is found. Throughout his tenure, Liddy has emphasized that Federal Reserve officials were involved in the decision making process as they occupied AIG’s offices and attended Board meetings.

The Sun in Gemini challenges Saturn in Virgo on Friday, requiring mental discipline to sort through all the information to ascertain what’s relevant to efficiently and cost effectively tackle the job. Saturn represents contraction, and Virgo the workforce. The May employment report is released today. Economists anticipate a loss of around 530,000 jobs and a 9.2% unemployment rate. The market’s reaction to the report could be better than expected, perhaps due to revisions or employers who cut back hours instead of laying off in the hope that business picks up later this year. The President or government leader and/or a prominent CEO might come out with more of the “we’re about at the bottom/worst is almost over” remarks to boost investor confidence.

Monday, June 1, 2009
Negative trend bias.

Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Negative trend bias; improving conditions in the late morning. Could weaken again and regain traction in the final hour.

Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Indecisively swings from negative to choppy/mixed conditions improving to positive in afternoon.

Thursday, June 4, 2009
Positive.

Friday, June 5, 2009
Choppy/mixed to mostly positive trend bias, but could deteriorate into the close.

*Planets do not really move backwards but appear to from Earth’s vantage point.

No disclosures.

WallStreetWeather.net Forecast For Week Of May 25, 2009

Summary Of Last Week’s Influences:
Financial markets last week certainly reflected they were driving under the influence of Mercury retrograde squaring off with Jupiter and Neptune. Mercury represents communication and movement, and markets tend to lose their sense of direction when retrograde. Mercury retrograde certainly took the stock market on a circular route that in spite of all the gyrations left the major indices just slightly higher than where it left off the previous week. Jupiter and Neptune together in Aquarius saw Monday’s extreme optimism and euphoria quickly fade into uncertainty over how strong those much touted “green shoots” really are.

The overzealous enthusiasm of Mr. Green Shoots “printing money” at the Fed saw the yield on the 10 year note rise 32 basis points by Friday’s close to 3.455%. While Bernanke was out searching for any sign of deflation, the dollar weakened to its lowest level this year and crude oil closed at its highest level for 2009 on Wednesday ($62.04).

As Dallas FRB president Richard Fisher told Saturday’s Wall Street Journal, the most frequent concern raised during his recent trip to Asia was about the Fed’s purchase of Treasurys. (China has been buying short-term treasuries over longer maturities in the last eight months to protect itself against a sharp increase in bond yields in the event Bernanke’s bond bubble bursts.) After S&P lowered its outlook on the UK’s sovereign debt from stable to negative Thursday for a possible downgrade following the next General Election, the media was hyping comments by PIMCO’s Bill Gross that the US “could be next.” According to Friday’s Wall Street Journal, a five year CDS contract on US debt was $37,500 for every $10 million insured. But a five year CDS on France’s debt cost $36,500.

This latest development brought more gold bugs out of the woodwork, despite gold jewelry sales at a 20 year low. Like oil, gold is not trading on fundamentals but on the anticipation of more inflation in the pipeline as a result of all this debt issuance. Jupiter expands and Neptune’s tendency is to inflate into a bubble.

What do loaded guns and credit cards have in common? Apparently physician Senator Tom Coburn has picked up on the USA’s natal Mars challenging natal Neptune through his Amendment attached to the credit card bill. Mars rules weapons, and Neptune rules ideologies, as well as those plastic credit cards. And now you don’t have to leave home without either one of them, as under the CARD Act of 2009 that President Obama signed Friday, you can now take a loaded gun along with a credit card into America’s national parks. (BTW, the CARD Act was first introduced in Congress on January 22 - the last time Mercury was retrograde.)

Summary Of This Week’s Influences:
This will probably be another light volume week since it’s a holiday week. This week features Jupiter exactly conjoining Neptune on Wednesday, bringing a giant dose of optimism and euphoria or hysteria that grows like a contagion. With the planetary pair conjoining in wild and crazy Aquarius and Mercury retrograde, who knows? I’ll keep my prognostications private this week and rate myself Bob Toll-style in next week’s forecast.

Most likely it will probably be another week of choppy/mixed conditions that give way to more volatile and bigger moves in either or both directions as the week progresses. Mars in Aries interacting with Jupiter and Neptune Tuesday and Wednesday can accelerate the speed of the market moves. My post “Wall Street and the Consumer in Parallel Universes,” explains the three exact alignment of Jupiter and Neptune this year.

Neptune’s energies are extra potent from May 24 to June 2 as from Earth’s vantage point the planet will appear to be stationary in the sky, turning retrograde early Friday. Neptune rules interest rates, inflation, and oil and these are usually key issues when Neptune's energies are pronounced. On Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, the Treasury will auction a total of $162 billion in new debt.

Neptune rules clouds and fog that can create confusion that obscures our minds from thinking clearly. Is it real or just rumor and illusion? Neptune is about opening up our creative and intuitive faculties so we’re sensitive enough to pick up on the subtle nuances that are not always readily apparent analytically. Taking some time to tune out in favor of some R&R can be particularly productive this week. Mars in Aries favorably aspecting Jupiter and Neptune offers the opportunity to be proactive about developing creative ideas/projects that previously got pushed aside in favor of more immediate obligations.

