WallStreetWeather.net Forecast For Week Of April 27, 2009
Summary Of Last Week’s Influences:
Planets appearing to change direction from Earth’s vantage point (retrograde) tend to correlate to changes in market sentiment, however briefly. In last week’s forecast I wrote that Venus moving forward again increased the potential that the gains in the indices and bank stocks in particular since Venus went retrograde March 6 could reverse.
Venus represents banking and finance, and last Monday’s sharp decline occurred on the first full day of trading that Venus was direct. I didn’t think the negativity would be that severe, but I should have known better that when you’re in a banking crisis, Venus changing direction is going to have an even more potent effect. With Mercury in Taurus, news related to banks drove the indices down as bank stocks tumbled on downgrades, and the market dissected Bank of America’s (BAC) quarterly earnings report with its $13.3 billion provision for credit losses. The Administration’s new proposal to convert the government’s preferred shares in TARPed financial institutions to common equity didn’t help matters. Warren Buffett called this (TCE) manipulation illusionary, citing that there’s no difference in a bank’s capital between common stock equity and preferred stock equity. Both forms of capital are a first line against losses. Even three merger announcements couldn’t keep the market from sinking.
The markets turned positive the following day after Treasury Secretary Geithner said at a hearing that the “vast majority” of the nation’s banks are well capitalized. Geithner said all the government’s different rescue efforts are showing “mixed signs” of success. Beyond the financial sector, corporate earnings have not been good, but the market has continued to climb as earnings have not been as bleak as expected. Microsoft (MSFT) reported the first year over year revenue decline in its history as a public company, yet the stock gained almost $2.00 Friday. Jupiter about to conjoin Neptune in futuristic Aquarius on May 27 explains the market’s optimistic hope for an economic recovery to occur later this year led by technology related shares.
The DJIA and the S&P500 ended the week slightly lower, but the Nasdaq concluded its seventh straight week of gains. Jupiter and Neptune in Aquarius this year is pumping up the Nasdaq, and “rekindling” the shares of some of the late 1990s internet/tech bubble darlings such as Amazon.com (AMZN) which recently had a Jupiter return.*
Venus rules copper which had risen just before and during Venus retrograde (March 6 – April 17). Last week copper fell on profit taking after its rapid run. However, Venus moving forward again reversed the decline in crude oil and boosted gold prices last week. Crude oil is ruled by Neptune. Its rise last week in particular reflects the Jupiter/Neptune theme that these commodities are not rising on demand fundamentals, but rather as a hedge against inflation and any signs of weakness in the US$ from our mountain of debt (Pluto in Capricorn opposing the USA’s natal Venus).
Summary Of This Week’s Influences:
Wednesdays are ruled by Mercury, the planetary energy of communication. Many events this week will take place on Wednesday. President Obama will hold a news conference at 8:00 PM EDT. Bank of America’s annual shareholder meeting takes place Wednesday, and several pension funds have said they intend to vote against reappointing Ken Lewis as Chairman.
The FOMC will issue its announcement at 2:15PM EDT Wednesday following its two day meeting. Venus, Mars, and Pluto challenging the Federal Reserve’s Capricorn Sun and Pluto in Cancer now increases the scrutiny of the Fed and its leadership. The FOMC announcement will likely show an expansion of its lending programs with a loosening of collateral requirements, as participation in its lending programs has not been as high as the Fed would have liked.
Mercury enters its “home” sign Gemini Thursday until May 13. Complete important communications and documents before Mercury goes retrograde May 7. Mercury retrograde May 7 to 30 tends to create choppy trading conditions that take the market on a ride that can end up where it initially started.
Venus in Aries makes its final challenge to Pluto in Capricorn on May 2. While the previous alignments (February 5 and April 3) were positive for the market, the final alignment has the most influence. These energies increase the probability of more bankruptcies and more government involvement in financial institutions in particular. Regardless of what’s being talked about now for Chrysler and General Motors (GM), the Summer Solstice chart (June 21 at 1:46 AM EDT) for the US looks like there are two major bankruptcy filings and Michigan is a hot spot. Unemployment appears to continue to rise over the summer.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Expect a large move with a potential for reversal.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Negative early but starts to show improvement by early afternoon.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Choppy to negative trend bias.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Choppy/mixed to positive trend prevails most of the day, but begins to weaken approaching the final hour.
Friday, May 1, 2009
Negative trend bias.
*Jupiter returned to its natal position when AMZN went public (May 15, 1997). This occurs about every 12 years. Jupiter is usually considered a beneficial influence, but the energy of expansion and optimism can just as easily turn into exaggerated panic and hysteria.
Posted 4/26/2009 05:27:00 PM