Neptune rules drugs and chemicals. In “Project Solar: Merck & Schering-Plough’s Reverse Merger,” I wrote that legal issues would probably arise in late May over Schering’s revenue sharing agreement with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) for Remicade. This week J&J is expected to begin formal arbitration for a return of J&J’s full rights to market and sell Remicade and its improved version Simponi outside the US, according to the Financial Times.

Individual investors (many who are senior citizens on fixed incomes) hold about 20% of the $27 billion in unsecured debt that General Motors (GM) and the government are asking they swap it for a 10% equity stake in GM to prevent the automaker from going into bankruptcy. If the bondholders accept the offer, they will get 225 newly issued GM shares per $1,000 face value, but then GM will execute a 1 for 100 reverse split. The Fed’s monetary policy of low interest rates pushed these investors to seek yield through higher risk investments. As bondholders, these investors thought they would escape punishment by the government as the government has protected the bondholders while wiping out the shareholders in bank failures. Tuesday is the deadline for their decision, but as I’ve written before*, GM is headed for bankruptcy court.

Mercury moves direct Saturday evening with the Moon in Mercury-ruled Virgo. Reconfirm schedules, review all the fine print, fully charge electronic devices, and run backups and security scans on computers.

No disclosures.

*Link to previous Weekly Forecast talks about Henderson and Wagoner. It links to a December post that contains the links to my three part series on the automakers.

Wall Street and the Consumer in Parallel Universes

Published by WallStreetWeather.net

Wall Street is optimistic about the future and so is the consumer. However, they are living in parallel universes, envisioning a different future. The Federal Reserve is inducing Wall Street and investors into believing that the consumer economy of the last two decades will be revived, while consumers themselves are not under the illusion (or have the luxury) of repeating their past mistakes.

Jupiter symbolizes optimism and expansion and is about to exactly conjoin Neptune (hope and illusion). Jupiter and Neptune will conjoin in the same degree in futuristic Aquarius on May 27, July 10, and December 21, 2009. This marks the first time Jupiter and Neptune have conjoined in Aquarius since 1843.*

The Moon is prominent during the three times Jupiter and Neptune form an exact alignment. The Moon represents consumers as the lunar energy describes what we need mentally and physically to feel safe and secure. On May 27 the Moon will be in its “home” sign Cancer, ruler of family, food, real estate, and consumables in general. The Moon in Aquarius will conjoin the Jupiter/Neptune alignment on July 10 and December 21. On all three occasions Jupiter and Neptune will conjoin the USA’s natal Moon in Aquarius.

Aquarius and its planetary ruler Uranus is known as the great awakener. Planets in Aquarius represent a wakeup call for reform through breaking free from outmoded ways of thinking and doing things. And because the Moon plays a prominent role at the time of these exact Jupiter/Neptune alignments, consumers can exhibit a greater tendency to feel (Moon) more optimistic (Jupiter) and hopeful (Neptune) about the future (Aquarius). Jupiter and Neptune have been closely conjoined since early May and will continue to be through July, and then again during December. (Because these are slow moving planets, they have influence in the time frame before and after being exact.)

Through its monetary policy of near zero interest rates and huge purchases of agency securities and Treasury debt, the Federal Reserve is trying to revive consumer spending. Yet despite the Fed’s efforts to keep mortgage rates below 5% to spur home sales and refinancing, much of the uptick in home sales can be attributed to purchases of foreclosed homes by speculators. And homeowners who qualify to refinance tend to be more inclined to put the money saved towards paying down debt and increasing their savings.

Jupiter and Neptune in Aquarius is about individuals (Aquarius) having faith (Neptune) in their own truth (Jupiter) and not the dogma dictated by the Fed’s economic models. This is why consumers feeling more optimistic and hopeful about the future does not translate into a revival of a consumer-based economy reminiscent of the 71% of GDP during the housing bubble. The fact that Wall Street and Aquarius energy is always forward-looking is only grasping one facet of this dynamic. The other component is that Aquarius energy is progressive rather than wasting energy trying to recreate the past. Aquarius is about moving forward into the realm of the unknown which by its nature is not reliably predictable.

This is the time to expand horizons (Jupiter) and step beyond the barriers and boundaries (Neptune) to do something new and different (Aquarius). Consumers have been deeply wounded and need to heal. The old philosophy of believing you could buy everything on credit** as the economy continued on a never ending upward trajectory has turned dreams into nightmares. For millions of consumers the debt has become a mountain too high to easily descend from (Pluto in Capricorn).

The government and Wall Street must be getting high on a pretty powerful mind altering substance (Neptune again!) to believe that consumers carrying a high debt burden can once again rescue the economy. Consumers have little fire power with miniscule or no savings and shrunken retirement accounts, in an environment of rising unemployment. And the consumers who are responsible enough to be in reasonably good financial condition are not likely to play ball with the Fed, even though those are the consumers most likely to take advantage of the Fed’s mortgage refinancing efforts.

The Federal Reserve is not concerned about inflation, but Jupiter/Neptune is a sure signal that inflation has arrived, even if cloaked in a slightly more unconventional (Aquarius) form. Jupiter expands and exaggerates, and Neptune inflates to form bubbles. And the Fed alludes that the inflation is just imaginary.

The USA is a debtor nation with natal Pluto (debt) in the area of the USA chart representing the economy. Buyers begin to pull back from purchasing treasuries out of the inflationary concern the government is issuing too much debt. With the nation’s central bank printing money, the only way to unload all the debt issuance is through rising yields. As treasury yields rise it will become increasingly more difficult for the Fed to keep a lid on interest rates.

Oil is a perfect example since it is ruled by Neptune. Economic fundamentals do not support the rapid rise in the price of oil since it is in abundant supply (Jupiter). But since oil is traded in USD, concerns over the USA’s massive debt binge has created dollar weakness which translates into higher oil prices.

As the influence of Jupiter and Neptune begins to wane, investors will see it was nothing more than a short term pleasant interlude known as a bear market rally. The next phase of the economic crisis could begin in late summer and is likely see the stock market break through its early March lows as the nation must grapple with the enormous structural changes it has spent years attempting to postpone.

*Jupiter and Neptune conjoin about every 12.5 to 13 years. Their last alignment was January 9, 1997 in Capricorn.

**Neptune rules credit (from the Latin “to believe”).

USA: July 4, 1776 5:10 PM Philadelphia, PA

WallStreetWeather.net Forecast For Week Of May 18, 2009

Summary Of Last Week’s Influences:
As last Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal observed: “Stocks fell as investors reassessed some of their upbeat bets of the past few weeks amid concern the market may have rallied too far, too fast.”

Reassess, reform, review. Putting the re prefix in front of everything you do is the key to working with Mercury’s energies during the time (May 7-30) the planetary energy of communication and movement appears to be retrograde from Earth’s vantage point.

When Mercury is retrograde, financial markets tend to get choppy with no clear sense of direction. When Mercury turned retrograde on May 7, the stock market reversed its bullish bias. But bullish sentiment returned the following day. Then stocks reversed on the following trading day (Monday, May 11). The Journal attributed Monday’s action to “Bulls and bears clash on repercussions* of the moves by Capital One (COF), Key Corp. (KEY), and US Bancorp (USB) to raise capital, and GM’s (GM) Fritz Henderson saying bankruptcy is ‘probable.’”

Mercury is often referred to as the trickster, and tends to exhibit this trait in full form when retrograde. (This is Mercury reminding us to maintain our sense of humor.) Beyond financial markets being up or down one or two days and then reversing, Mercury is changeable and fond of variety. Even if market sentiment dominated in one direction, the indices are more prone to being choppy and/or mixed intraday. Everything got thrown into the mix on Friday when the indices opened slightly down, reversed five minutes later, were choppy/mixed and positive biased in the morning before heading down in the afternoon.

Volume was light last week, perhaps attributed to investors relaxing on the sidelines until Mercury moves forward again.
:-) Not that Mercury retrograde really matters if limit orders have been placed to buy and sell.

Each day of the week resonates to a certain planetary energy and Wednesday is Mercury’s day. Last Wednesday Mercury re-entered Taurus, the sign of banking/finance and values. (Mercury will be in Taurus until June 13.) Banks stocks fell as more financial companies raised capital to pay back the TARP. Treasury Secretary Geithner announced the Administration is working on a plan to reform and revise the OTC derivatives market. Customized contracts would be subject to recordkeeping and reporting requirements. Federal regulators are rethinking the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 (see 4.).

Mercury is not the only planetary energy moving in a different direction. Saturn’s energies became more pronounced on Wednesday as it prepared to turn direct May 16. (Saturn turned retrograde December 31.) Mercury rules Gemini and Virgo, and Saturn in Virgo combined with Mercury retrograde reflected the market’s disappointment that April retail sales came in lower than expected. “Consumer Caution Erodes Retail Sales” (WSJ) perfectly describes Saturn’s cautious and pessimistic energy combined with frugal Virgo. Virgo rules jobs and the essentials for daily living. As long as employment (Virgo) is contracting (Saturn), people will place a greater priority on saving and debt reduction (Pluto in Capricorn).

Saturn rules government, and Virgo rules health matters. As more people lose, cannot obtain, or cannot afford health insurance, it has become necessary for the government to insure that all Americans have access to health insurance that is affordable.

Saturn rules time, and after several decades of Congressional debates over the issue that resulted in coverage for senior citizens (Medicare) and the poor (Medicaid), leading Congressional Democrats began working on the issue shortly after Election Day. President Obama’s remark Wednesday that “the stars are aligned” for healthcare reform this year was a reminder this long neglected issue has reached a crisis point that severely limits the nation’s economic recovery. Alan Abelson’s latest column in Barron’s cites an ISI Group policy report that the reform plan underway in Congress could mean “a tremendous loss of market share” for managed care companies.

Summary Of This Week’s Influences:
The Sun conjoining Mercury in Taurus on Monday indicates that Mercury has reached the midpoint of its retrograde cycle. Mercury retrograde is a good time to review finances and apparently The New York Times agrees, as today’s magazine is called "the money issue." Mercury is getting ready to challenge Jupiter and Neptune on Wednesday, and Monday and Tuesday the Moon (sentiment) will be in Pisces, a sign that was ruled by Jupiter before Neptune was discovered. Creative juices can flow by taking time out for quiet reflection.

The Moon will be in fast acting Aries Wednesday and Thursday as Mercury challenges Jupiter and Neptune. (Mercury last hooked up with Jupiter on April 22 and Neptune April 25, and will again June 9-10.) News outlets will be in overdrive as Jupiter expands and exaggerates, and Neptune can create deceit and rumors, contagious euphoria or panic. The Sun entering Mercury-ruled Gemini early this evening until June 21 only adds to the mental overstimulation. Too much multitasking can lead to communication snafus and errors.

Volatility is likely to increase this week. The most volatile market moves could occur on Monday and Wednesday. Mix Mercury’s vacillation with cautious and fearful Saturn, which can be exaggerated or ignored by Jupiter in favor of overzealous optimism. Foggy Neptune creates more confusion, making it difficult for the market to find its footing.

Monday, May 18, 2009
Negative trend bias.

Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Negative trend bias; improving conditions in early afternoon.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Conflicting information and rumors is likely to create sharp and swift moves that can be in either or both directions, but more biased to the downside.

Thursday, May 21, 2009
Choppy/mixed to positive trend bias.

Friday, May 22, 2009
Positive trend bias.

*I italicized the words in the two WSJ quotes for emphasis.

No disclosures.

Big Pharma’s Illusion of ‘Innovation’

Published by WallStreetWeather.net

Eli Lilly (LLY) Chairman and CEO John Lechleiter’s op-ed piece on “Health-Care Reform and the ‘Innovation Test’” in today’s Wall Street Journal is yet another anti-consumer big pharma industry rant. Mr. Lechleiter does not want Americans to have the ability to choose between a public or private option for health insurance. And he’s against the government conducting cost benefit comparisons of medications and medical treatments so consumers can save money by using the most effective treatment at the lowest price.

Lechleiter reiterates big pharma’s party line, threatening that any tampering by government to bring down the costs of pharmaceutical drugs in America means “innovation may be written out of the script.” “U.S.-based private industry is the heart and soul of this innovation drama, investing $58 billion in research and development for new medicines in 2007 alone.”

Yet turning to the front page of today’s Journal (“A Celebrity Backing Turns Sour for Drug Firm”) describes a different “innovation drama” taking place at big pharma. And the only thing being pushed out of this “innovation script” is the $60 billion per year drug companies spend marketing their products. This is twice the amount big pharma spends on research and development, according to a study published by the Public Library of Science.

Bristol-Myers Squibb’s (BMY) innovation script for its “disease awareness” efforts marketing campaign is straight out of a Hollywood casting call. People who recovered from illness audition for a part in the campaign. If they pass the audition, they receive a callback where they’re given a script based on their talk during the audition. If selected, they’re paid to appear in TV commercials and give speeches at internal marketing events.

In early 2004, Bristol-Myers was seeking FDA approval to expand the use of its schizophrenia drug Abilify to treat bipolar disorder. According to the National Institutes of Health, bipolar disorder affects 5.7 million Americans. It is characterized by “mood episodes” that go from a depressive episode to a euphoric high called a "mania." Sometimes a person can exhibit a combination of both (a “mixed state”). Over half of all cases of bipolar disorder start before age 25.

A Bristol-Myers employee contacted Andy Behrman about promoting Abilify for bipolar after reading Behrman’s book, “Electroboy: A Memoir of Mania” chronicling his mood episodes and describing his drug use and electroshock therapy, his time as a stripper, and running an art forgery ring (which landed him in jail for five months).

Between February 2004 and December 2005, Bristol-Myers paid Behrman a total of $400,000 to appear in a promotional video and give speeches to Bristol-Myers sales reps at marketing events about his experiences using Abilify. In the video Behrman says: “Since I switched to Abilify, almost all the side effects have gone away. In fact, all of them have gone away.”

Behrman had been taking Abilify just four days before the video was shot, and within weeks of taking the drug he told the Journal he “developed stiffness and agitation in his legs” and that Abilify “clouded his thinking.”

Behrman was not contractually obligated to take Abilify, and stopped taking the drug in early 2005. He claims he privately complained to Bristol-Myers about its side effects. Bristol-Myers acknowledged to the Journal that “the appearance and onset of side effects depends on a number of variables,” but claims it has no record of Behrman’s complaint.

Behrman continued to speak at Bristol-Myers internal marketing events, where he praised Abilify as the only medication he took that didn’t have side effects. To prepare for these events, Behrman was regularly coached by a communications consultant and a PR firm employed by Bristol-Myers. Behrman said he was instructed to:

• Reiterate the drug has no side effects.
• Say that Abilify had “saved” him
• Avoid mentioning (but if pressed respond truthfully) that he was being paid by Bristol-Myers

Bristol-Myers even hired Andy Behrman’s psychiatrist, Mark Frye as a consultant, funding physician education videos featuring the two men.

The collaboration between Behrman and Bristol-Myers ended when Bristol-Myers offered to renew his contract for $150,000 a year for three years, but Behrman rejected the offer. (Behrman disputes Bristol-Myers’ assertion he asked for $7.5 million.)

Perhaps Behrman should have taken a cue from the Hollywood playbook he attempted to emulate and have asked for a low salary and a share of Abilify’s profits. (Abilify’s sales were $2.8 billion in 2008, making it Bristol-Myers’ second biggest selling drug.) Since his confidentiality agreement expired at the end of 2008, Behrman has been unsuccessful in acquiring a new speaking gig with another drug company.

From Abilify to stunt doubles to ghostwriters. These are just a few examples of lies and deceit hiding behind big pharma’s illusion of innovation.

No disclosures.

President Obama Declares “The Stars Are Aligned” For Healthcare Reform This Year

Published by WallStreetWeather.net

President Obama said today it is imperative that Congress pass healthcare reform. The President remarked: “We've got to get it done this year -- both in the House and in the Senate. And we don't have any excuses; the stars are aligned.”

The stars are indeed aligned this year for Congress and President Obama to ensure that health insurance is available and affordable for all Americans.

The President made his remarks in front of the White House at 10:20 AM this morning. The Moon represents the public and security issues, and is not only the ruler of the chart for Obama’s speech this morning, but falls in the area of the chart representing healthcare. The Moon and Pluto in Capricorn relate to government. They describe the government’s objective to implement major structural transformation of the nation’s healthcare system. Jupiter conjoining Neptune in progressive Aquarius in the chart area representing insurance describes expanding (Jupiter) healthcare coverage for all (Aquarius). Neptune dissolves the boundaries of our current healthcare system of exclusion by medical underwriting to one of inclusion, as well as dissolving the barrier of unaffordable coverage. In addition, Jupiter and Neptune are conjoining the USA’s natal Moon in Aquarius, increasing the likelihood that healthcare reform will happen this year.

The Moon challenging Mars in its “home” sign Aries in the area of the chart representing the President reflects Obama’s urgency for the House to pass a bill by July 31. The Sun (representing the President) and Mercury retrograde resides in the area representing Congress. Mercury retrograde describes that members of Congress will in essence be returning to finish the work left uncompleted by their predecessors who passed legislation guaranteeing healthcare coverage for people over 65.

President Obama’s July 31 date has meaning beyond pushing Congress to get a bill passed before summer recess. On July 30, 1965 at 3:09 PM in Independence Missouri, President Johnson signed the Medicare Act at the Truman Library in honor of the former President who strived to achieve healthcare for every American. Harry Truman became the first person to receive a Medicare card.

On November 19, 1945, President Truman proposed “a comprehensive health program” for all Americans as part of his Economic Bill of Rights. Truman told Congress:

“Our new Economic Bill of Rights should mean health security for all, regardless of residence, station, or race--everywhere in the United States.We should resolve now that the health of this Nation is a national concern; that financial barriers in the way of attaining health shall be removed; that the health of all its citizens deserves the help of all the Nation.”

But Republicans and the American Medical Association had a different view, alluding that “socialized medicine” was essentially a cover for communism. (This was during the McCarthy era).

There are a few key parallels between Harry Truman and Barack Obama. Although in different signs, both Truman and Obama were born with an alignment between the Sun (self-identity) and idealistic and barrier dissolving Neptune. Obama’s Sun in its “home” sign Leo challenges his Neptune in Scorpio. His Sun and Mercury (communication) is located in the area of his chart that represents healthcare. Obama’s Neptune is in transformative Scorpio (the sign ruling insurance) and Scorpio is the sign ruling his area of public reputation and recognition. Transforming the nation’s healthcare system could be the biggest achievement of his presidency.

Truman’s Sun conjoined Neptune in Scorpio’s opposite sign Taurus. Taurus is ruled by Venus, and Truman’s Venus was in Cancer, and so is President Obama’s. More importantly, both men have Venus conjoining the USA’s Venus in Cancer. Venus represents the nation’s wealth and its values, and Moon-ruled Cancer represents the public. Healthcare spending currently represents 16% of the USA’s GDP. Both men have made the case that healthcare for all is an economic issue.

Obama has said that the budget deficit cannot be solved without healthcare reform. Today the President said “businesses are using money to pay their rising health care costs that could be going to innovation and growth and new hiring.” Venus conjoining Jupiter in the USA’s chart describes our nation’s bounty. In his 1945 speech, Truman remarked: “We are a rich nation and can afford many things. But ill-health which can be prevented or cured is one thing we cannot afford.” Pluto in Capricorn opposing the USA Venus this year and Jupiter in 2010 reflects that transforming healthcare is the key to rebuilding a solid economic foundation.

President Truman saw his dream (Sun/Neptune) of healthcare coverage only partially come true. As Democrats and Republicans annually debated in Congress over the issue, it was becoming more difficult for senior citizens to obtain affordable hospitalization coverage. While there was too much resistance in Congress for universal coverage, senior citizens are a formidable voting bloc. A compromise was reached, and Medicare was born in 1965.

Beginning on Election Day 2008 through mid-2010, Saturn in Virgo is opposing Uranus in Pisces. Virgo rules healthcare in general and Pisces rules hospitalization and drugs. The current healthcare delivery system (Saturn) is no longer efficient (Virgo), requiring Uranus to break through the barriers of status quo Saturn’s boundaries to manifest progressive change (Uranus) that benefits society as a whole (Pisces). The last time Saturn opposed Uranus was during 1965-1967 when the signs were reversed (Saturn in Pisces opposed Uranus in Virgo).

A planet’s energy is more pronounced when from Earth’s vantage point it appears to be stationary in the sky. Saturn in Virgo is stationary now as it shifts from being retrograde* to direct. Right now Saturn in Virgo is conjoining the Medicare Act’s Pluto, creating the government’s willingness (Saturn) to work to transform (Pluto) healthcare (Virgo).

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus is in charge of steering healthcare reform legislation through the Senate. The legislation will likely address many of the proposals in the Senator’s White Paper. Senator Baucus’ progressed** Sun in Aquarius will conjoin President Obama’s progressed Moon at the end of July, indicating that President Obama will likely be in sync with the legislation. More importantly, Baucus and Obama’s progressed Sun and Moon exactly conjoin the USA’s natal Moon, indicating the majority of Americans will likely agree with them.

*Planets do not really move backwards, but appear to from Earth’s vantage point. Saturn turns direct May 16.

** A mathematical calculation that moves the planets forward in time as a method of prediction.

Barack Obama: August 4, 1961 7:24 PM AHST Honolulu, Hawaii
Harry S. Truman: May 8, 1884 4:00 PM CST Lamar, Missouri
Max Baucus: December 11, 1941 time unknown Helena, Montana
USA: July 4, 1776 5:10 PM Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

WallStreetWeather.net Forecast For Week Of May 11, 2009

Summary Of Last Week’s Influences:
A planet appearing from Earth’s vantage point to change direction can indicate at least a temporary shift in sentiment and trend reversal. Last Thursday Mercury, the planetary energy of communication turned retrograde in its “home” sign Gemini. True to Gemini’s dualistic nature, two reversals occurred.

A big part of Thursday’s market drop resulted from low demand in the Treasury’s $14 billion auction of 30 year bonds that pushed yields higher. The 30 year bond closed Friday at 4.275% and the 10 year note closed at 3.293%. With an estimated $2 trillion of debt to be issued by the Treasury between now and September 30, the Federal Reserve is going to have a difficult time keeping the 10 year below 3% in order to keep mortgage rates low.

Thursday saw an accelerated reversal out of the technology and retail sectors and into financials and commodities. Beyond tech’s seasonality, patterns that begin when Mercury is retrograde might not last beyond May 30 when Mercury turns direct. Financial markets tend to be choppy and unsure whether to head higher or lower, so they tend to revert to one pattern for a day or two before doing something different. Or they do it all in one trading session.

Summary Of This Week’s Influences:
Most of the time I’m more preoccupied with preparing or cleaning up from dinner than paying close attention to what Jim Cramer’s talking about on Mad Money. But Cramer got my attention when he said on Friday’s show that “the market’s got another week to run and then it’s about value.” I doubt that Cramer is following planetary cycles since he’s always made it clear he’s not a chartist of any kind, be it technical or planetary. But Cramer’s remark exactly correlates to the fact that conservative, cautious, and “value” oriented Saturn in Virgo will turn direct on Saturday ("Saturn’s Day") May 16. (Saturn has been retrograde since December 31.)

Saturn is about fundamentals and boundaries and Virgo accountability. Saturn is loss and limitation and Virgo the workforce. The market shrugged off Friday’s April nonfarm payrolls that reported a loss of 539,000 jobs and 8.9% unemployment. The number would have been 611,000 if not for the government hiring census takers, a once every decade event. If you go by the U-6 which includes part time workers seeking full time employment, about 24.7 million or 15.8% of the U.S. population are currently unemployed. And I suppose it’s just pure coincidence that a top story in the business section of The New York Times is about the “the shift back to thrift” as Saturn prepares to move direct. ;-)

Combining Saturn direct with retro Mercury’s tendency to spin its wheels could make it difficult for the market to break through the next level of resistance. However, optimistic Jupiter is about to align with Neptune, the planetary energy that dissolves barriers and boundaries on May 27, which could help the bulls keep charging onward and upward.

This week Mercury will backtrack into Taurus where it last transited April 9 to 30. Mercury retrograde in Taurus and Saturn moving direct is a good time to conduct a thorough review of all financial matters. Mercury will remain in Taurus until June 13.

Jupiter aligned with Neptune creates inflation; conjoining the USA’s natal Moon it means rising food and energy costs for consumers. The producer price index on Thursday and CPI on Friday could come in higher than expected, despite the statistical engineering.

Monday, May 11, 2009
Choppy/mixed to negative as bulls encounter resistance.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Choppy/mixed to negative in morning, then reverses in afternoon only to decline late in session.

Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Choppy/mixed; swings from moderately lower to moderately higher. Likely turns negative going into the close.

Thursday, May 14, 2009
Market strongest around midday to early afternoon before heading lower.

Friday, May 15, 2009
(Options expiration) Positive trend bias.

Bernanke and the Fed’s Bogus Transparency

Published by WallStreetWeather.net

“The Federal Reserve remains committed to transparency and openness and, in particular, to keeping the Congress and the public informed about its lending programs and balance sheet.” –Ben Bernanke’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee

Unless subdued by more dominant planetary energies in their chart, individuals born with the Sun and other planets in Sagittarius have a tendency to be frank and transparent with their thoughts and actions. Sagittarius is ruled by Jupiter, the planetary energy ruling ethics, philosophy, and religious beliefs. Even if the individual is not too forthcoming, they’ll usually claim to be and at a minimum demand openness and ethical behavior from others.

With his Sun, Mercury, and Venus in Sagittarius, Ben Bernanke talks (Mercury) a lot about transparency at the Federal Reserve, yet Bloomberg News had to file a lawsuit against Bernanke’s Fed for details about its lending programs. Bernanke fought long and hard against revealing American International Group’s (AIG) counterparties and how much they received after the government took a 79.9% slice of the insurance giant last September.

Most recently Bernanke and the Fed cited “bank examination privilege” to avoid questioning under oath by New York AG Cuomo about statements made under deposition by Bank of America (BAC) CEO Ken Lewis who said he was told by Bernanke and then Treasury Secretary Paulson to go through with the acquisition of Merrill Lynch and not publicly disclose Merrill’s larger than expected quarterly loss before the merger took place.

Questioned about the matter at the Joint Economic Committee hearing yesterday, Bernanke responded: “I absolutely did not in any way ask Mr. Lewis to obscure any disclosures or to fail to report information that he should be reporting.” This statement is so vague it is meaningless, similar to President Clinton’s “I did not have sex with that woman, Ms. Lewinsky.” Just as it depends on what one’s definition of having sex is, Bernanke’s statement could be technically true but misleading.

No matter. It seemed at least for the moment to placate Committee members probably more focused on the stock market’s newfound euphoria as Jupiter (exaggeration, optimism) is about to conjoin Neptune (deception, illusion) May 27. Bernanke obviously anticipated he would be questioned, and it’s fairly easy to deflect scrutiny when you’re being questioned by a Congressional committee and not by a trial lawyer under oath.

With his Mercury/Venus conjunction in Sagittarius, Bernanke’s communicative style outwardly comes across in a calm and pleasant yet almost timid manner. This coupled with Bernanke’s Sun in Jupiter-ruled Sagittarius opposite natal Jupiter in Gemini describes his incessant optimism and sole focus on economic expansion and growth at the expense of price stability and savings. Bernanke’s Sun/Jupiter opposition also reflects that he can impose too great a demand upon others.

One thing Ken Lewis said in his deposition that was not made public when I wrote “Bernanke Behind Threat To Oust Lewis…” to me sounds like pure Bernanke, ever eager to do what he thinks will move the market. Lewis said that once Bernanke saw BofA was likely to go ahead with the acquisition, Bernanke told him:

“’We view you as strong and having acted appropriately in difficult circumstances, that we’ll make sure you continue that way.’ He even went so far as to say ‘We want to do something that when the public hears about it your stock goes up.’ That didn’t happen, but-“

“Once the public hears about it”? Market manipulation? Sounds like the Fed Chairman did not want BofA to fulfill their legal duty under SEC rules to publicly disclose a major adverse effect in Merrill’s earnings that would materially impact BofA’s earnings.

As last week’s Wall Street Journal editorial (“Busting Bank of America”) observes: “Disclosure is not a luxury to be enjoyed only when markets are rising.” And I might add that with Jupiter (ethics) conjoining Neptune (scandal) in progressive and tech savvy Aquarius, any person in authority is arrogant to believe that their actions won’t eventually catch up with them.

As the Journal editorial points out, Bernanke chairs the Financial Stability Oversight Board. Board members are federal regulators who oversee the TARP. Neither Bernanke nor Paulson felt it was necessary to inform the Board at the December 19, 2008 meeting that Ken Lewis wanted to call off the merger over Merrill’s large losses.

Transparency was a topic at the January 8, 2009 Oversight Board meeting. Bernanke and Paulson must have thought it didn’t apply to them and therefore it was not necessary to inform the Board they had committed an additional $20 billion of TARP to BofA for consummating the Merrill deal. It wasn’t until 4:35 PM on January 15, 2009 after media outlets reported the government was going to take a bigger stake in BofA that Bernanke and Paulson informed the Oversight Board.

Transiting Jupiter to an individual’s natal or progressed* Sun can be a time of good fortune and provide a big boost of self-confidence. When transiting Jupiter conjoined Bernanke’s progressed* Sun in Aquarius in March, the Fed Chairman was honored by the town of Dillon South Carolina with an Exit off I-95 named after him. At the same time, transiting Neptune was opposing Bernanke’s Pluto in Leo. Bernanke drew favorable publicity for himself when he was interviewed on “60 Minutes”, giving the public a glimpse inside the secretive central bank. This was the moment when Bernanke said “green shoots” are starting to appear in the economy.

July and August could be a challenging time for the Fed Chairman as Mars in Gemini (action through legislation) and Saturn (governmental authorities) in Virgo transit Bernanke’s Sun (which conjoins the Fed’s Venus/money) and his natal Jupiter.

Virgo is the sign of the bookkeeper, seeking a full audit of the Fed’s books, along with an accounting of Bernanke and the Fed’s actions taken during the financial crisis. Today the Senate approved an amendment partially reversing a 30 year ban barring the GAO from auditing the Fed. The Senate’s amendment would allow the GAO to only audit the actions the Fed took using its emergency powers relating to a specific company or partnership, such as Bear Stearns and AIG.

In the House, Rep. Ron Paul recently introduced HR1207 The Federal Reserve Transparency Act, that would allow the GAO to conduct a full audit of the Fed. As of this writing the bill has 124 co-sponsors. In the bill, Rep. Paul accurately describes the Fed’s natal Sun/Pluto opposition when he states: “Since its inception, the Federal Reserve has always operated in the shadows, without sufficient scrutiny or oversight of its operations.”

Retrograde Jupiter and Neptune will oppose Bernanke’s natal Pluto which could involve the Chairman in legal issues (Jupiter) that expose information Bernanke might have deceitfully (Neptune) kept under wraps (Pluto).

Neptune represents scandals, and the July 21 Solar Eclipse will conjoin the Federal Reserve’s Neptune in Cancer. Around the same time Pluto retrograde in Capricorn will conjoin the Fed’s natal Sun and oppose natal Pluto, indicating that Bernanke is at the center of the scrutiny.

Beyond this short term timeframe, the Federal Reserve faces even bigger challenges ahead in late July/August 2010 when Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Pluto impact the Fed’s Sun, Pluto and Midheaven,** radically transforming the structure and identity of the nation’s central bank.

*A mathematical calculation that moves the planets forward in time as a method of prediction.

**In a chart the Midheaven describes a person/entity’s public reputation.

Ben Shalom Bernanke: December 13, 1953 time unknown Augusta, GA
Federal Reserve Act Signed By President Wilson: December 23, 1913 6:02 PM EST Washington, DC

No disclosures.

WallStreetWeather.net Forecast For Week Of May 4, 2009

Summary Of This Week’s Influences:*
Mercury, the planetary energy of communication turns retrograde Thursday until May 30. Information is not as clear and complete as it should be during the three weeks when Mercury is retrograde. Financial markets tend to get choppy and lack direction. Mercury retrograde means it’s time to put the re prefix in front of everything you do (reconfirm, review, repair, reinvent, reconnect, etc). Be sure to backup files and print a copy of your most important documents as computer systems and other electronic devices can be more prone to breakdowns at this time.

The USA was born when Mercury was retrograde which could explain the government’s propensity for making major economic policy decisions during Mercury retrograde periods. The TARP bill passed Congress during Mercury retrograde, and now the results of the stress tests performed on the nation’s 19 largest banks is scheduled to be released after the close on Thursday. Strong interactions during this retrograde period between Mercury and Neptune increase the probability that the results of the stress tests will create more confusion and difficulty discerning the true health of these banks. New policies and actions begun now will likely be revised after May 30 when Mercury begins moving forward again.

Analysts on average expect Friday’s employment report to show a loss of 630,000 jobs in April, less than the 663,000 jobs lost in March. Despite these projections, the unemployment rate is projected to rise from 8.5% to 8.9%. With Mercury retrograde and the Moon (sentiment) in secretive Scorpio Friday you have to wonder if the government’s statistics provide an accurate picture of the situation. Mercury retrograde could bring larger than expected revisions to previous reports.

Fed Chairman Bernanke is scheduled to testify before the Joint Economic Committee Tuesday on the economic outlook. Markets reacted favorably to last Wednesday’s FOMC announcement stating that the pace of economic contraction appears to be slowing. It will be interesting to see if committee members question Bernanke about his role in pushing Bank of America (BAC) to go through with its acquisition of Merrill Lynch.

I wrote in last week’s forecast that I thought the Fed would announce an expansion of its lending programs. Although the statement did not reflect this, two days later the Fed announced starting in June its TALF program will accept CMBS and securities backed by insurance premium finance loans as eligible collateral. The Fed will also extend TALF loans from a three year maturity to five years.

Monday, May 4, 2009
Up but starts to weaken as morning progresses, turning to choppy/mixed to negative in the afternoon.

Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Negative trend bias; improving conditions in afternoon.

Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Choppy/mixed to positive in morning; weakens and turns negative in afternoon.

Thursday, May 7, 2009
Negative followed by a midday turnaround that weakens going into the close.

Friday, May 8, 2009
Negative trend bias, but shows signs of improvement around midday.

*Last week’s summary was cut this week due to time constraints. Look for the Weekly Forecast to be posted earlier than it has been over the last several weeks along with regular blog posts again.

No disclosures.